投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-04 短期过热风险有所释放，铂钯显著反弹 主要逻辑：近期贵金属市场在经历前期快速冲高后迎来显著回调，此次回 调已在一定程度上释放前期过快上涨所积累的过热风险，市场情绪逐步回 归理性。尽管短期受政策预期与监管措施影响，价格波动可能仍较剧烈， 但铂金的中长期供需结构与宏观逻辑并未发生根本改变，因此我们仍维持 多头观点。操作上可关注择机低吸做多机会，不过短线需警惕价格剧烈波 动风险，建议投资者做好仓位控制。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球 铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软 着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长期我们维持价 格震荡偏强预期。 钯观点：关税预期叠加现货供应偏紧，钯金显著反弹 主要逻辑：短期来看，钯价出现明显回调后，前期积累的过热风险有一定 程度释放。从长期来看，钯金整体供需结构趋于宽松，但在中短期 ...

地缘扰动叠加美元走弱，铂钯延续震荡 据同花顺数据，截⾄2026年1⽉26⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价694.8 元/克，跌幅-0.17%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为504元/克，跌幅- 1.80%。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-29 铂观点：地缘风险扰动叠加美元走弱，铂金高位震荡 主要逻辑：据新华社华盛顿1月26日消息，美国总统特朗普称已派遣舰队 到中东地区，中东局势依旧紧张。此外日元走强对美元汇率构成下行压 力，这对铂价形成一定支撑。短期铂价或延续震荡偏强走势，可关注择机 低吸做多机会。然而新任美联储新任主席提名、美国对铂钯关税预期同样 是近期影响市场的关键因素，短期不确定性仍存，需警惕价格波动加大风 险，建议投资者做好仓位控制。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂族 金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方面， 铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定， 氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软着 陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-28 美联储利率决议临近，资金谨慎引发回 调 在地缘⻛险与美元⾛弱的双重推动下，贵⾦属板块近期持续⾛强，然⽽随 着美联储议息会议临近，部分资⾦选择获利了结，导致价格出现回调。据 同花顺数据，截⾄2026年1⽉27⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价705.7 元/克，跌幅-4.61%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为523元/克，跌幅- 2.08%。 铂观点：美联储利率决议前资金谨慎，铂金宽幅震荡 主要逻辑：近期地缘政治与贸易摩擦持续扰动，此外日元走强对美元汇率 构成下行压力，这对铂价形成一定支撑。短期铂价或延续震荡偏强走势， 可关注择机低吸做多机会。然而美联储议息会议将近、美联储新任主席提 名、美国对铂钯关税预期同样是近期影响市场的关键因素，短期不确定性 仍存，需警惕价格波动加大风险，建议投资者做好仓位控制。展望未来， 供给方面，南非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以 及极端天气风险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催 化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需 求扩张，同 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillating upwards [2] Core Viewpoints - The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and platinum and palladium prices are maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The prices of GFEX platinum and palladium main contracts dropped on January 15, with platinum down 4.11% and palladium down 4.62% [1] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices may continue to oscillate widely in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa faces risks, while demand in various fields is expanding, and the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] - The short - term palladium price may also oscillate widely. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Summary by Related Aspects Platinum - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram, down 4.11% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks will keep the price in a wide - range oscillation. Investors are advised to manage risks and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: South Africa, the main supplier, faces power supply and extreme weather risks. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] Palladium - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 478.6 yuan/gram, down 4.62% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: The price may oscillate widely. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Commodity Index (January 15, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2439.09, down 0.39%; the commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%; the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35% [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index (January 15, 2026) - The index value was 2854.45, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.13%, a 1 - month increase of 12.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.27% [49]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - On January 8, 2026, due to factors such as profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment of silver - related trading rules, the precious metals sector declined, with platinum and palladium prices under pressure. The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 575 yuan/gram, down 6.72%, and the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 460.7 yuan/gram, down 3.57% [2]. - The overall outlook for platinum and palladium prices is to fluctuate strongly, but short - term price volatility has intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and platinum was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 8, the premium between the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract and NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 18.5 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, expanding demand in jewelry and investment, and the "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term prices may continue to have wide - range fluctuations. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle provides some support for the bottom of palladium prices [4]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, price fluctuations have intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [4]. Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of the中信期货 commodity index was 2380.19, down 1.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19% [48]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the outer - market prices of platinum and palladium dropped significantly in the afternoon, and the inner - market prices showed a differentiated trend. The closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 598.5 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 2.47%, while the palladium price was relatively stronger, with the GFEX palladium main contract closing at 475.95 yuan/gram, a rise of + 1.71% [1] - The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations. The palladium price is also expected to be strong in a volatile manner due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and the platinum price was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 7, the premium of the domestic closing time of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 21.4 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference significantly converged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The main supply country, South Africa, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [2] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate widely, and investors should trade cautiously. They can consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage strategies, wait for the internal - external price difference to widen again for internal - external positive arbitrage. Also, wait for the platinum - palladium price difference to converge for long - platinum and short - palladium operations [2] Palladium - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce's investigation into the import of unforged palladium from Russia has led to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Demand shows significant structural pressure [3] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The palladium price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. In the short term, price fluctuations are intensified, and investors should trade cautiously. For arbitrage strategies, take profits on internal - external positive arbitrage and consider long - platinum and short - palladium operations [3] Commodity Index - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [50] - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 7, 2026, closed at 2846.27, up 0.27% for the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [51]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 弱美元与地缘政治风险发酵，铂钯走势 偏强 2026年1⽉5⽇GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为583.95元/克，涨幅6.48%；钯 主⼒合约收盘价为452.85元/克，涨幅8.88%。 铂观点：美联储独立性+地缘政治风险发酵，铂金走势偏强 主要逻辑：特朗普近期表示，有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并在1 月公布下一任美联储主席人选。此外，1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉首都 加拉加斯等地发动突袭，抓捕总统马杜罗夫妇并带至美国纽约，地缘政治 风险再度发酵，或进一步加剧价格波动。至1月5日收盘，广期所铂金主力 合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价22.2元/克，内外价差大幅收 敛，内外正套建议暂时获利了结。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软 着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价 ...

