邓正红软实力表示，美国总统特朗普警告哈马斯必须接受其结束加沙战争的计划，否则将面临严重后果。这一言论掩盖了欧佩克联盟即将就原油产量做出决 定的影响，潜在的地缘溢价支持石油软实力向上，周五（10月3日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油11月期货结算价每 桶涨0.40美元至60.88美元，涨幅0.66%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油12月期货结算价每桶涨0.42美元至64.53美元，涨幅0.66%。特朗普为哈马斯接受其提议 设定了周日晚的最后期限。特朗普的表态加剧了人们对爆发更大范围冲突的担忧，而这可能扰乱来自中东的石油供应。乌克兰声称对靠近哈萨克斯坦边境的 俄罗斯炼油厂发动了袭击。 石油软实力的三重维度解析。一是认知软实力。特朗普通过"20点计划"构建的叙事框架，将加沙问题简化为"接受或毁灭"的二元选择，这种认知塑造影响了 市场情绪。但哈马斯拒绝妥协的立场，暴露出西方规则体系与非国家行为体的认知鸿沟。二是系统软实力。欧佩克联盟内部呈现"双核治理"特征——俄罗斯 受制裁限制产能，沙特保留闲置产能作为战略储备。这种结构性差异导致该组织在危机中难以形成统一行动，削弱了其作为"规则制定者"的权威 ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 当地时间8月23日，委内瑞拉国防部长洛佩斯宣布，正式启动全国征兵登记程序。他表示，此次征召不具强制性，是属于委内瑞拉人民完全自愿的全体动 员，其核心目标是让每位有意参与的公民都能接受训练，为保卫国家贡献力量，加强民众针对目前拉美地区紧张局势的应对能力。 虽然没有航母，但两栖攻击舰可搭载F-35B隐形战机，巡洋舰、驱逐舰、核潜艇有巡航导弹，对地打击火力不可小觑，可以掩护2200人的陆战队兵力遂行 登陆突击作战，占领关键要点，对于中小国家有着巨大的威胁。 马杜罗表示，征兵将在军营军事单位总部、中心公共广场、玻利瓦尔广场以及全国15751个全民综合防御基地同步开展。 据美国媒体20日报道，美国总统特朗普决定部署一支两栖中队前往委内瑞拉附近的加勒比海域，以"打击拉美贩毒集团"。报道援引消息人士的话说，3艘 美国军舰最快将于24日抵达委内瑞拉海岸附近。这些舰艇共载有约4500名军人，其中包括2200名海军陆战队员。 此前，美政府悬赏5000万美元缉拿马杜罗，称其涉嫌通过犯罪组织向美国输送毒品。对此，委方谴责美国尝试粗暴干涉其内政，扰乱和平稳定。 当地时间8月21日，委内瑞拉国防部长洛佩斯发表视频声明， ...

Group 1 - The trade war between the US and China has escalated dramatically, with tariffs increasing from 10% to 104%, causing significant disruptions in global supply chains and impacting consumer prices [3][5][19] - The US military budget has surged to $1 trillion, indicating a clear focus on countering China's influence in the Pacific region, with extensive military exercises planned [5][11][19] - The global military expenditure has reached a record $2.46 trillion, driven largely by the US's military strategies and alliances in the Asia-Pacific region [11][21] Group 2 - The US has strategically allied with countries like the Philippines and Japan to strengthen its military presence against China, emphasizing the importance of these nations in regional security [7][9][11] - China's military responses have intensified, with significant exercises demonstrating its capabilities and asserting its stance on Taiwan, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive defense posture [11][15][19] - The ongoing military and economic tensions are leading to a potential arms race in the Asia-Pacific region, with countries like Japan and South Korea increasing their defense budgets [21][24] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly polarized, with countries either aligning with the US or attempting to maintain neutrality, reflecting a trend towards multipolarity [24][26] - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of military conflict may peak between 2025 and 2027, highlighting the critical nature of this period in US-China relations [26][28] - The outcome of this strategic competition will not only affect the two nations but also have significant implications for global stability and economic development [28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Russia will use all available forces and means to retaliate against any military invasion targeting the Kaliningrad region, emphasizing its integral part of Russia [1][3] - The U.S. Army and NATO allies have initiated a new defense plan called "Eastern Flank Deterrence Line" aimed at enhancing ground combat capabilities and interoperability among NATO members to effectively respond to perceived threats from Russia [3] - Russian officials, including the presidential press secretary, characterize NATO as a hostile tool against Russia, prompting the need for Russia to take measures to ensure its own security [4] Group 2 - The chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the State Duma warns that the "Eastern Flank Deterrence Line" plan could lead to a third world war, resulting in global confrontation with no winners [4] - Russia asserts it possesses all necessary military means to ensure the security of the Kaliningrad region, aligning with its military principles and nuclear deterrence policy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Israeli military spokesperson stated that Iran possesses thousands of missiles, indicating a significant threat that Israel cannot tolerate [1] Group 1 - The Israeli military emphasizes the urgency of addressing the missile threat posed by Iran [1] - The statement reflects ongoing tensions in the region, particularly concerning Iran's military capabilities [1] - The mention of "thousands of missiles" suggests a substantial arsenal that could impact regional security dynamics [1]

以色列广播管理局援引知情人士：对布什尔气田的袭击旨在向德黑兰发出信号，表明以色列有能力打击 此类目标。 ...

以色列国防部：以色列此次空袭明确传达了一个信息，即任何向以色列开火的人都将付出沉重的代价。 ...

乌称俄罗斯将发射洲际导弹 智通财经5月19日电，乌克兰军事情报机构18日表示，俄罗斯计划进行一枚洲际弹道导弹的"作战训 练"发射，以威慑乌克兰和西方。乌克兰国防部情报总局在社交平台"电报"上的一份声明中说，根据命 令，此次夜间发射将在俄罗斯的斯维尔德洛夫斯克州实施。它补充说，导弹的飞行距离超过1万公里。 ...