来源：市场资讯 （来源：矿业俱乐部） 镉0#28600-29600元/吨0铬99A81100-84600元/吨0碲741-751元/千克 0 铼28100-32600 元/千克0 锑0#锑锭171100-174100元/吨100002#高铋163100-166100元/吨10000镁99.9%上 海17005-17105元/吨 0 铌≥99.9%665-675元/千克0钒≥99.5%1461-1561元/千克0电解锰广西 13400-13600元/吨 0金属锂≥99%575100-610100元/吨0金属砷6705-7205 元/吨0海绵钛≥97-98%45-46元/千克0海绵锆≥99% 166-171元/千克0 1631-1681元/吨碳酸稀土44305-44705元/吨红土镍矿 1.8%（FOB） 72-75美元/湿吨 非金属报价 产品名称 矿产品报价品名规格产地涨跌铜精矿18-20%74012-77769元/金属吨铅精矿50%河南16650-16800元/金属 吨云南16750-16900元/金属吨锌精矿50%云南 18604-18704元/金属吨 湖南18554-18654元/金属吨钼精矿45%367 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date 2025 年] 11 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 非农超出预期，压制年内降息预期，金属价格承 压 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：数据真空期结束，降息预期减弱压制贵金 属价格 本周 COMEX 黄金下跌 0.53%至 4,062.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银下跌 1.47%至 49.66 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金下跌 2.75%至 926.94 元/克，SHFE 白银下跌 5.43%至 11,680.00 元/ 千克。 本周金银比上涨 0.95%至 81.81。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓减少 110,391.92 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 增加 1,269,838.00 盎司。 周二，美国 11 月 NAHB 房产市场指数 38，预期 37，前 值 37。美国 8 月工厂订单月率 1.4%，预期 1.4%，前值- 1.30%。 周四，美国 9 月季调后非农就业人口 11.9 万人，预期 5 万人，前值由 2.2 万人修正为-0.4 万人 ...

Core Viewpoint - Western Mining has successfully acquired exploration rights for the Chating copper polymetallic mine in Anhui Province, marking a significant step in strengthening its resource reserves and expanding its industry layout [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Western Mining's subsidiary, Tibet Yulong Copper Co., Ltd., won the exploration rights through a competitive bidding process, paying 8.60893 billion yuan [1]. - The exploration rights cover various minerals, including copper, lead, zinc, gold, silver, and natural sulfur [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Western Mining is a key mining enterprise in China's western region, with a comprehensive business model that includes mining, smelting, and trading of essential minerals such as copper, lead, zinc, and iron [2]. - The company has established a stable mining operation system and diversified its industrial chain across multiple sectors, including rare metals and non-metal products [2]. Group 3: Market Context - The acquisition aligns with a broader trend in the global mining market, where mergers and acquisitions are increasingly active, particularly for copper and gold [2]. - The demand for copper is driven by the rapid development of the new energy and AI industries, while gold acquisitions are influenced by its safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical risks [2]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, Western Mining reported a revenue of 48.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, and a net profit of 2.945 billion yuan, up 7.8% [3]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities reached 8.81 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.58% increase, with cash and cash equivalents totaling 7.256 billion yuan [3][4].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and rising credit crisis concerns have led to expectations of interest rate cuts, resulting in sustained highs for gold and silver prices. COMEX gold rose by 5.76% to $4,267.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver increased by 6.55% to $50.63 per ounce. SHFE gold and silver also saw significant increases of 10.53% to 999.80 yuan per gram and 12,249.00 yuan per kilogram, respectively [1][2][30]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The gold-silver ratio fell by 0.74% to 84.30. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 966,285.71 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 1,452,401.60 ounces [1][30]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 17th day, with significant economic impacts estimated at a weekly loss of $15 billion. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for further interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices [3][45][46]. - The silver market is experiencing extreme tightness, leading to a historical "short squeeze" with leasing rates exceeding 35%. Global silver shortages are projected to reach approximately 3,660 tons in 2025, with industrial demand expected to grow due to AI-driven applications [7][47]. Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 2.25% to $10,607.00 per ton, while aluminum increased by 1.18% to $2,778.50 per ton. Zinc and lead prices, however, saw declines [8][9]. - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to production disruptions in major mines, with a projected reduction of 200,000 tons in Q4 2025. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive of copper prices, with expectations of continued U.S. dollar depreciation [10][11][21]. - Aluminum demand remains stable, with production expected to increase due to new projects. The profit margins for electrolytic aluminum are improving as raw material costs decline [12][22]. Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have decreased by 1.43% to 17,920 yuan per ton, while molybdenum prices rose by 3.28% to 283,500 yuan per ton due to increased demand from steelmaking [17][18]. - The market for vanadium remains under pressure, with prices declining as steel demand has not met expectations [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold and silver stocks due to their expected performance in the current economic climate. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [6][20][47].

