金融专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 寿险产品不仅是保险合同，更是价值观念的传递，需不断扩展业务范围 以满足客户多样化需求。寿险公司通过并购扩大市场份额、获取客户资 源并提升产品多样性，优化资产负债表，提高资本回报率，实现规模经 济效应。 寿险与财险在承保标的和风险管理上存在显著区别。财险承保物体，风 险评估相对简单；寿险承保人的生命，涉及复杂的人口统计和精算模型， 存在利率风险。寿险销售更侧重于价值观念的传递，而非简单的产品定 价。 保险公司定价逻辑基于成本加成法，包括死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成 本。精算师通过分析历史数据预测未来现金流，并根据预定利率贴现计 算保单现值，死差、费差和利差是定价的关键因素。 中国保险行业经历了三波发展：2013 年重疾险驱动，2015 年代理人考 试取消推动，2020 年后惠民保冲击。惠民保以低成本满足大众需求， 对传统重疾险市场造成冲击，新业务价值断崖式下降。 Q&A 保险公司的定价逻辑主要基于成本加成法。具体来说，一张保单包括三项主要 成本：死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成本（即投资收益率）。在此基础上，公司 会对死亡率、费用和利率进行加成，从而确定最终价格。这就是所谓的 ...

Core Viewpoint - FWD Group reported a significant increase in new business sales and profitability for the first half of 2025, demonstrating successful execution of a customer-centric strategy in the Asian market [1][2] Financial Performance - New business sales reached $1.246 billion, a 38% increase compared to 2024 [1] - New business contract service margin amounted to $794 million, reflecting a 34% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit reached $47 million, marking a new high since the adoption of IFRS 17 [1][2] - Tax-adjusted operating profit grew by 9% to $251 million, driven by positive contributions from four regional business segments [1][2] Value Creation - Comprehensive tangible equity increased by 8% to $8.15 billion [1] - Embedded value rose by 8% to $6.38 billion, indicating value creation for shareholders in the first half of 2025 [1] - Embedded value operating profit was $837 million, a 77% increase compared to the same period in 2024, attributed to strong new business and operational improvements [1]

Group 1 - UBS reports that Sunshine Insurance (06963) is expected to show strong performance in new business value and intrinsic value in the first half of 2025, with new business value projected to grow by 47% year-on-year [1] - The intrinsic value of life insurance is anticipated to increase by 14% compared to the second half of last year, while net profit is expected to rise by 7.8% [1] - The strong growth in new business value is primarily driven by margin expansion, although growth is expected to slow in the second half due to a low base effect, consistent with industry trends [1] Group 2 - UBS believes that the adjustment of pricing interest rates for ordinary insurance products will shift demand towards participating insurance products [1] - As a result, UBS has raised the target price for Sunshine Insurance from HKD 3.4 to HKD 4.7 [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The insurance industry, particularly life insurance, is characterized as a long-term risk management tool significantly influenced by interest rate risks, contrasting with the short-term risk management of property insurance [1][6][17] - The Chinese critical illness insurance market experienced rapid growth due to inadequate healthcare systems and public health risk concerns, but the emergence of inclusive commercial insurance has led to a decline in market share [1][13] Core Insights and Arguments - Chinese insurance companies are currently facing pressure from interest rate spreads due to a shift in product structure from critical illness insurance to savings-type policies, resulting in increased liability costs and exacerbated issues from declining market interest rates [1][14][15] - To counteract the pressure from interest rate spreads, Chinese insurance companies are compelled to increase their allocation to equity assets to enhance investment returns, which can stabilize operations in a low valuation environment [1][15][17] - The design of life insurance products follows a cost-plus logic, where companies use actuarial techniques to assess mortality rates, expense ratios, and interest rates, incorporating a profit margin into the cost structure [1][7] Market Dynamics - In China, the number of agents is positively correlated with premium growth, especially during the rapid growth of critical illness insurance, indicating a heavy reliance on agents for selling protection products [1][9] - From a fundamental and valuation recovery perspective, Hong Kong stocks are preferred over A-shares, and insurance stocks are favored over brokerage firms due to significant valuation discounts and recovery potential [1][16] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector for 2025 are primarily focused on undervalued debt-like financial stocks, particularly insurance stocks, with a shift in focus from liability growth to investment changes [2][18] - Recommendations for future investments in the Chinese insurance sector include focusing on valuation recovery opportunities in Hong Kong stocks and selecting A-share stocks based on their elasticity [18] Additional Important Insights - The U.S. life insurance industry historically evolved by selling the underlying value concepts rather than just the products, which played a crucial role in its development [4][8] - The rapid growth of China's critical illness insurance market before 2012 was driven by insufficient major illness coverage in the healthcare system and increased public concern over health risks, particularly during periods of severe environmental pollution [12] - The decline in the critical illness insurance market post-2020 is attributed to the introduction of inclusive commercial insurance products that effectively replaced traditional critical illness insurance [13] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and dynamics of the life insurance industry as discussed in the conference call records, highlighting the challenges, market trends, and investment opportunities.