Group 1: Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales net increase was 72.45 million tons in the week ended September 18, in line with expectations. The current - market - year sales net increase was 72.45 million tons, and the next - year sales net increase was 0 tons. The export shipment was 51.24 million tons [1] - US soybean meal export sales net increase was 22.62 million tons in the week ended September 18, in line with expectations. The current - market - year sales net increase was 7.96 million tons, up 156% from the previous week and 196% from the four - week average. The next - year sales net increase was 14.66 million tons. The export shipment was 22.85 million tons, down 3% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average. The current - market - year new sales were 10.69 million tons, and the next - market - year new sales were 23.5 million tons [1] - Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high due to the suspension of export taxes. The 2024/25 export sales declarations exceeded 1,010 million tons, the highest since 2017/18 [1] - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's September 1 - 20 crude palm oil production decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month. The yield in the Malay Peninsula declined by 8.23%, while that in East Malaysia increased by 2.64%, with Sabah up 0.73% and Sarawak up 7.63% [1] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's September 1 - 25 palm oil exports increased by 11.3% month - on - month, reaching 1,185,422 tons [1] - ITS reported that Malaysia's September 1 - 25 palm oil exports increased by 12.9% month - on - month, reaching 1,288,462 tons [1] - Argentina re - imposed export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a $7 billion sales cap [1] - India purchased 30 million tons of soybean oil from Argentina from Tuesday to Wednesday, a record - high single - purchase volume. The oil will be delivered from October to March next year at a price of $1100 - 1120 per ton (CIF) [1] - The EU Commission raised the EU's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 1,990 million tons from 1,880 million tons, while keeping the import forecast at 580 million tons [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of various agricultural products in different regions from September 19 - 25, 2025 are presented, including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Argentine government has decided to eliminate export taxes on certain agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, and wheat, before October 31. This policy aims to enhance foreign exchange supply and stabilize the local currency, which may impact global soybean and soybean meal prices [5][7]. Group 1: Argentine Export Policy - The export tax on soybeans was previously set at 26%, and for soybean meal, it was 24.5%. The removal of these taxes is expected to provide a price advantage for Argentine soybeans, potentially affecting the pricing of soybean meal in the domestic market [5][7]. - Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean meal and oil, holding 36% and 46% of the global market share, respectively. However, China's imports of soybean meal from Argentina are minimal, with only 32,000 tons expected in 2024 [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent policy change may exacerbate the already pessimistic outlook for U.S. soybean exports, as China has halted purchases of U.S. soybeans due to trade tensions. This situation creates a narrow competitive window for U.S. soybeans before Brazilian crops become available [10][11]. - The average export of Argentine soybeans from September to December over the past five years is only 1.46 million tons, indicating that the supply shock from Argentina may be limited despite the price advantages [10][11]. Group 3: Price and Supply Analysis - The current domestic inquiry for soybeans is focused on shipments from South America for October and November, with an estimated shortfall of 3.5 million tons for November shipments. The profitability of Brazilian soybeans has worsened, while Argentine soybeans show a significant profitability advantage [11][12]. - The estimated soybean arrivals for September to November are projected at 10.3 million tons, 9 million tons, and 7.5 million tons, respectively, indicating ongoing supply pressure in the near term [12].

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's temporary suspension of export tariffs on agricultural products is expected to enhance the competitiveness of its soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal, putting additional pressure on the U.S. soybean market, which is already facing challenges due to reduced demand from China [2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Global Soybean Market - Argentina announced a temporary suspension of export tariffs on soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, and wheat until October 31, with an estimated export value of $7 billion [2]. - The suspension will reduce export tariffs on Argentine soybeans from 26% to 0%, and on soybean oil from 24.5% to 0%, significantly increasing their competitiveness [2]. - The U.S. soybean market is under pressure as it faces heightened competition from Argentina, especially given the current lack of Chinese purchases [2][4]. Group 2: Domestic Market Reactions - The decline in U.S. soybean prices has led to a decrease in domestic import costs for soybeans, with the theoretical cost of imported U.S. soybeans dropping to 4,437 yuan, a decrease of 52 yuan [3]. - Domestic soybean meal prices have also been affected, with significant drops observed across various oilseed products, including a more than 4% decline in No. 2 yellow soybeans [1][3]. - Despite the negative impact, there are some supportive factors in the domestic market, such as increased trading volumes and price rebounds in soybean meal due to pre-holiday stockpiling [5][6]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The U.S. soybean crop is facing challenges, including lower quality ratings and slow harvesting progress, which may provide some support to prices [4]. - Analysts suggest that while the market is currently under pressure, the potential for a rebound exists due to seasonal factors and the possibility of reduced U.S. soybean yields [6]. - The overall supply-demand dynamics in the fourth quarter are expected to tighten, which could enhance cost support for soybean meal [6].

Group 1: Report Core View - Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to reach 1,205 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 1,211 million tons, and the July soybean meal exports are expected to reach 213 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 240 million tons [1] - Argentina will resume soybean and by - product exports once the government officially implements the weekend - announced policy of reducing withholding tax. The soybean export withholding tax rate will be reduced from 33% to 26%, and that of soybean by - products from 31% to 24.5% [1] - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in June 2025 was 856,096 tons, a 3% increase from the previous month and a 10.27% increase year - on - year. Rapeseed oil production was 364,592 tons, a 3.22% month - on - month increase and an 8.86% year - on - year increase. Rapeseed meal production was 507,038 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month increase and a 13.32% year - on - year increase [1] - The EU and Indonesia have reached an agreement. The EU will reduce the tax on Indonesian palm oil to 0% under the yet - to - be - signed CEPA, with a quota system. Any palm oil exceeding the quota will face a 3% tariff [1] Group 2: Spot Price - From July 23 to July 29, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu showed different fluctuations [4] Group 3: Other Information - There are data on oilseeds basis, oilseeds and fats price spreads, and protein meal basis, but no specific data content is provided [7][8][12]