投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-17 非农抬升降息预期，铂钯震荡上行 铂观点：宏观⽀撑叠加现货供应趋紧，铂价震荡上⾏ 主要逻辑：据美国劳工统计局报告显示，美国11月非农就业人口增长 6.4万人，高于预期值5万人，但11月失业率同样高于预期值4.5%、录 得4.6%，市场对于明年1月美联储降息预期小幅抬升，贵金属价格存 在一定支撑。此外，现货供应趋紧同样支撑铂价。展望未来，供给方 面，南非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及 极端天气风险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车 催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和 投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹 性。综合来看，在供需基本面韧性的背景下，铂价保持坚挺。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议滚动参 与多铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货短缺⽀撑价格，短线或偏强运⾏ 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务部 正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进 ...

铂观点：价格跟随贵⾦属板块波动，等待进⼀步向上驱动 主要逻辑：进入12月，临近美国总统提名美联储主席，降息再次成为 贵金属板块的核心交易矛盾。当前，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文· 哈赛特是下任美联储主席的头号候选人，其鸽派发言引发外界对美联 储独立性的进一步担忧，铂价有所走强。长期来看，铂金供给集中度 高导致扰动风险持续存在，需求在工业和投资端的带动下将稳步扩 张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性，因此长 期维持多头观点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-09 降息交易成为市场重心，铂钯高位震荡 12⽉8⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.05元/克，涨幅0.78%；钯主⼒ 合约收盘价为383.70元/克，涨幅1.07%。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议关注多 铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货紧张延续，价格保持坚挺 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制 ...

Group 1 - The core CPI data for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3%, both below market expectations, indicating a significant reduction in inflation pressure [1] - Following the CPI release, the market raised its bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with nearly 100% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and 98.5% for another cut in December [1] - Despite inflation remaining above the 2% target, recent signals from officials suggest a cooling job market, leading to widespread belief that the Fed has sufficient reasons to initiate a rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - The decline in inflation has boosted market optimism regarding a "rate cut + soft landing," with major U.S. stock indices rising strongly, and the Nasdaq reaching a historic high with an increase of over 1% [2] - Gold prices strengthened, with spot gold rising to $4,320 per ounce, reflecting both liquidity support from rate cut expectations and strong demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks [2] - The Japanese stock market surged under the new prime minister's expectations, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1,600 points, surpassing the 49,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Upcoming interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are anticipated to be significant market events, with Powell's post-meeting statements being key indicators for future policy direction [3] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations is also under scrutiny; positive outcomes could enhance risk appetite, while friction could lead to renewed interest in safe-haven assets [3] - Overall, the cooling inflation and rate cut expectations create an optimistic market tone, but uncertainties from Japan's political changes, Middle East tensions, and trade talks may induce short-term volatility [3]