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has experienced a decline of over 17%, yet its year-to-date increase remains above 2.8 times [1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, Xinjiang Xinxin Mining's stock price dropped by 17.38%, trading at 2.9 HKD, with a transaction volume of 154 million HKD [1] - The company announced plans to issue A-shares and list on a Chinese stock exchange to promote sustainable growth in revenue and shareholder returns [1] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshan East, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghe Street and Mujiahe, and a fluorite mine: Kalchaer [1] Industry Summary - According to Jianyin International, recent changes in Indonesia's RKAB regulations and increased mining supervision, along with the declaration of force majeure at the world's second-largest copper mine, have raised global metal supply concerns [1] - Nickel prices surged past 124,000 due to these factors, but the fundamental oversupply of primary nickel has not changed significantly, indicating that nickel prices may face upward pressure [1]

Financial Overview - The total assets of Ningxia Dongfang Tantalum Industry Co., Ltd. reached approximately 3.36 billion yuan at the end of the reporting period, an increase from 3.06 billion yuan at the beginning of the period, reflecting a growth of about 9.8% [1][2][3] - Total liabilities increased to approximately 635.87 million yuan from 454.18 million yuan, marking a rise of about 40.1% [2][3] - The total equity of the company rose to approximately 2.73 billion yuan from 2.61 billion yuan, indicating an increase of about 4.5% [2][3] Income Statement Highlights - The total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 796.81 million yuan, up from 592.66 million yuan in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of about 34.4% [4][5] - Total operating costs increased to approximately 706.67 million yuan from 537.29 million yuan, which is an increase of about 31.5% [4][5] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was approximately 145.16 million yuan, compared to 112.61 million yuan in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of about 28.9% [4][5] Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow from operating activities was negative at approximately -59.64 million yuan, an improvement from -200.19 million yuan in the previous year [5][6] - Cash inflows from operating activities totaled approximately 587.75 million yuan, while cash outflows were about 647.39 million yuan [5][6] - The net cash flow from investing activities was approximately -53.81 million yuan, compared to -64.53 million yuan in the previous year, indicating a reduction in cash outflow [5][6] Balance Sheet Details - Current assets totaled approximately 1.65 billion yuan, up from 1.55 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of about 6.5% [1][2] - Non-current assets increased to approximately 1.71 billion yuan from 1.51 billion yuan, marking a growth of about 12.6% [1][2] - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the reporting period were approximately 395.81 million yuan, down from 502.74 million yuan at the beginning of the period [5][6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The dovish remarks from Powell have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, benefiting the prices of precious and base metals [3][41] - The market is beginning to price in the likelihood of a rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a September cut to 91.1% following Powell's comments [3][41] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary policy and debt are expected to support gold prices, with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act projected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [3][15] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while silver rose by 2.26% to $38.88 per ounce [1][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 276,237.73 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 6,992,897.80 ounces [24] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 1.19% to 87.89, indicating a potential recovery in silver prices due to increased industrial demand [1][43] Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 0.37% to $9,796.50 per ton on the LME, while aluminum increased by 0.73% to $2,622.00 per ton [6][48] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines continue to tighten raw material availability, with Peru's copper production increasing by 7.1% year-on-year [7][68] - The market anticipates a cautious improvement in consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [7][70] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at 18,920 yuan per ton, with tight inventory levels among producers [81] - Molybdenum prices have shown positive trends, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 3.60% to 287,500 yuan per ton [14][82] - The demand for molybdenum is expected to remain strong, supported by tight supply conditions [14][82]

Company Performance - Energy Fuels reported a quarterly loss of $0.1 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.04, marking an earnings surprise of -150.00% [1] - The company posted revenues of $4.21 million for the quarter ended June 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 55.19%, and a decline from $8.72 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Energy Fuels has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates and has topped revenue estimates only once [2] Stock Movement and Outlook - Energy Fuels shares have increased approximately 93.4% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 7.1% [3] - The company's earnings outlook will be crucial for future stock movements, with current consensus EPS estimates at -$0.04 on $8.9 million in revenues for the upcoming quarter and -$0.27 on $49.23 million in revenues for the current fiscal year [4][7] Industry Context - The Mining - Non Ferrous industry, to which Energy Fuels belongs, is currently ranked