Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump announced the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, which escalates geopolitical risks and disrupts market expectations for US-Iran negotiations [2][4][11] - Trump's statement indicates a dual strategy of sanctions and military threats, emphasizing that sanctions will not be lifted until Iran completely abandons its nuclear program [5][11] - The Iranian government has responded by asserting its readiness to counter any aggression and has called for accountability from the UN Security Council [2][4] Group 2 - The escalation of geopolitical risks has led to significant fluctuations in the gold market, with spot gold prices experiencing a sharp rise and subsequent decline due to market reactions [6][11] - Historical comparisons show that gold prices surged significantly during past US-Iran conflicts, indicating a potential for similar behavior in the current situation [7] - Despite the geopolitical tensions boosting demand for gold, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve poses a challenge to gold prices, as rising interest rates could diminish gold's appeal [8][11] Group 3 - Central banks globally are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings, with a strong interest from emerging market central banks [9] - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves suggests a structural support for gold as it becomes a key beneficiary of the "de-dollarization" trend [9][11] - The risk of an economic recession in the US provides a baseline support for gold prices, despite short-term pressures from interest rate expectations [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, stated that there are currently no plans to resume nuclear negotiations, emphasizing that no agreements or dialogues have been established for new talks [1] Group 1: Iran's Position on Negotiations - Zarif indicated that speculation about restarting negotiations should not be overstated, and Iran has not formulated any plans to initiate talks [1] - He reiterated that Iran's policy is to cease its retaliatory actions if Israel unconditionally stops its attacks, framing Israel as the aggressor and Iran as acting in self-defense [1] Group 2: Ceasefire and Military Actions - Zarif emphasized that Iran does not accept ceasefire agreements; however, if Israel halts its attacks, Iran will also refrain from military actions [1] - He expressed skepticism regarding Israel's commitment to ceasefire agreements, citing a history of Israel violating such agreements and attempting to prevent retaliatory measures [1] - Zarif warned that unlike Lebanon, Iran would respond decisively and immediately if a ceasefire agreement is violated [1] Group 3: Recent Developments in US-Iran Talks - Since April, the US and Iran have held five rounds of indirect talks mediated by Oman, achieving some progress, but significant disagreements remain on core issues [1] - The sixth round of negotiations, originally scheduled for June 15, was canceled due to a large-scale Israeli airstrike on Iran on June 13 [1] - Following the NATO summit, US President Trump announced that the US and Iran would hold talks the following week, with the possibility of signing an agreement [1]

Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader's political advisor, Shamkhani, stated that Iran is willing to permanently abandon nuclear weapons and destroy its high-enriched uranium stockpile as a condition for lifting all economic sanctions [1] - The fifth round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. will take place in Rome, with previous rounds having shown significant tensions, particularly regarding uranium enrichment [1][2] - Iran insists on its right to develop civilian nuclear energy and enrich uranium domestically, while the U.S. has introduced new demands limiting Iran's nuclear capabilities [1][2] Group 2 - Supreme Leader Khamenei expressed skepticism about the negotiations' potential success, indicating that Iran does not require approval from any country for its uranium enrichment rights [2] - Reports suggest that Israel is preparing for military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, with increased tensions if no agreement is reached regarding Iran's enriched uranium stockpile [2][4] - Iran's military officials have issued strong warnings against any Israeli attacks, emphasizing their capability to retaliate [4] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current negotiation atmosphere is calm and professional, with all parties seeking to understand each other's positions better [5] - There is a belief that the likelihood of an agreement is not zero, as both sides may have an interest in reaching a deal to avoid escalating conflict [7] - The Trump administration's "transactional" diplomacy approach may lead to a potential significant agreement between the U.S. and Iran based on mutual interests [7]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 多空交织，油价盘整。美伊核问题谈判取得进展，地缘缓和；中美关税超预期下降，宏 | | | | 观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产，油价上方空间有限。SC【455-475】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 成本端原油反弹 VS 下游需求不佳，LPG 震荡调整。成本端原油反弹，但供需基本面偏空， | | | | 下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库，仓单量不断上升。PG【4240-4275】 | | L | 5 震荡 | 月下旬装置检修计划增多，叠加短期出口补库支撑，预期盘面区间震荡；中期看，高投 | | | | 产周期压制反弹空间，关注高空机会。L【7200-7300】 | | PP | 5 偏弱 | 月下旬装置计划检修偏少叠加月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基本面供 | | | | 需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7020-7120】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 仓单大量增加，地产数据疲软，本周装置重启计划增多，开工存上行预期，出口尚存不 | | | | 确定性，盘面 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 多空交织，油价盘整。美伊核问题谈判取得进展，地缘缓和；中美关税超预期下降，宏 | | | | 观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产，油价上方空间有限。SC【455-475】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 成本端原油反弹 VS 下游需求不佳，LPG 震荡调整。成本端原油反弹，供需基本面偏空， | | | | 下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库。PG【4240-4285】 | | L | 5 震荡 | 月下旬装置检修计划增多，叠加短期出口补库支撑，预期盘面区间震荡；中期看，高投 | | | | 产周期压制反弹空间，关注高空机会。L【7200-7350】 | | PP | 5 震荡 | 月下旬装置计划检修偏少叠加月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基本面供 | | | | 需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7080-7155】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 本周装置重启计划增多，开工存上行预期，地板出口预期好转，盘面低估值支撑。高开 | | | | 工叠加弱内需压制反弹高度，关注 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The report believes that the crude oil 2507 contract will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term being in a state of shock, and intraday being shock - weak [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Directory Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to a month): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be shock - weak and run weakly [1][5]. Core Logic - Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the crude oil demand forecast is weak. With the expectation of a soon - to - be - reached Iran - US nuclear negotiation and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the cease - fire between the Yemeni Houthi and the US, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have weakened, and the crude oil premium has declined. With the dominance of bearish factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Monday [5]. Price Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a shock - consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.30% to 462.5 yuan per barrel [5].

伊朗外长阿拉格齐在前往阿曼前对媒体表示，美国在谈判中立场矛盾，这是谈判中存在的严重问题之 一。据美国媒体10日消息，一名不愿透露姓名的伊朗官员表示，美国在近期美伊间接谈判中没有展 现"真诚实意"，伊朗方面正在为谈判没有取得预期结果做下一阶段准备。这名伊朗官员表示，美方对伊 方提出的问题回答笼统且简短，忽视伊方的主要建议，并在谈判过程中不断改变立场。美国中东问题特 使威特科夫9日曾警告，如果11日举行的美伊第四轮间接谈判没有成果，那么美方将采取不同的路线。 (央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian Foreign Minister, Amir-Abdollahian, stated that the recent indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have progressed well, focusing on technical details related to nuclear issues and sanctions relief [1] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - The third round of indirect negotiations took place in Muscat, Oman, and was described as more serious than the previous round [1] - Both Iranian and U.S. delegations submitted written questions and received responses, indicating a structured approach to the discussions [1] - The Iranian Foreign Minister expressed cautious optimism about the negotiations, emphasizing that Iran will not accept any topics outside of nuclear issues and sanctions [1] Group 2: Key Issues and Challenges - There are significant differences between Iran and the U.S. on certain topics, while other issues are less contentious [1] - The focus remains strictly on nuclear matters and sanctions, with no other topics being considered for discussion [1] - Both parties are satisfied with the negotiation process thus far, suggesting a potential for future agreements [1]