1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum price high volatility may become the norm. The market anticipates and fully prices in expectations in advance, and it's easy to misstep the rhythm if chasing after the reality materializes. It's advisable to adopt a box strategy and conduct timely high - selling and low - buying [4]. - The impact of unexpected production cuts and shutdowns on supply far exceeds the new production stimulated by high profits, and the gap in the balance sheet may further widen this year [4]. - The expected scale of Russian aluminum inflow is downgraded, and the domestic net import situation is expected to ease [4]. - The rhythm of automobile production and sales at the beginning of the year is similar to that in 2024, and policies are expected to play a role during the year [4]. - For unilateral trading, the second quarter may be a consolidation period for aluminum prices, and it's advisable to allocate and increase aluminum assets in advance [4]. - For arbitrage, when there are expectations of energy disturbances, it's recommended to first focus on cross - market arbitrage opportunities and then on arbitrage opportunities among domestic non - ferrous metal varieties [4]. - For cross - variety arbitrage, the long - term copper - aluminum price ratio is expected to rise, and the zinc - aluminum price ratio is expected to fall. When short - term conflict expectations decline, attention can be paid to reverse opportunities in the price ratio [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Trading Precautions - Commodity high volatility may become the norm. The market anticipates and fully prices in expectations in advance. In the aluminum market, there are cases such as the market speculating on the expectation of Middle - East production cuts in advance and the market not following through on supply - side positive news after an actual production cut [10]. - Pay attention to the periodic counter - trend of the macro - environment. The long - term upward - driving logic of aluminum remains unchanged, but when the market's consistent expectations are too high and hot money floods in, sharp retracements should be expected [13]. 3.2 Supply: Unexpected Production Cuts > Stimulated Restarts - Overseas aluminum plants have seen more unexpected production cuts and shutdowns than profit - stimulated early restarts this year. For example, plants in Qatar, Bahrain, and Mozambique have experienced production cuts or shutdowns, while some plants in Norway, Iceland, etc. have restarted production [15][19][20]. - Supply - side disturbances are long - term risks. Aluminum is highly sensitive to energy supply, and energy shocks can have a significant impact on aluminum production. The current energy situation is different from that in 2022, and the impact of the current geopolitical situation on aluminum prices is expected to be less than that of the Russia - Ukraine war in 2022 [24]. 3.3 Cross - Variety Arbitrage - In the long - term, the copper - aluminum price ratio is expected to rise and the zinc - aluminum price ratio is expected to fall. Aluminum is short in supply due to policy constraints, while copper and zinc are constrained by the shortage of ore. In the energy shock window, the price ratio trends may reverse temporarily. The zinc - aluminum price ratio is expected to decline in the long - term, and aluminum prices are expected to exceed zinc prices gradually [33][36]. 3.4 Cross - Market Arbitrage - The supply pattern of overseas shortage and domestic surplus makes cross - market arbitrage the optimal strategy when overseas electrolytic aluminum plants face supply disturbances. Historical data shows that when European aluminum plants cut production due to rising natural gas prices, the cross - market price ratio dropped and then gradually recovered [40]. 3.5 Balance Sheet: Widening Gap - Due to unexpected production cuts caused by the US - Iran conflict, the expected increase in overseas electrolytic aluminum production this year is revised downwards. The global and overseas electrolytic aluminum balance sheet gaps are expected to further widen. The peak of production capacity investment will occur in the first half of the year, and the production growth rate will slow down in the second half of the year, while demand is expected to pick up seasonally [42][44]. 3.6 Cost: Rising in the Second Quarter - The price of alumina is expected to decline due to the release of new production capacity but will remain higher than in the first quarter due to the stable and rising ore prices. As a result, the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise in the second quarter [48]. 3.7 Import: Downgraded Expectation of Russian Aluminum Inflow - Russia is the main source of China's aluminum ingot imports. Since February this year, the inflow of Russian aluminum has decreased year - on - year, and the scale of Russian aluminum imports for the whole year is expected to be downgraded. Although the import of aluminum ingots from Indonesia is expected to increase, it cannot fully make up for the reduction in Russian aluminum imports [54]. 3.8 Demand: Upgraded Forecast of Aluminum Product Exports - **Automobile**: The annual growth rate of automobile production is expected to be around 5%. The high - speed growth of automobile exports in the first two months of this year is expected to continue. The production rhythm this year is similar to that in 2024, and if the market faces excessive downward pressure, new policies are expected to be introduced [59][65]. - **Export**: The export of aluminum products at the beginning of the year was remarkable. The export structure shows that the growth rate of aluminum products has exceeded that of aluminum materials, and the export of terminal products such as wheels is stable. The net export growth rate of aluminum products for the whole year is expected to be upgraded to 15% [68].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - On January 8, 2026, due to factors such as profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment of silver - related trading rules, the precious metals sector declined, with platinum and palladium prices under pressure. The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 575 yuan/gram, down 6.72%, and the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 460.7 yuan/gram, down 3.57% [2]. - The overall outlook for platinum and palladium prices is to fluctuate strongly, but short - term price volatility has intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and platinum was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 8, the premium between the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract and NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 18.5 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, expanding demand in jewelry and investment, and the "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term prices may continue to have wide - range fluctuations. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle provides some support for the bottom of palladium prices [4]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, price fluctuations have intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [4]. Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of the中信期货 commodity index was 2380.19, down 1.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19% [48]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of copper is relatively strong, presenting opportunities for calendar spread arbitrage. The price range is estimated to be between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the strength analysis is neutral [3]. - The reality of copper fundamentals is strong, but macro - disturbances bring uncertainties. The continuous decline of inventory and the increasing expectation of supply reduction bring logical certainty. However, Trump's tariff policy affects investors' positions. Based on the certainty of fundamentals, calendar spread arbitrage can be carried out on dips. For unilateral trading, stage - based trading opportunities need to be sought. If the tariff policy eases, enterprises can buy on dips [7]. - Strategies include paying attention to unilateral buying on dips, calendar spread arbitrage, and waiting for opportunities for domestic - foreign arbitrage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side 3.1.1 Copper Concentrate - Copper concentrate imports increased in March 2025, with imports reaching 2.394 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.67% and a year - on - year increase of 2.80%. The supply is tight, port inventory increased from 460,000 tons on March 14 to 799,000 tons on May 9. The processing fee continued to weaken, with the spot TC at - 43.11 dollars/ton in the week of May 9, and the smelter loss was about 3,538 yuan/ton, an increase from last week [42]. 3.1.2 Recycled Copper - In March, recycled copper imports were 189,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.07%, and domestic recycled copper production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined spread of recycled copper weakened, below the break - even point, and the import profit expanded [44][49]. 3.1.3 Blister Copper - Blister copper supply is tight. In March, imports were 50,200 tons, at a historically low level for the same period. Processing fees are at a historically low level, with the southern processing fee at 1,150 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 dollars/ton [54]. 3.1.4 Refined Copper - Domestic refined copper production continued to increase. In March, production was 1.1221 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.27%, and it is expected to be 1.1163 million tons in April, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Imports increased, with 308,800 tons imported in March, a year - on - year increase of 4.50%. Currently, imports are near the break - even point [56]. 3.2 Demand Side 3.2.1 Operating Rate - In April, the operating rate of copper tube enterprises was at a neutral - low position for the same period in history, and that of copper plate and strip foil enterprises was at a neutral position. In the week of May 8, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined marginally [60]. 3.2.2 Profit - Copper rod processing fees declined and are at a neutral position for the same period in history. As of April 30, the processing fee for power - industry copper in East China was 625 yuan/ton, lower than 775 yuan/ton on April 30. Copper tube processing fees declined and are at a low position for the same period in history. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,053.5 yuan/ton, lower than 5,070.5 yuan/ton on April 30. Copper plate and strip processing fees and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees remained stable [66]. 3.2.3 Raw Material Inventory - In April, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level for the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained low [67]. 3.2.4 Finished - Product Inventory - In April, the finished - product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral level for the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a neutral - low level. The weekly finished - product inventory of wire and cable enterprises increased [70]. 3.3 Consumption Side 3.3.1 Apparent Consumption - From January to March, the cumulative actual consumption of domestic copper was 3.5827 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the apparent consumption was 3.8334 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.40%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption. Grid investment accelerated, with cumulative investment of 95.6 billion yuan from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 24.80%, at a historically high position [74]. 3.3.2 Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production - In March, domestic air - conditioner production was 24.848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.94%, and domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.277 million units, a year - on - year increase of 47.97% [76]. 3.4 Trading Side 3.4.1 Volatility - The copper price volatility in four markets declined. The price volatility of COMEX copper dropped to around 20%, and that of LME copper dropped to around 13% [13]. 3.4.2 Term Spread - The B - structure of SHFE copper term spread strengthened. The spread between SHFE copper 05 - 06 contracts widened from 230 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton. The LME copper spot premium expanded, with the LME 0 - 3 spread rising from 20.23 dollars/ton to a premium of 49.19 dollars/ton. COMEX copper remained in a C - structure [18]. 3.4.3 Position - Positions in four markets increased, with a significant increase in SHFE copper positions, which increased by 33,000 lots to 550,000 lots [19]. 3.4.4 Capital and Industrial Positions - The net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC copper increased from 19,369 lots on April 29 to 21,703 lots on May 6. The net short position of commercial traders in LME copper expanded from 54,200 lots on April 25 to 60,000 lots [25]. 3.4.5 Spot Premium - The domestic copper spot premium declined from a premium of 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to a premium of 80 yuan/ton on May 9. The Yangshan copper premium rose from 95 dollars/ton on April 30 to 103 dollars/ton, at a historically high level for the same period. The US copper premium remained at a high level [31]. 3.4.6 Inventory - Global total copper inventory declined from 531,400 tons on April 30 to 524,400 tons on May 8. Domestic social inventory continued to decline from a phased high of 377,000 tons on March 3 to 120,100 tons on May 8. Bonded - area inventory decreased continuously, and COMEX inventory increased to a historically high level for the same period, while LME copper inventory declined slightly [36]. 3.4.7 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 06 contract is at a historically high level for the same period, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper rebounded but is at a historically low level [37].