Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the corn supply - demand pattern is basically balanced, and it may maintain a range - bound operation throughout the year. The mid - to - long - term trading strategy is to maintain a range - trading mindset, with low - buying before policy - related grain source release and high - selling opportunities after the release. The support level for the futures market is 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [2][255]. - For the pig market in 2026, it is trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction under the situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The supply increase is coming to an end, and the signal of capacity reduction has been sent. Near - month contracts will trade based on the basis - regression logic, while far - month contracts will trade the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction driven by policies, focusing on the actual changes in sow inventory [2]. - In the egg market in 2026, it is also trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction under the situation of weak reality and strong expectation. In the short - to - medium term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to reverse completely. In the long term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Before the over - culling of laying hens is confirmed, futures contracts may continue the trading path of narrowing the premium, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. After over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market can be considered [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Summary 1.1 Spot Market - **Corn**: The domestic corn market has gone through five stages, including the protected - price purchase stage, the temporary storage purchase stage, the market - pricing stage, the stage of reaching a historical high, and the stage of price decline. In 2025, the domestic corn price first rose and then fell, with the price rising from 2100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2450 yuan/ton in the middle of the year and then dropping to around 2200 yuan/ton. The international corn price has also experienced different stages, and in 2025, the global corn supply was still abundant, putting pressure on the price to decline [11][19]. - **Pigs**: The pig price cycle can be divided into six cycles before and after the African swine fever in 2018. In 2025, the pig market's increased capacity continued to be realized, with the supply - demand imbalance pressuring the pig price to decline. The national average price fluctuated between 14 - 16 yuan/kg from January to June and further declined after July, with self - breeding and self - raising falling into losses again in October [26][33]. - **Eggs**: The egg market has gone through three major cycles since 2013. In 2025, the egg price declined, with a seasonal rebound in the third quarter and a further decline in the fourth quarter. The average inventory of laying hens increased, and the supply pressure was significant [37][41]. 1.2 Futures Market - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures have gone through four stages, including the rising and high - level operation stage, the high - level decline stage, the stage of reaching a historical high, and the high - level decline stage. In 2025, the Dalian corn futures first rose and then fell. The CBOT corn futures also showed a downward trend in 2025 [46][61]. - **Pigs**: Since the listing of pig futures in January 2021, the futures price has been declining with a narrowing amplitude. In 2025, the pig futures market traded based on the logic of increased capacity and supply realization, with the price falling and breaking through the breeding cost in the fourth quarter [69][73]. - **Eggs**: Since the listing of egg futures in November 2013, they have shown a large - range cyclical operation. In 2025, the egg futures price declined overall, with a rebound in November due to the expectation of capacity reduction [78][83]. 1.3 Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of corn futures increased compared with the previous year, and the open interest also increased significantly. The trading volume of pig futures increased slightly, but the turnover decreased. The trading volume and turnover of egg futures increased significantly, and the open interest reached a record high [88][90][96]. 2. Supply Pattern Analysis of the Breeding Industry Chain 2.1 Corn Market - Globally, the supply pressure of corn has decreased, but the supply pressure of US corn is prominent. In China, the sown area of corn in the 2025/26 season is stable, and the yield per unit area has increased. The import of corn has been restricted since August 2024, and the impact on domestic supply is currently small. The supply of corn in the 2025/26 season is expected to be basically balanced, and attention should be paid to the import policy and domestic grain substitution [97][104]. 2.2 Pig Market - The sow inventory is still above the reasonable level, and the capacity reduction process of sows is accelerating. The supply of pigs before August 2026 is still at a high level, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after August. The number of newborn piglets indicates that the supply of pigs before March 2026 is still abundant. The average slaughter weight of pigs is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the frozen - meat storage rate is at a low level. The import of pork has little impact on the domestic market, and the reserve meat purchase and release are mainly for rotation [117][121][124]. 2.3 Egg Market - The inventory of laying hens is at a historical high, and the chicken - chick replenishment was strong in the first four months of 2025 and then declined. The culling of laying hens has accelerated, but the culling age has not reached the level of over - culling. The egg - laying hen farming industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate is increasing. The supply of eggs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be abundant, and attention should be paid to the culling rhythm and intensity [139][143][148]. 