Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump announced the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, which escalates geopolitical risks and disrupts market expectations for US-Iran negotiations [2][4][11] - Trump's statement indicates a dual strategy of sanctions and military threats, emphasizing that sanctions will not be lifted until Iran completely abandons its nuclear program [5][11] - The Iranian government has responded by asserting its readiness to counter any aggression and has called for accountability from the UN Security Council [2][4] Group 2 - The escalation of geopolitical risks has led to significant fluctuations in the gold market, with spot gold prices experiencing a sharp rise and subsequent decline due to market reactions [6][11] - Historical comparisons show that gold prices surged significantly during past US-Iran conflicts, indicating a potential for similar behavior in the current situation [7] - Despite the geopolitical tensions boosting demand for gold, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve poses a challenge to gold prices, as rising interest rates could diminish gold's appeal [8][11] Group 3 - Central banks globally are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings, with a strong interest from emerging market central banks [9] - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves suggests a structural support for gold as it becomes a key beneficiary of the "de-dollarization" trend [9][11] - The risk of an economic recession in the US provides a baseline support for gold prices, despite short-term pressures from interest rate expectations [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, stated that there are currently no plans to resume nuclear negotiations, emphasizing that no agreements or dialogues have been established for new talks [1] Group 1: Iran's Position on Negotiations - Zarif indicated that speculation about restarting negotiations should not be overstated, and Iran has not formulated any plans to initiate talks [1] - He reiterated that Iran's policy is to cease its retaliatory actions if Israel unconditionally stops its attacks, framing Israel as the aggressor and Iran as acting in self-defense [1] Group 2: Ceasefire and Military Actions - Zarif emphasized that Iran does not accept ceasefire agreements; however, if Israel halts its attacks, Iran will also refrain from military actions [1] - He expressed skepticism regarding Israel's commitment to ceasefire agreements, citing a history of Israel violating such agreements and attempting to prevent retaliatory measures [1] - Zarif warned that unlike Lebanon, Iran would respond decisively and immediately if a ceasefire agreement is violated [1] Group 3: Recent Developments in US-Iran Talks - Since April, the US and Iran have held five rounds of indirect talks mediated by Oman, achieving some progress, but significant disagreements remain on core issues [1] - The sixth round of negotiations, originally scheduled for June 15, was canceled due to a large-scale Israeli airstrike on Iran on June 13 [1] - Following the NATO summit, US President Trump announced that the US and Iran would hold talks the following week, with the possibility of signing an agreement [1]

Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader's political advisor, Shamkhani, stated that Iran is willing to permanently abandon nuclear weapons and destroy its high-enriched uranium stockpile as a condition for lifting all economic sanctions [1] - The fifth round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. will take place in Rome, with previous rounds having shown significant tensions, particularly regarding uranium enrichment [1][2] - Iran insists on its right to develop civilian nuclear energy and enrich uranium domestically, while the U.S. has introduced new demands limiting Iran's nuclear capabilities [1][2] Group 2 - Supreme Leader Khamenei expressed skepticism about the negotiations' potential success, indicating that Iran does not require approval from any country for its uranium enrichment rights [2] - Reports suggest that Israel is preparing for military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, with increased tensions if no agreement is reached regarding Iran's enriched uranium stockpile [2][4] - Iran's military officials have issued strong warnings against any Israeli attacks, emphasizing their capability to retaliate [4] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current negotiation atmosphere is calm and professional, with all parties seeking to understand each other's positions better [5] - There is a belief that the likelihood of an agreement is not zero, as both sides may have an interest in reaching a deal to avoid escalating conflict [7] - The Trump administration's "transactional" diplomacy approach may lead to a potential significant agreement between the U.S. and Iran based on mutual interests [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - LPG: Oscillating [1] - L: Oscillating [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Oscillating [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously long at low levels [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with views ranging from bullish, bearish, to oscillating, based on various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost - profit situations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, with WTI up 0.27%, Brent up 0.20%, and SC up 0.07% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors and macro - economic factors are in a tug - of - war. Supply is affected by Russian export policies and global supply forecasts, while demand has stable growth. Inventory data shows changes in US commercial and strategic reserves [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to factors like trade wars and OPEC+ expansion. Short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, oscillating. SC to focus on [455 - 475] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 19, the PG main contract closed at 4264 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream oil prices rebounded, but LPG fundamentals are bearish. Import costs decreased, downstream PDH开工率 declined, and port inventories increased. As of May 19, the number of warehouse receipts increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, it