in the top 21% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable industry outlook [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact Energy Fuels' stock performance [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment and supply shortages have driven copper prices to their highest levels since March [6][17] - Precious metals have seen fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions easing and the signing of agreements between China and the US, leading to a correction in gold prices [1][40] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals sector is positive, with prices generally increasing across various metals [6][11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices decreased by 2.90% to $3,286.10 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 0.60% to $36.17 per ounce [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 3.48% to 90.86, indicating a shift in market dynamics [26] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 147,420.08 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 3,726,451.20 ounces [26] Basic Metals - Copper prices rose by 2.26% to $9,879.00 per ton on the LME and by 2.47% to ¥79,920.00 per ton on the SHFE [6][48] - Aluminum prices increased by 1.31% to $2,595.00 per ton on the LME and by 0.56% to ¥20,580.00 per ton on the SHFE [6][48] - Zinc prices saw a significant rise of 4.89% to $2,778.50 per ton on the LME [6] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals market is buoyed by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [6][11] Copper - The market is currently focused on copper inventory shortages, with LME copper stocks decreasing and COMEX stocks reaching historical highs [7][72] - Supply-side challenges include high costs and shortages of copper concentrate, with potential production disruptions from mining operations [7][72] - Demand expectations are improving, although domestic copper rod production rates have slightly declined [7][72] Aluminum - The aluminum industry is experiencing supply-demand imbalances, with production capacity remaining stable despite some regional maintenance [10][75] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, particularly in traditional off-peak seasons, affecting purchasing behavior [10][75] - Future aluminum prices are expected to be supported by ongoing demand in sectors like new energy and power [10][75] Zinc - Zinc prices are being supported by expectations of supply disruptions due to labor strikes at key production facilities [11] - The overall demand for zinc is facing pressure from declining activity in downstream sectors [11] Lead - Lead prices are experiencing upward pressure due to tightening supply from primary smelters and recovering production from recycled lead facilities [12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices have increased due to low inventory levels, while demand remains cautious [13][14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices are under pressure from downstream demand weakness, leading to price declines [15]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The macro sentiment has eased following the dialogue between the US and China, leading to a strong fluctuation in industrial metals [1][6] - Precious metals have seen a decline in safe-haven demand, with gold and silver prices experiencing slight increases this week [1][25] - The report highlights the impact of US economic indicators, including manufacturing and employment data, on market sentiment and metal prices [1][40] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.54% to $3,331.00 per ounce, while silver prices rose by 9.24% to $36.13 per ounce this week [1][25] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 129,023.13 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 13,038,422.40 ounces [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 7.96% to 92.19, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.83% to $9,670.50 per ton, aluminum by 0.12% to $2,451.50 per ton, zinc by 1.25% to $2,662.50 per ton, and lead by 0.51% to $1,974.00 per ton [6][46] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper up by 1.71% to ¥78,930.00 per ton and zinc up by 0.72% to ¥22,385.00 per ton [6][46] - The report notes a significant decrease in LME copper registered warehouse stocks, down 17.5% to 54,700 tons, the lowest level since July 2023 [44] Copper - Chile's copper exports in May reached 181,234 tons, with 32,721 tons exported to China [7][67] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' operating rates increased to 75.90%, reflecting a recovery in demand [7][67] - The report anticipates a long-term positive outlook for copper prices due to ongoing macroeconomic policies and infrastructure investments in China [8][68] Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum demand is under pressure, with production costs decreasing and seasonal demand weakening [9][10] - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in China fell to ¥16,374 per ton, while the average profit margin increased to ¥3,703 per ton [44] - The outlook for aluminum prices remains cautiously optimistic, supported by ongoing demand in the electric vehicle and power sectors [10][18] Zinc - The report highlights ongoing uncertainties due to tariffs and increased imports, leading to sustained supply pressures in the zinc market [11] - Domestic zinc ingot inventories increased by 0.43% to 79,300 tons, indicating a buildup in supply [11] Lead - Lead consumption is currently in a seasonal downturn, with inventories expected to continue rising [12] - The report notes that lead battery markets are experiencing reduced production, leading to cautious procurement strategies among downstream enterprises [12] Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have seen a decline of 3.25% to ¥17,590 per ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in the market [13][14] - Molybdenum prices have increased, supported by strong raw material prices, while vanadium prices have softened due to weak demand [15]