3. Consumption Pattern Analysis of the Breeding Industry Chain 3.1 Corn Market - Corn consumption is mainly divided into feed consumption and industrial consumption. In 2026, the feed consumption of corn is expected to be relatively stable, and the industrial consumption is expected to increase slightly. The feed consumption of corn may decline due to the capacity reduction of the breeding industry, but the cost - performance of corn feed has increased [160]. 3.2 Pig Market - Pork consumption is relatively rigid and follows seasonal patterns. In the long term, factors such as population structure and meat consumption structure will affect pork consumption. In 2026, pork consumption will still follow seasonal patterns, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship during peak and off - peak consumption seasons [163]. 3.3 Egg Market - The total consumption of eggs is relatively stable, and the consumption structure is mainly fresh eggs. Egg consumption has obvious seasonal patterns, and the peak consumption seasons are the 'Double Festivals' in the third quarter and the period before the Spring Festival [172]. 4. Supply - Demand Situation Summary Analysis of the Breeding Industry 4.1 Corn Market - The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season has shifted to basic balance. The supply pressure globally has decreased, but the supply pressure of US corn is prominent. The import of corn has little impact on domestic supply in the short term. The demand for corn feed may be relatively stable, and the industrial consumption may increase slightly [176]. 4.2 Pig Market - The supply of pigs before July 2026 is still at a high level, and the capacity reduction process of sows is the key factor affecting the pig price in the second half of 2026. Pork consumption is relatively rigid and follows seasonal patterns. The supply - demand pattern of the pig market is supply - dominated, and attention should be paid to the epidemic prevention situation at the end of 2025 and the slaughter weight in 2026 [181]. 4.3 Egg Market - The supply of eggs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be abundant. The culling of laying hens has not reached the level of over - culling, and the egg price is expected to remain at a low level before the capacity reduction is confirmed. After the over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market may start [184]. 5. Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis and Outlook 5.1 Corn - The basis of corn usually operates within the range of - 100 to + 100, and when it exceeds this range, the feasibility of spot - futures arbitrage can be analyzed. Currently, the basis is at a normal level, and attention can be paid to the spot - futures arbitrage opportunity of buying spot and selling futures when the basis weakens to below - 200 yuan/ton [187]. 5.2 Pigs - The basis of pig futures mostly operates within the range of - 2000 to + 2000. Considering the supply situation in 2026, it is recommended to consider the reverse - spread trading opportunity of selling LH2603 and buying LH2609 [192]. 5.3 Eggs - The basis of egg futures has different characteristics in different periods. In 2026, if over - culling is confirmed, reverse - spread opportunities can be considered; if the culling is less than expected, positive - spread opportunities can be considered. Attention can also be paid to the month - to - month arbitrage opportunities of contracts around the peak consumption seasons [200]. 6. Option Analysis and Strategy Suggestions - **Corn**: It is expected that the corn supply - demand pattern will remain basically balanced in 2026, and it may maintain a wide - range operation. It is recommended to mainly conduct option - selling operations based on the support and resistance levels [207]. - **Pigs**: It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term in 2026. It is recommended to mainly sell call options at the resistance level. For far - month contracts after the LH2609 contract, if there is a large - scale capacity reduction, buying out - of - the - money call options can be considered; otherwise, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after the price rallies [209]. - **Eggs**: It is expected that the egg price will be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term in 2026. It is recommended to mainly sell call options at the resistance level. For far - month contracts after the second quarter of 2026, if there is a large - scale capacity reduction, buying out - of - the - money call options can be considered; otherwise, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after the price rallies [211]. 7. 2026 Outlook from Industry Enterprise Surveys - Different industry enterprises have different views on the 2026 market. For example, some pig - farming enterprises are not optimistic about the pig price in the first half of 2026, and some grain - storage enterprises expect the corn price to fluctuate within a certain range [212][214]. 8. Technical Analysis and Outlook 8.1 Price Seasonal Analysis - **Corn**: Corn prices usually show seasonal patterns. They tend to be weak in the first quarter, rise in the second quarter, fall in the third quarter, and may rebound in the fourth quarter [223]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices also show seasonal fluctuations. They usually rise before the Spring Festival and fall after it, reach the lowest point from March to April, rebound from May to June, rise from July to August, fall from September to October, and may rise again in the peak consumption season from November to December [227]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices have obvious seasonal patterns. They fall after the Spring Festival, rise slightly from March to April, fall from May to June, rise strongly from July to August, and fall from September to December [234]. 