is bearish as it is linked to upstream crude oil. Technically, pay attention to the strong support at 4200, and it will oscillate weakly. Hold short positions. PG to focus on [4240 - 4275] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the cost support from crude oil may weaken. Supply pressure remains due to high social inventories despite upcoming device maintenance. Demand is in the off - season, but export orders may improve. In May, device maintenance and short - term export replenishment will lead to oscillating prices, while the high - production cycle will limit upward space in the medium term [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Policy support exists, but the market is constrained by supply - demand imbalance. In May, there are fewer device maintenance plans and new device launches, and demand is in the off - season. The market will be weakly sorted [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market is weak. Supply is expected to remain high, demand is in the off - season, and there is uncertainty in foreign trade policies. Warehouse receipts increased, real - estate data is weak, and device restarts may increase production. The market will oscillate weakly [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term. Be aware of macro - systemic risks [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton (-18) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device maintenance plans have reduced supply pressure. However, PTA device maintenance has weakened demand. Although inventory is high, the fundamentals improved in May, and it will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX to focus on [6660, 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton (-24) [21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance has reduced supply pressure. Downstream polyester has high operating loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has room to increase. It will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy mentioned other than the price range [21]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton (-3), and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton (-1) [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, reducing supply pressure. The expected arrival volume is low. Downstream polyester has high loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased slightly. It will oscillate strongly in the short term [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG to focus on [4410, 4500] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price decreased, the decline of the futures price slowed, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: After the central bank's "double - cut" and the easing of Sino - US trade tariffs, the real - estate fundamentals weakened in April. The main contradiction is the imbalance between supply contraction and demand decline. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is weak. In the short term, it will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and in the medium term, weak fundamentals will limit upward space [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG to focus on [1000, 1040] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged, the futures price oscillated weakly, the main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but new capacity expectations will lead to an oversupply situation. Demand is weak, and the inventory level is high. Although some enterprises' export orders increased, the high - inventory and low - demand situation will continue to suppress the market [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA to focus on [1260, 1290] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton (-50), and the main contract 09 closed at 2284 yuan/ton (-36). The basis in East China and ports changed [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high as device maintenance is ending and import expectations are being fulfilled. Demand has improved as MTO device开工率 has stopped falling. Social inventory has decreased, but cost support from coal is weak. Overall, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and it is bearish on rebounds [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA to focus on [2250, 2300] [34]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high as maintenance devices are restarting. It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, but industrial demand is neutral, and export growth is fast. Cost fluctuates slightly, and there is bottom support. The export policy is bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to the export quota policy and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle. UR to focus on [1830 - 1880] [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and both supply and demand increased. Bullish factors include rising oil prices, falling social inventory, and increasing开工率 of modified and building asphalt. Bearish factors are high cracking spreads and increasing supply. It will oscillate strongly [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: BU to focus on [3520 - 3565] [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral [1] - LPG: Neutral [1] - L: Neutral [1] - PP: Neutral [1] - PVC: Neutral [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Neutral [1] - Soda ash: Neutral [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is in a consolidation phase due to the balance between geopolitical easing and macro - economic improvement, with OPEC+ expansion capping the upside [1][2][3]. - LPG is in an oscillatory adjustment due to the rebound in crude oil cost and weak downstream demand [1][7]. - L is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with the high - production cycle suppressing the rebound space in the medium - term [1][11]. - PP has a weak supply - demand pattern in the fundamentals, with a bearish outlook on rebounds [1][14]. - PVC is in a low - level oscillation, with high -开工 and weak domestic demand limiting the rebound height [1][17]. - PX is expected to be bullish in the short - term as the fundamentals continue to improve in May [1][19]. - PTA is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with supply pressure relieved, high downstream polyester load, and inventory reduction [1][22]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with