Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After a significant correction in the precious metals market, the short - term overheating risk has eased, and the prices of platinum and palladium have rebounded. As of the close on February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 572.95 yuan/gram, with a gain of 3.54%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 450.55 yuan/gram, with a gain of 8.62% [1]. - For platinum, the short - term overheating risk has been alleviated, and it is expected to be oscillating upward. The long - term supply - demand structure and macro - logic remain unchanged, and there are low - buying opportunities. In the future, South Africa may face power supply and extreme weather risks in supply, while the demand in the automotive catalyst field is stable, and the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point [2]. - For palladium, due to the expected tariff and tight spot supply, it has significantly rebounded. In the medium - short term, it is supported by tight spot supply, US tariff - increasing expectations, and potential sanctions on Russian palladium. The Fed's interest - rate cut also has a positive impact [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Performance - As of February 3, 2026, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 572.95 yuan/gram, up 3.54%; the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 450.55 yuan/gram, up 8.62% [1]. Platinum Analysis - Main logic: After the correction, the overheating risk has been released, and the long - term supply - demand and macro - logic remain unchanged. Although short - term price fluctuations may be large, the long - term view is bullish. - Supply: South Africa, the main supplier, may face power supply and extreme weather risks. - Demand: The automotive catalyst demand is stable, the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity. - Outlook: Oscillating upward [2]. Palladium Analysis - Main logic: In the short term, the overheating risk has been released. In the medium - short term, it is supported by tight spot supply, US tariff - increasing expectations, and potential sanctions on Russian palladium. The Fed's interest - rate cut is positive. - Outlook: Oscillating upward [3]. Commodity Index - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2374.28, down 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2707.14, down 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2290.30, down 0.97% [50]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 3, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2678.30, with a daily decline of 1.15%, a 5 - day decline of 7.34%, a 1 - month decline of 5.65%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.29% [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - As of the close on January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 694.8 yuan/gram, with a decline of -0.17%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 504 yuan/gram, with a decline of -1.80% [1] - Due to geopolitical risks and a weakening US dollar, platinum prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips. In the long term, the supply side in South Africa has risks, while the demand side is in a structural expansion stage [2] - Due to the weakening US dollar, geopolitical disturbances, and supply uncertainties, palladium prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage supports the price [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 694.8 yuan/gram, with a decline of -0.17% [1] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a weakening US dollar support platinum prices. However, the nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium bring short - term uncertainties. In the long term, South Africa has supply risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion stage [2] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish. The healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations are expected to drive platinum prices to be volatile and slightly bullish [2] Palladium - **Price**: As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 504 yuan/gram, with a decline of -1.80% [1] - **Main Logic**: In addition to the weakening US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US investigation report on Russian palladium imports has not been released, and the spot shortage supports the price. The demand side faces structural pressure [3] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish. The spot shortage and relatively favorable macro environment are expected to drive palladium prices to be volatile and slightly bullish [3] Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: No specific data provided [51] - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index was 2529.70, up 1.21%; the commodity 20 index was 2919.66, up 1.52%; the industrial products index was 2378.08, up 0.89% [52] - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on January 28, 2026, had a daily increase of 1.47%, a 5 - day increase of 3.19%, a 1 - month increase of 8.00%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.61% [54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the approaching Fed interest rate decision, some funds took profits, leading to a price correction in the precious metals sector. As of January 27, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 705.7 yuan/gram, with a decline of -4.61%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 523 yuan/gram, with a decline of -2.08% [2]. - Platinum: In the short - term, platinum prices may continue to be volatile and on the strong side. There are opportunities for low - buying and long - positions, but investors need to control positions due to short - term uncertainties. In the future, supply in South Africa has risks, and demand in various fields is expanding, with the "rate cut + soft landing" combination amplifying long - term price elasticity. The outlook is for a volatile and strong trend [3]. - Palladium: In the short - term, palladium prices may also continue to be volatile and on the strong side, with opportunities for low - buying and long - positions. However, short - term price fluctuations need to be watched out for. Although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's re - entry into the rate - cut cycle support the price bottom. The outlook is for a volatile and strong trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Performance - As of January 27, 2026, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 705.7 yuan/gram, down -4.61%; the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 523 yuan/gram, down -2.08% [2]. Platinum Analysis - **Supporting Factors**: Geopolitical and trade frictions, and the strengthening of the yen putting downward pressure on the US dollar exchange rate support platinum prices [3]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Volatile and strong, with opportunities for low - buying and long - positions, but need to control positions due to short - term uncertainties [3]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Supply in South Africa has risks such as power supply and extreme weather. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is stable, the hydrogen energy industry is a future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify long - term price elasticity [3]. Palladium Analysis - **Supporting Factors**: The weak US dollar, geopolitical disturbances, and the uncertainty of the US Department of Commerce's report on unforged palladium imported from Russia, which has led to a continued shortage of spot goods, support palladium prices [4]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Volatile and strong, with opportunities for low - buying and long - positions, but need to watch out for short - term price fluctuations [4]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's re - entry into the rate - cut cycle support the price bottom [4]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2499.53, down -0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2875.98, down -0.12%; the industrial products index was 2357.14, down -0.54% [50]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On January 27, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2848.63, with a daily increase of +0.65%, a 5 - day increase of +1.35%, a 1 - month increase of +6.43%, and a year - to - date increase of +6.06% [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillating upwards [2] Core Viewpoints - The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and platinum and palladium prices are maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The prices of GFEX platinum and palladium main contracts dropped on January 15, with platinum down 4.11% and palladium down 4.62% [1] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices may continue to oscillate widely in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa faces risks, while demand in various fields is expanding, and the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] - The short - term palladium price may also oscillate widely. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Summary by Related Aspects Platinum - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram, down 4.11% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks will keep the price in a wide - range oscillation. Investors are advised to manage risks and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: South Africa, the main supplier, faces power supply and extreme weather risks. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] Palladium - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 478.6 yuan/gram, down 4.62% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: The price may oscillate widely. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Commodity Index (January 15, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2439.09, down 0.39%; the commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%; the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35% [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index (January 15, 2026) - The index value was 2854.45, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.13%, a 1 - month increase of 12.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.27% [49]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - On January 8, 2026, due to factors such as profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment of silver - related trading rules, the precious metals sector declined, with platinum and palladium prices under pressure. The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 575 yuan/gram, down 6.72%, and the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 460.7 yuan/gram, down 3.57% [2]. - The overall outlook for platinum and palladium prices is to fluctuate strongly, but short - term price volatility has intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and platinum was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 8, the premium between the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract and NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 18.5 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, expanding demand in jewelry and investment, and the "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term prices may continue to have wide - range fluctuations. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle provides some support for the bottom of palladium prices [4]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, price fluctuations have intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [4]. Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of the中信期货 commodity index was 2380.19, down 1.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19% [48]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the outer - market prices of platinum and palladium dropped significantly in the afternoon, and the inner - market prices showed a differentiated trend. The closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 598.5 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 2.47%, while the palladium price was relatively stronger, with the GFEX palladium main contract closing at 475.95 yuan/gram, a rise of + 1.71% [1] - The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations. The palladium price is also expected to be strong in a volatile manner due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and the platinum price was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 7, the premium of the domestic closing time of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 21.4 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference significantly converged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The main supply country, South Africa, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [2] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate widely, and investors should trade cautiously. They can consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage strategies, wait for the internal - external price difference to widen again for internal - external positive arbitrage. Also, wait for the platinum - palladium price difference to converge for long - platinum and short - palladium operations [2] Palladium - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce's investigation into the import of unforged palladium from Russia has led to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Demand shows significant structural pressure [3] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The palladium price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. In the short term, price fluctuations are intensified, and investors should trade cautiously. For arbitrage strategies, take profits on internal - external positive arbitrage and consider long - platinum and short - palladium operations [3] Commodity Index - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [50] - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 7, 2026, closed at 2846.27, up 0.27% for the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Weak US dollar and geopolitical risks have led to strong trends in platinum and palladium prices. The supply - demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are healthy, and with positive macro - expectations, their prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. However, short - term price volatility is high, and investors should trade cautiously. Appropriate arbitrage strategies are also recommended [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary Based on Related Content Platinum - **Price Performance**: On January 5, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 583.95 yuan/gram, with a 6.48% increase [3] - **Main Logic**: Trump's potential replacement of the Fed chair and the US military's raid in Venezuela have increased geopolitical risks, intensifying price fluctuations. The premium between the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract and NYMEX platinum (tax - included) has significantly converged. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity [3] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and with positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upwards. Short - term price volatility is high, and investors should trade cautiously. They can look for low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage, it is recommended to take profits on long domestic and short overseas positions and wait for the platinum - palladium spread to converge before considering long platinum and short palladium [3][4] Palladium - **Price Performance**: On January 5, 2026, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 452.85 yuan/gram, with an 8.88% increase [3] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce's investigation into unforged palladium imported from Russia has led to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provide support for the palladium price [5] - **Outlook**: Spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment are expected to drive the palladium price to fluctuate upwards. Short - term price volatility is high, and investors should trade cautiously. They can look for low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage, it is recommended to take profits on long domestic and short overseas positions and choose the right time to participate in long platinum and short palladium [5] Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2330.50, with a 0.00% change; the commodity 20 index was 2664.63, with a 0.00% change; the industrial products index was 2267.44, with a 0.00% change; the PPI commodity index was 1410.29, with a 0.00% change [53] - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 5, 2026, was 2685.97. The daily change was 0.00%, the change in the past 5 days was + 0.35%, the change in the past month was + 5.67%, and the change since the beginning of the year was 0.00% [54]