8.2 Technical Analysis - **Corn**: The C2605 contract of corn futures is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with the lower limit of the range at 2150 - 2200 and the upper limit at 2300 - 2350 [240]. - **Pigs**: The LH2603 contract of pig futures has medium - term pressure, and the LH2609 contract is in a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels [245]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures are in a low - level repair range. The LH2603 contract is in a triangular narrowing range, and the LH2608 contract has a strong technical trend. Attention should be paid to the direction after the range is broken [252]. 9. Summary and 2026 Operation Suggestions 9.1 Corn - The supply - demand pattern of corn in 2026 is basically balanced. The mid - to - long - term trading strategy is to maintain a range - trading mindset, with low - buying before policy - related grain source release and high - selling opportunities after the release. The support level for the futures market is 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [257][259]. 9.2 Pigs - In 2026, the pig market is trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction. Near - month contracts will trade based on the basis - regression logic, while far - month contracts will trade the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the actual changes in sow inventory [261][275]. 9.3 Eggs - In 2026, the egg market is also trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction. Before the over - culling of laying hens is confirmed, futures contracts may continue the trading path of narrowing the premium, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. After over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market can be considered [276][284]. 10. Related Stock Price and Return Statistics The report provides the latest prices and year - to - date returns of related stocks in the breeding industry as of November 24, 2025 [287].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In January 2026, the corn futures first rose and then declined, the live hog futures had small gains and large losses, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term. The spot prices of corn, live hogs, and eggs also showed different trends [7][8]. - For corn, the short - term spot may fluctuate weakly, the medium - term maintains a wide - range trading idea, and the long - term pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [16]. - For live hogs, the first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall, the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point, and the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. - For eggs, the short - term price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking, the medium - term may face a supply - demand imbalance after the Spring Festival, and the long - term price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Review - **Spot Review**: In January, the corn spot price fluctuated slightly stronger; the live hog price first rose and then declined; the egg price continued to rise supported by consumption [7]. - **Futures Review**: In January, the corn futures led the spot price and rose in shock; the live hog futures first rose and then fell, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8]. - **Strategy Review**: The previous strategies for corn, live hogs, and eggs were verified by the market [9]. 3.2 Corn Variety - **Macro Logic**: Internationally, the macro - drive is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [13]. - **Industry Logic**: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, focusing on policies such as reserve purchases, directional rice/imported corn auctions, and grain import policies [13]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 period has turned to basic balance. In February 2026, the spot market may become lighter. Supply is affected by international and domestic factors, and demand is mainly from the breeding and deep - processing industries [14][15]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the spot may fluctuate weakly; medium - term, maintain a wide - range trading idea; long - term, focus on policy orientation [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, the market is weak, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts have support levels; medium - and long - term, maintain an interval trading idea [17]. 3.3 Live Hog Variety - **Macro Logic**: Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy orientation [43]. - **Industry Logic**: The breeding market structure may change under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies. The reduction of the sow inventory of leading group enterprises has basically been achieved, and the large - scale decline of the sow inventory in the next few months is unlikely [43]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply is affected by factors such as sow inventory, new - born piglets, production efficiency, and slaughter weight; demand is weak after the Spring Festival [44]. - **Market View**: The first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall; the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point; the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. 