supply pressure relieved and demand relatively strong [1][25]. - Glass is oscillating around macro - economic sentiment, with a weak spot market suppressing the rebound space [1][29]. - Soda ash is in a low - level oscillation, facing high inventory and low demand, but with some support from supply reduction [1][32]. - Methanol has a relatively loose supply - demand situation and weak cost support, with a bearish outlook on rebounds [1][34]. - Urea has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with limited upside potential due to export policies and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle [1]. - Asphalt is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with the rebound in oil price and increased demand, but with high valuation and sufficient supply [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: On Friday, international oil prices stabilized and rebounded, with WTI rising 1.34%, Brent rising 1.41%, and SC falling 2.25% [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The recent oil price trend is mainly affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Geopolitical factors are bearish, while macro - economic factors are bullish. Supply may slow down due to the current price drop, and demand growth is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil and strategic reserves, and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [3]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ expansion, the oil price will fluctuate between $55 - 65. In the short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, with a focus on the range of [455 - 475] for SC [4]. LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,280 yuan/ton, down 0.49% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [6]. - **基本逻辑**: The upstream oil price rebounded in the short - term, but the LPG's own fundamentals are bearish. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, the import cost decreased, the downstream PDH device operating rate declined, and the port inventory continued to rise [7]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is mainly anchored to the upstream crude oil, with a bearish outlook. Technically, pay attention to the strong support level of 4,200, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and weak. Short positions can be held. Focus on the range of [4,240 - 4,285] for PG [8]. L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 19 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **基本逻辑**: In the short - term, the maintenance loss in May reached a three - year high, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved. However, it is in the traditional demand off - season, and the replenishment intensity is expected to slow down after the phased replenishment. In the medium - term, the high - production cycle suppresses the rebound space [11]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and focus on the range of [7,200 - 7,350] for L [11]. PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **基本逻辑**: The overall supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene has not been fundamentally resolved. With the weakening of the short - term positive impact of tariff policies, the market sentiment is still bearish, especially with the arrival of the traditional plastic off - season. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term [14]. - **策略推荐**: The outlook on rebounds is bearish. Focus on the range of [7,080 - 7,155] for PP [14]. PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **基本逻辑**: Next week, domestic maintenance will continue, and supply will increase slightly. Domestic demand is stable, but foreign trade orders and demand atmosphere are expected to weaken, and the inventory reduction speed will slow down. The price is expected to be stable, and the policy expectation may weaken [17]. - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term. Focus on the range of [4,950 - 5,050] for V [17]. PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,625 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract oscillated to close at 6,744 (- 18) yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 (+ 18) yuan/ton [18]. - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the supply pressure is relieved. The processing difference has improved, but it is still at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand side is weak due to the large number of PTA device maintenance. The inventory is high compared to the same period of last year but is at a high level in the past five years [19]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [6,750 - 6,880] for PX [20]. PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA price in East China was 4,995 (- 35) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,774 (- 24) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 (- 11) yuan/ton [21]. - **基本逻辑**: The PTA device maintenance is high, and the supply pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester load is high, and the terminal weaving operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory has decreased, and the processing fee is neutral with room for improvement [22]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [4,770 - 4,860] for TA [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,568 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,460 (- 1) yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 (- 2) yuan/ton [24]. - **基本逻辑**: The recent device maintenance and load reduction have increased, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. The arrival volume is low compared to the same period. The demand side is relatively good, with high downstream polyester load and the terminal weaving operating rate stopping falling and rebounding. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory is in a downward trend [25]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [4,460 - 4,560] for EG [26]. Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation decreased, the futures price oscillated weakly, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **基本逻辑**: At the macro level, the macro - economic pressure has eased, and the market risk preference and commodity sentiment have recovered. However, the main contradiction in the glass market is the contraction of supply and the decline of demand. The downstream demand is insufficient, and the inventory is concentrated in the upstream and mid - stream. With the arrival of the rainy season off - season, the spot market is weak [29]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [1,000 - 1,040] for FG [29]. Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the futures price oscillated weakly, the basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [31]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply of soda ash has decreased, which provides some support for the futures price. However, the new capacity release expectation is strong, and the demand is still weak. The current inventory level is still at an absolute high, and the cost center has moved down, which suppresses the futures price [32]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to whether there are new drivers after the futures market fully prices in the supply decline. If there is a short - term rebound, it will provide a better opportunity for short - selling. Focus on the range of [1,280 - 1,310] for SA [32]. Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,375 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,284 (- 36) yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 (+ 17) yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 (- 14) yuan/ton [33]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply pressure of methanol is large, with high device operating rates and expected increases in imports. The demand has improved, with the MTO device operating rate stopping falling. The social inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak due to the sufficient supply of coal [34]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [2,260 - 2,310] for MA [35].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The report believes that the crude oil 2507 contract will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term being in a state of shock, and intraday being shock - weak [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Directory Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to a month): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be shock - weak and run weakly [1][5]. Core Logic - Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the crude oil demand forecast is weak. With the expectation of a soon - to - be - reached Iran - US nuclear negotiation and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the cease - fire between the Yemeni Houthi and the US, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have weakened, and the crude oil premium has declined. With the dominance of bearish factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Monday [5]. Price Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a shock - consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.30% to 462.5 yuan per barrel [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian Foreign Minister, Zarif, highlighted serious issues in the negotiations with the U.S., particularly the contradictory positions taken by the U.S. during talks [1] Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - An unnamed Iranian official indicated that the U.S. has not shown "sincerity" in recent indirect negotiations, leading Iran to prepare for the next phase due to unsatisfactory outcomes [1] - The U.S. has provided vague and brief responses to Iran's questions, neglecting key suggestions from the Iranian side and frequently changing its stance during negotiations [1] Group 2: Future Implications - U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs, Witte, warned that if the fourth round of indirect negotiations on November 11 does not yield results, the U.S. will adopt a different approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian Foreign Minister, Amir-Abdollahian, stated that the recent indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have progressed well, focusing on technical details related to nuclear issues and sanctions relief [1] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - The third round of indirect negotiations took place in Muscat, Oman, and was described as more serious than the previous round [1] - Both Iranian and U.S. delegations submitted written questions and received responses, indicating a structured approach to the discussions [1] - The Iranian Foreign Minister expressed cautious optimism about the negotiations, emphasizing that Iran will not accept any topics outside of nuclear issues and sanctions [1] Group 2: Key Issues and Challenges - There are significant differences between Iran and the U.S. on certain topics, while other issues are less contentious [1] - The focus remains strictly on nuclear matters and sanctions, with no other topics being considered for discussion [1] - Both parties are satisfied with the negotiation process thus far, suggesting a potential for future agreements [1]

当地时间4月21日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃就美伊关系、地区局势等举行新闻发布会。巴加埃表示， 在伊朗与美国的谈判中，伊朗的基本要求是美国解除对伊朗的非法制裁。伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗与美国的间接会谈只局限于核问题和解除制裁领域，不会涉及其他议题。美国对伊朗的压迫性 制裁毫无根据，如果制裁是基于对伊朗和平核计划的担忧，则该议题可以得到解决。在23日举行的专家 级技术层面谈判中，双方仍会讨论协议框架等细节，并进一步了解各方立场。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - The second round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding the nuclear issue concluded on the afternoon of the 19th, with reports indicating that the results were constructive, leading to plans for a subsequent round of talks in the coming days [1][4] - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized that the duration of the negotiations depends on the progress made, and Iran is prepared to engage seriously and sincerely to lift what it considers unjust sanctions imposed by the U.S. [4][5] - The negotiations are taking place in Rome, Italy, and are being conducted indirectly, with Oman acting as an intermediary to relay messages between the Iranian and U.S. negotiating teams [5] Group 2 - Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes and is willing to cooperate to alleviate any concerns regarding the nature of its peaceful nuclear program [4] - The Iranian negotiating team is committed to protecting Iran's technological and nuclear assets while ensuring that any agreement to lift sanctions is enforceable [4]