Group 1: Report on Platinum and Palladium Market Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 25, 2025, platinum and palladium prices showed a divergent trend. The GFEX platinum main contract closed higher at 686.95 yuan/gram, up 4.51%, while the palladium main contract closed at 529.05 yuan/gram, down 7.65%. With the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, some funds started to take profits after a significant rally, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of large price fluctuations at high levels [1]. - For platinum, due to spot shortages and relatively loose market liquidity, the price trend is strong. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, and the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward, but in the short term, the price is highly volatile at high levels [1][2]. - For palladium, the tightness in the spot market has eased, and the price has significantly corrected. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage keeps the price firm, and the bottom of the palladium price has certain support [3]. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price and Spread**: On December 24, the premium of the GFEX platinum main contract at the domestic closing time over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 54.4 yuan/gram, much higher than the import cost, and there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. However, due to issues such as hedging quota restrictions, the short - term spread may still be high [1]. - **Supply**: South Africa, the main global supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future [1]. - **Demand**: The demand in the automotive catalyst field remains relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and the demand for jewelry and investment is expanding [1]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended that long - position holders gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of long platinum and short palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for internal - external positive arbitrage can be seized [2]. Palladium - **Price and Spread**: On December 24, the premium of the GFEX palladium main contract at the domestic closing time over the NYMEX palladium (tax - included) was as high as 58.0 yuan/gram [3]. - **Supply**: The Russian geopolitical issue is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, causing a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions [3]. - **Demand**: Palladium shows significant structural pressure [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate upward. In the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase, and it is recommended that long - position holders gradually reduce their positions and wait for the price to correct [3]. Group 2: Report on Commodity Index Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index all declined slightly, and the有色金属 index also declined slightly on that day but had a positive increase in the past 5 days, 1 month, and year - to - date [48][50]. Summary by Related Content - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [48]. - **有色金属 Index**: On December 25, the有色金属 index was 2629.88, with a daily decline of 0.26%, a 5 - day increase of 2.25%, a 1 - month increase of 6.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.93% [50].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On December 23, 2025, the GFEX platinum main contract hit the daily limit again, closing at 619.95 yuan/gram with a 10% increase; the palladium main contract closed at 532.55 yuan/gram with a 5.52% increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) announced that starting from the settlement on December 25, 2025, the daily limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12% [1]. - The platinum price continues to rise due to spot shortages and loose market liquidity. The domestic - NYMEX (tax - included) price difference of platinum is as high as 57.4 yuan/gram, and there is an arbitrage opportunity. However, due to issues such as hedging quota restrictions, the short - term price difference may remain high. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further increase the long - term price elasticity. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward [2]. - The palladium price continues to rise due to macro - support and geopolitical tensions. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, causing a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle again, the palladium price has some support at the bottom. It is expected that the short - term palladium price will fluctuate upward [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Platinum prices are accelerating upwards, and the domestic - foreign price difference is expanding. As of December 23, the premium of the GFEX platinum main contract at the domestic closing time compared to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) is 57.4 yuan/gram, much higher than the import cost, creating an arbitrage opportunity. However, due to hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. The GFEX adjusted the daily limit and margin ratio on December 23, and price volatility risks should be watched out for. In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase long - term price elasticity [2]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. The short - term increase in volatility increases risks. It is recommended to gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage can be seized [2]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The current geopolitical issue in Russia is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. In terms of demand, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle again, the palladium price has some support at the bottom [3]. - **Outlook**: Due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the short - term palladium price will fluctuate upward. The short - term sharp increase also increases risks. It is recommended to gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage can be seized [3]. Commodity Indexes - **Special Indexes**: The commodity index is 2306.25, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2645.83, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2233.41, up 0.31%; the PPI commodity index is 1381.84, up 0.15% [48]. - **Sector Indexes**: The non - ferrous metals index on December 23, 2025, is 2593.96, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 1.68%, a 1 - month increase of 5.20%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.37% [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - On December 16, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 485.75 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 2.46%; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 423.85 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 4.73% [1] - The macro - support and tight spot supply drive the platinum price to oscillate upward. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, and the "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to focus on low - absorption long opportunities for platinum and the long - platinum short - palladium strategy when the platinum - palladium ratio is low [2] - The shortage of palladium spot supports the price, and it may run strongly in the short term. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm. It is recommended to focus on the low - absorption long strategy in the short term, but it is expected to oscillate widely in the medium and long term [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: The November non - farm employment population in the US increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate was 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.5%. The market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in January next year has slightly increased, which supports precious metal prices. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks such as power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment [2] - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to focus on low - absorption long opportunities for platinum and the long - platinum short - palladium strategy when the platinum - palladium ratio is low [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price [3] - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price has strong bottom support. It is recommended to focus on the low - absorption long strategy in the short term, but it is expected to oscillate widely in the medium and long term due to the weak supply - demand fundamental [3] Commodity Index - On December 16, 2025, the decline rates of the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index were 0.38%, 0.37%, 0.21%, and 0.20% respectively. The decline rate of the non - ferrous metal index was 0.79%, the decline rate in the past 5 days was 0.48%, the increase rate in the past month was 3.20%, and the increase rate since the beginning of the year was 9.71% [44][47]