Group 1: Report on Platinum and Palladium Market Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 25, 2025, platinum and palladium prices showed a divergent trend. The GFEX platinum main contract closed higher at 686.95 yuan/gram, up 4.51%, while the palladium main contract closed at 529.05 yuan/gram, down 7.65%. With the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, some funds started to take profits after a significant rally, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of large price fluctuations at high levels [1]. - For platinum, due to spot shortages and relatively loose market liquidity, the price trend is strong. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, and the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward, but in the short term, the price is highly volatile at high levels [1][2]. - For palladium, the tightness in the spot market has eased, and the price has significantly corrected. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage keeps the price firm, and the bottom of the palladium price has certain support [3]. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price and Spread**: On December 24, the premium of the GFEX platinum main contract at the domestic closing time over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 54.4 yuan/gram, much higher than the import cost, and there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. However, due to issues such as hedging quota restrictions, the short - term spread may still be high [1]. - **Supply**: South Africa, the main global supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future [1]. - **Demand**: The demand in the automotive catalyst field remains relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and the demand for jewelry and investment is expanding [1]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended that long - position holders gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of long platinum and short palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for internal - external positive arbitrage can be seized [2]. Palladium - **Price and Spread**: On December 24, the premium of the GFEX palladium main contract at the domestic closing time over the NYMEX palladium (tax - included) was as high as 58.0 yuan/gram [3]. - **Supply**: The Russian geopolitical issue is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, causing a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions [3]. - **Demand**: Palladium shows significant structural pressure [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate upward. In the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase, and it is recommended that long - position holders gradually reduce their positions and wait for the price to correct [3]. Group 2: Report on Commodity Index Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index all declined slightly, and the有色金属 index also declined slightly on that day but had a positive increase in the past 5 days, 1 month, and year - to - date [48][50]. Summary by Related Content - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [48]. - **有色金属 Index**: On December 25, the有色金属 index was 2629.88, with a daily decline of 0.26%, a 5 - day increase of 2.25%, a 1 - month increase of 6.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.93% [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-24 广期所调整铂钯保证金比例，警惕高位 波动加剧风险 12⽉23⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约再度涨停，收盘价为619.95元/克，涨幅 10%；钯主⼒合约收盘价为532.55元/克，涨幅5.52%。⼴期所发布通 知，⾃2025年12⽉25⽇结算时起，铂、钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为 10%，交易保证⾦标准调整为12%。如遇上述涨跌停板幅度、交易保证⾦ 标准与现⾏执⾏的涨跌停板幅度、交易保证⾦标准不同时，则按两者中幅 度⼤、标准⾼的执⾏。市场情绪⾼涨下需警惕价格波动⻛险。 铂观点：现货紧缺叠加市场流动性偏宽松，铂价继续冲高 主要逻辑：铂金加速冲高，内外价差持续扩大，截至12月23日收盘，广期 所铂金主力合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价高达57. 4元/ 克，大幅高于进口成本，存在无风险套利机会，因此未来价差存在收敛倾 向。不过由于套保额度限制等方面的问题，短期价差或仍然偏高。12月 23日广期所发布公告调整涨跌停板幅度与保证金比例，市场情绪高涨下仍 需警惕价格波动风险。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂族金属的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-17 非农抬升降息预期，铂钯震荡上行 铂观点：宏观⽀撑叠加现货供应趋紧，铂价震荡上⾏ 主要逻辑：据美国劳工统计局报告显示，美国11月非农就业人口增长 6.4万人，高于预期值5万人，但11月失业率同样高于预期值4.5%、录 得4.6%，市场对于明年1月美联储降息预期小幅抬升，贵金属价格存 在一定支撑。此外，现货供应趋紧同样支撑铂价。展望未来，供给方 面，南非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及 极端天气风险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车 催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和 投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹 性。综合来看，在供需基本面韧性的背景下，铂价保持坚挺。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议滚动参 与多铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货短缺⽀撑价格，短线或偏强运⾏ 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务部 正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进 ...