Core Insights - The unobserved economy in Uzbekistan is projected to decrease to 498.04 trillion soums (approximately 39.62 billion USD) in 2025, a reduction of 7.6 trillion soums (63 million USD) compared to 2024, with its GDP share dropping from 34.8% in 2024 to 26.9% in 2025 [1] Economic Composition - The unobserved economy consists of the informal economy and the shadow economy, with the informal economy accounting for 351.04 trillion soums (291.4 million USD), representing 19% of GDP (down from 26.4% in 2024) [1] - The shadow economy is valued at 147 trillion soums (122 million USD), making up 7.9% of GDP (a slight decrease from 8.4% in 2024) [1] Sector Distribution - The agricultural, forestry, and fishing sectors dominate the unobserved economy, comprising 62.6%, followed by the service sector at 26.9%, construction at 23.5%, and industry at 9.4% [1] - The most significant declines in the unobserved economy are concentrated in the service and construction sectors [1]

Core Insights - The shadow economy in Kyrgyzstan is projected to reach approximately 308 billion som (around 3.52 billion USD) in 2024, accounting for 19.5% of the GDP [1] - The share of the shadow economy is expected to increase by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to the rise in informal economic activities within the manufacturing sector [1] Economic Trends - The proportion of the shadow economy as a percentage of GDP from 2020 to 2024 is as follows: 20.1%, 20.4%, 20.2%, 19.2%, and 19.5% respectively, indicating a fluctuating trend with a slight decrease followed by a projected increase [1]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 954.76 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.59%, and have fluctuated between a high of 958.50 yuan and a low of 951.02 yuan [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures indicates a tendency towards a volatile trading pattern [1] Group 2 - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced new regulations on cash ruble and gold exports as part of efforts to combat the shadow economy, following President Putin's directive to "purify" the economy [3] - The new rules prohibit the export of untraceable cash rubles and gold bars, with a personal limit of 100 grams of gold for individuals traveling abroad [3] - The Russian Finance Ministry noted that gold has become a substitute for foreign currency in illegal transactions, exacerbating capital flight and money laundering [3] - The plan aims to reduce the shadow economy's share of GDP by 1.5% over the next three years, generating approximately 1 trillion rubles (about 13.1 billion USD) in additional tax revenue [3] - The measures also include regulations on goods imports, cash register usage, self-employment management, cryptocurrency transactions, illegal lending, and the tobacco and alcohol markets [3] - President Putin emphasized the need to ensure legal economic activities and budgetary income, strengthening enforcement as a priority for federal and local governments [3] Group 3 - Recent trading of Shanghai gold futures has shown a range-bound pattern, with the main contract fluctuating between 952 and 972 yuan per gram [4] - The MACD momentum indicator is weak, indicating a lack of breakthrough momentum in the short term [4] - The closing price on Tuesday was 960 yuan, with key resistance at 972 yuan and support at 952 yuan [4] - Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday, the market is expected to continue its volatile trading, with recommendations for high selling and low buying within the range [4] - A breakout above 972 yuan or a drop below 952 yuan could lead to targets of 978 yuan and 945 yuan, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian government is set to implement new regulations that will comprehensively restrict the export of cash rubles and gold bars, targeting money laundering and capital flight as part of President Putin's initiative to "purify" the economy, aiming to reduce the shadow economy's share by 1.5% within three years [2][9]. Group 1: New Regulations - The new measures will prohibit the uncontrolled export of cash rubles, including to members of the Eurasian Economic Union, and will also ban the export of gold bars [3][10]. - Individuals will be allowed to carry no more than 100 grams of gold when leaving the country, according to a proposal from the Ministry of Finance [3][10]. Group 2: Economic Goals - The overall goal of the government's plan is to reduce the share of the shadow economy in the GDP by 1.5% over the next three years and to generate an additional 1 trillion rubles (approximately 13.1 billion USD) in tax revenue [4][11]. Group 3: Additional Measures - In addition to the restrictions on ruble and gold exports, the plan includes eight other measures targeting goods imports, cashless retail, self-employed workers, cryptocurrency transactions, illegal lending, and the alcohol and tobacco markets [5][12]. Group 4: Enforcement Priorities - President Putin has emphasized that strengthening law enforcement has become a priority for federal and local authorities, ensuring that no economic activities move underground and that all operations are legal, thereby securing corresponding revenue for the budget [6][13].

Core Points - Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov announced new measures to combat the shadow economy, emphasizing the importance of digital reform and AI technology to enhance economic management transparency [1][2] - The shadow economy includes activities such as tax evasion, smuggling, drug trafficking, illegal labor, and piracy, which the government aims to address through digitalization [1] - The Prime Minister highlighted that certain sectors, particularly trade, construction, and agriculture, still have insufficient levels of digitalization, necessitating accelerated reforms [1] - The Ministry of Finance's State Revenue Committee is tasked with advancing digital reforms, while the Ministry of Digital Development and AI is to establish a dedicated data processing center next year to improve tax management [1] - Promoting cashless payments is identified as a key measure to combat the shadow economy, with pilot programs for "digital tenge" being implemented in various regions, covering areas like transportation, agricultural subsidies, and VAT refunds [1] - The Prime Minister called for enhanced customs supervision and the improvement of risk assessment systems, advocating for the use of AI technology in cargo inspection to reduce human error and improve customs facilitation [1] Summary of Related Areas - The government aims to strengthen collaboration between departments and businesses to coordinate reforms in tax management, digital construction, and business environment optimization to ensure effective implementation of measures [2]

Core Insights - The unobserved economy of Uzbekistan reached 265.5 trillion soums (approximately 20.91 billion USD) in the first half of 2025, accounting for 32.9% of the GDP, an increase from 32% in the first quarter [1] - The shadow economy's share of GDP decreased to 8% from 8.4% in the first quarter, indicating a potential reduction in informal economic activities [1] Industry Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the unobserved economy's sectoral contributions were as follows: - Agriculture: 75.1% (up from 63.6% in 2024) - Construction: 35.9% (down from 41.3%) - Services: 35.2% (down from 40.1%) - Industry: 10.5% (up from 8.9%) [1] - The increase in the agricultural unobserved economy may be attributed to seasonal factors and delays in rural registration, while the declines in construction and services suggest effective measures against the shadow economy in these sectors [1]