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油脂油料早报-20260209
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 01:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress is faster than last year, with a national harvest rate of 16.55% and Mato Grosso state reaching 39.61% as of February 6, but there are regional differences in progress [1] - Despite slow farmer sales, Brazil's soybean exports in February 2026 are expected to soar, with an estimated 1 - 2 month export volume of 14 million tons and a projected annual export of 112 million tons [1] - Canada's rapeseed inventory increased by 18.1% year - on - year to 15.6 million tons as of December 31, 2025, while exports decreased by 36.1% to 2.8 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production from February 1 - 5, 2026, increased by 7.65% month - on - month [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate is 16.55%, higher than 9.84% last year, with good yield in most regions but harvest in the central - north and Parana state being affected [1] - Mato Grosso's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate reached 39.61% as of February 6, far higher than last year and the five - year average, with a 14.64 - percentage - point increase this week [1] - Brazil's soybean exports in February 2026 are expected to increase. Although farmer sales are slow, the 1 - 2 month export volume may reach 14 million tons, and the annual export is expected to be 112 million tons. The current sales rate is lower than the historical average [1] - Canada's rapeseed inventory increased by 18.1% year - on - year to 15.6 million tons as of December 31, 2025, mainly due to a 21.2% increase in farm inventory. Exports decreased by 36.1% to 2.8 million tons, likely due to Chinese tariffs [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production from February 1 - 5, 2026, increased by 7.65% month - on - month, with a 5.71% increase in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.37% increase in oil extraction rate [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soymeal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 2 - 6, 2026, are provided, with price fluctuations during this period [2] Other Information - Information on main - producing country precipitation, imported soybean crushing profit, and grease import profit is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [1] - Information on grease basis, grease - oilseed price difference, and protein meal basis is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [6][8][12]
油脂油料早报-20260202
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 01:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week of January 30, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 24.97% of the sown area, much higher than 12.20% in the same period last year and also exceeding the five - year average. The single - week harvest progress advanced 11.09 percentage points, and the harvest in all regions of the state is accelerating [1]. - Consulting firm Expana raised the forecast of the EU's 2026/27 rapeseed production from the initial estimate of 20.8 million tons at the end of November 2025 to 20.9 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. It is 2% higher than the 20.5 million tons in the previous year due to a significant increase in the sown area [1]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in February at $918.47 per ton, higher than $915.64 per ton in January. The export tariff of crude palm oil in February remains at $74 per ton, and an additional 10% special export tax is also levied [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **Soybean Harvest in Mato Grosso**: As of January 30, the 2025/26 soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 24.97% of the sown area, with a single - week progress of 11.09 percentage points. The fastest - harvesting regions are the north - central (35.41%) and western (36.70%) parts of the state [1]. - **EU Rapeseed Production Forecast**: Expana raised the EU's 2026/27 rapeseed production forecast to 20.9 million tons. The sown area is expected to increase by 6.6% to 6.5 million hectares, while the yield per hectare is expected to decrease by 5.9% to 3.2 tons per hectare [1]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Indonesia raised the February reference price of crude palm oil to $918.47 per ton, with an export tariff of $74 per ton and an additional 10% special export tax [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 26 to January 30, 2026 [2]. Protein Meal Basis No detailed information provided [3]. Fat Basis No detailed information provided [6]. Fat and Oil Futures Spread No detailed information provided [8].
棕榈油:短期利空有限,关注减产兑现节奏,豆油:美豆题材不足,反弹高度受限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 02:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are limited, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production cuts [1] - Soybean oil: There are insufficient themes for US soybeans, and the rebound height is limited [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - time closing price was 8,710 yuan/ton with a 0.72% change; soybean oil's daytime closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and night - time closing price was 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.13% change; rapeseed oil's daytime closing price was 8,902 yuan/ton with a - 1.78% change, and night - time closing price was 8,922 yuan/ton with a 0.22% change. Malaysian palm oil's daytime closing price was 4,054 ringgit/ton with a 1.86% change, and night - time closing price was 4,093 ringgit/ton with a 0.64% change. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 52.51 cents/pound with a - 0.19% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 358,548 lots with a decrease of 212,017 lots, and open interest was 413,122 lots with a decrease of 1,957 lots; soybean oil's trading volume was 209,449 lots with a decrease of 155,259 lots, and open interest was 716,725 lots with an increase of 584 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume was 367,634 lots with a decrease of 95,047 lots, and open interest was 253,596 lots with a decrease of 16,032 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,900 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 US dollars/ton with a 15 - dollar increase [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 52 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 604 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 998 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 254 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared to 389 yuan/ton two trading days ago; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 652 yuan/ton, compared to - 658 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 26 yuan/ton, compared to 12 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 120 yuan/ton, compared to 130 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 21 yuan/ton, compared to 53 yuan/ton previously [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4,125 ringgit/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.61%. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.39% [2] 3.3 Brazilian Agricultural Situation - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, a 1.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. The soybean harvest in Mato Grosso is in the leading position, while the harvest in Paraná is lagging behind the historical average. The planting progress of second - crop corn has reached 1.1% of the estimated total area, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year. The harvest rate of first - crop corn is 1.6%, significantly lower than 4.1% in the same period last year [5] - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons (last year's exports were 108.2 million tons), the soybean crushing volume will be 60 million tons (higher than the previous year's estimated 58.5 million tons), the total soybean supply will reach 183.79 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean meal production in 2026 is 47.4 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous year, and the estimated soybean meal exports are 24.7 million tons [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [6]