3.4 Egg Variety - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and in the second half of the year, pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices [69]. - **Industry Logic**: The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. The industry is expected to transform from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding, and the scale rate is expected to increase [70]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The current capacity reduction is less than expected, and it is difficult to start a cycle - type market driven by over - culling [71]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking; medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance may intensify after the Spring Festival; long - term, the price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, maintain a short - selling idea for near - term contracts; medium - and long - term, the capacity may be difficult to clear effectively in the first quarter, and breeding enterprises are recommended to lock in profits through far - term contracts [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies previously suggested in the semi - annual report for corn, hog, and egg futures have been verified by the market. Corn futures showed a downward trend, hog futures first rose and then declined, and egg futures also trended downwards [6][9]. - For corn, the short - term price may remain weak due to the approaching peak of new grain supply, while the medium - term presents a wide - range trading opportunity, and the long - term maintains a pricing logic related to import substitution and planting cost [124]. - The hog market is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is affected by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on factors such as sow inventory and production efficiency [127]. - For eggs, the short - to medium - term prices are under pressure due to the end of the holiday stocking period, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge if the chicken culling rate is lower than expected [134]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [124]. Industrial Logic - The industry has entered a passive inventory - building cycle, with attention on policies such as reserve acquisitions, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [124]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while in the US, there is significant supply pressure. In China, there is a long - term corn supply - demand gap, and the pricing logic based on substitutes remains. In the medium - term, factors like new - year yield and planting cost are key, and in the short - term, the new grain price started high and then dropped, with the upcoming peak supply in October [124]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the hog production capacity increased, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remained high, providing rigid support for corn consumption. Deep - processing consumption is relatively stable [124]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - term: The new grain price may remain weak. The lower support on the futures market is around the planting cost of new - season corn, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat - corn price difference. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading based on new - season corn factors, and focus on band - buying opportunities supported by reserve policies. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and pay attention to import policies and grain auctions [124]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - to long - term. In the fourth quarter, focus on band - buying opportunities supported by planting cost around 2100 yuan/ton [124]. Hog Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy directions [125]. Industrial Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the hog - breeding market may change. Market share is concentrating on leading enterprises, but the implementation of sow - reduction policies and its impact on supply are still uncertain [125]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, the supply will continue to increase. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 remains significant, and it may start to ease in the second half of 2026, depending on factors such as MSY and slaughter weight [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for hogs is relatively stable, showing seasonal patterns. The increase in consumption during the end - of - year season may be limited [126]. Market Viewpoint - The hog price is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is pressured by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on sow inventory and production efficiency. The possibility and amplitude of a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter depend on the slaughter weight [127]. Operation Suggestion - The hog market is in the second half of the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For contracts before 2605, the supply is mainly determined by supply - demand logic, while for contracts after 2605, it depends on the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [128]. Egg Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices, CPI changes, and the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [132]. Industrial Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate continues to increase, which will change the industry's structure and production efficiency [132]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: The egg - laying chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The current high inventory and the low chicken culling rate may lead to continued supply pressure in the fourth quarter [132]. - **Demand**: After the pre - holiday stocking period, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose from October to November. The consumption support for egg prices may be weakened due to the extended holiday stocking period [133]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - to medium - term: The end of holiday stocking leads to slower sales and rising inventory, pressuring egg prices. Long - term: Pay attention to the chicken culling rate, as the current low culling rate may cause supply pressure to re - emerge in the fourth quarter [134]. Trading Strategy - The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Before large - scale chicken culling, adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. Egg - breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedging opportunities for contracts 2607 and 2608 [135].