Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly in manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics, with high supply and weak demand expectations leading to price drops [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The previous price increase in ferroalloy futures was primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Current market sentiment has shifted, with high supply continuing while expectations of reduced production from steel mills and weak terminal demand are rising, leading to a decline in ferroalloy prices [3][4]. - The ferroalloy industry is characterized by overcapacity, and while prices had previously risen due to cost factors and expectations of production cuts, no significant reduction policies have been implemented recently [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Manganese silicon inventory has increased rapidly, with 63 companies reporting a stock of 198,900 tons as of September 19, up by 32,100 tons week-on-week, although this remains within normal ranges compared to previous years [4]. - Silicon iron inventory has also remained stable, with 60 companies reporting a decrease from 70,000 tons to 63,300 tons, indicating a simultaneous decline in apparent demand [4]. - The overall production profit has improved, maintaining high output levels despite the pressure on demand, with expectations of reduced steel production potentially leading to negative feedback for ferroalloy prices [4][5]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The market still holds expectations for demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, while cost support remains strong, particularly for manganese ore prices, which have not seen significant declines [5]. - Factors such as high import concentration of manganese ore and potential disruptions from overseas labor strikes or natural disasters could lead to price increases, limiting the downside for manganese ore prices [5]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have limited price decline potential, with forecasts suggesting a wide fluctuation range of 5,600 to 5,950 yuan per ton in the fourth quarter [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of copper is relatively strong, presenting opportunities for calendar spread arbitrage. The price range is estimated to be between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the strength analysis is neutral [3]. - The reality of copper fundamentals is strong, but macro - disturbances bring uncertainties. The continuous decline of inventory and the increasing expectation of supply reduction bring logical certainty. However, Trump's tariff policy affects investors' positions. Based on the certainty of fundamentals, calendar spread arbitrage can be carried out on dips. For unilateral trading, stage - based trading opportunities need to be sought. If the tariff policy eases, enterprises can buy on dips [7]. - Strategies include paying attention to unilateral buying on dips, calendar spread arbitrage, and waiting for opportunities for domestic - foreign arbitrage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side 3.1.1 Copper Concentrate - Copper concentrate imports increased in March 2025, with imports reaching 2.394 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.67% and a year - on - year increase of 2.80%. The supply is tight, port inventory increased from 460,000 tons on March 14 to 799,000 tons on May 9. The processing fee continued to weaken, with the spot TC at - 43.11 dollars/ton in the week of May 9, and the smelter loss was about 3,538 yuan/ton, an increase from last week [42]. 3.1.2 Recycled Copper - In March, recycled copper imports were 189,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.07%, and domestic recycled copper production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined spread of recycled copper weakened, below the break - even point, and the import profit expanded [44][49]. 3.1.3 Blister Copper - Blister copper supply is tight. In March, imports were 50,200 tons, at a historically low level for the same period. Processing fees are at a historically low level, with the southern processing fee at 1,150 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 dollars/ton [54]. 3.1.4 Refined Copper - Domestic refined copper production continued to increase. In March, production was 1.1221 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.27%, and it is expected to be 1.1163 million tons in April, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Imports increased, with 308,800 tons imported in March, a year - on - year increase of 4.50%. Currently, imports are near the break - even point [56]. 3.2 Demand Side 3.2.1 Operating Rate - In April, the operating rate of copper tube enterprises was at a neutral - low position for the same period in history, and that of copper plate and strip foil enterprises was at a neutral position. In the week of May 8, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined marginally [60]. 3.2.2 Profit - Copper rod processing fees declined and are at a neutral position for the same period in history. As of April 30, the processing fee for power - industry copper in East China was 625 yuan/ton, lower than 775 yuan/ton on April 30. Copper tube processing fees declined and are at a low position for the same period in history. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,053.5 yuan/ton, lower than 5,070.5 yuan/ton on April 30. Copper plate and strip processing fees and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees remained stable [66]. 3.2.3 Raw Material Inventory - In April, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level for the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained low [67]. 3.2.4 Finished - Product Inventory - In April, the finished - product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral level for the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a neutral - low level. The weekly finished - product inventory of wire and cable enterprises increased [70]. 3.3 Consumption Side 3.3.1 Apparent Consumption - From January to March, the cumulative actual consumption of domestic copper was 3.5827 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the apparent consumption was 3.8334 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.40%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption. Grid investment accelerated, with cumulative investment of 95.6 billion yuan from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 24.80%, at a historically high position [74]. 3.3.2 Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production - In March, domestic air - conditioner production was 24.848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.94%, and domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.277 million units, a year - on - year increase of 47.97% [76]. 3.4 Trading Side 3.4.1 Volatility - The copper price volatility in four markets declined. The price volatility of COMEX copper dropped to around 20%, and that of LME copper dropped to around 13% [13]. 3.4.2 Term Spread - The B - structure of SHFE copper term spread strengthened. The spread between SHFE copper 05 - 06 contracts widened from 230 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton. The LME copper spot premium expanded, with the LME 0 - 3 spread rising from 20.23 dollars/ton to a premium of 49.19 dollars/ton. COMEX copper remained in a C - structure [18]. 3.4.3 Position - Positions in four markets increased, with a significant increase in SHFE copper positions, which increased by 33,000 lots to 550,000 lots [19]. 3.4.4 Capital and Industrial Positions - The net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC copper increased from 19,369 lots on April 29 to 21,703 lots on May 6. The net short position of commercial traders in LME copper expanded from 54,200 lots on April 25 to 60,000 lots [25]. 3.4.5 Spot Premium - The domestic copper spot premium declined from a premium of 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to a premium of 80 yuan/ton on May 9. The Yangshan copper premium rose from 95 dollars/ton on April 30 to 103 dollars/ton, at a historically high level for the same period. The US copper premium remained at a high level [31]. 3.4.6 Inventory - Global total copper inventory declined from 531,400 tons on April 30 to 524,400 tons on May 8. Domestic social inventory continued to decline from a phased high of 377,000 tons on March 3 to 120,100 tons on May 8. Bonded - area inventory decreased continuously, and COMEX inventory increased to a historically high level for the same period, while LME copper inventory declined slightly [36]. 3.4.7 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 06 contract is at a historically high level for the same period, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper rebounded but is at a historically low level [37].