国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 2026年02月06日 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，高位波动加剧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆继续收涨，连粕或跟随 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260206 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持弱势 | 10 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，预计节后中枢继续下移 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，高位波动加剧 豆油：区间震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,042 | 涨跌幅 -1.05% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,074 | 涨跌幅 0.35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | 2 | | 豆粕：或跟随美豆震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强20260126 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节前旺季现货偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：腊八需求预期落地，关注供应矛盾 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,910 | 涨跌幅 -0.38% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,012 | 涨跌幅 1.14% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

2025年12月18日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：抛储影响，偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251218 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：冬至需求高峰将至 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 2 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,342 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,398 | 涨跌幅 0.67% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient drive from US soybeans, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate strongly [2]. - Soybean: It will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. - Sugar: It will fluctuate within a range [2]. - Cotton: It will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [2]. - Eggs: It will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Live pigs: The price increase due to cooling is less than expected, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,656 yuan/ton with a 1.33% increase, and (night session) was 8,546 yuan/ton with a -1.27% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,268 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and (night session) was 8,000 yuan/ton with a -3.24% decrease [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From December 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.24% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month, and the production increased by 6.87% month - on - month. Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3.0% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, and exports are expected to increase by 2.0% month - on - month [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2,750 yuan/ton, and (night session) was 2,770 yuan/ton with a +0.58% increase; DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4,173 yuan/ton, and (night session) was 4,148 yuan/ton with a -0.46% decrease [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 11, CBOT soybeans rose due to sales to China and active technical buying. As of November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 695,598 tons [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1; soybean trend intensity is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2601's closing price (day session) was 2,243 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and (night session) was 2,239 yuan/ton with a -0.18% decrease; C2603's closing price (day session) was 2,236 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase, and (night session) was 2,229 yuan/ton with a -0.31% decrease [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and container price increased slightly [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.91 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,245 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 49.8% year - on - year, and in Brazil in the second half of November, it increased by 9% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's closing price (day session) was 13,860 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and (night session) was 13,825 yuan/ton with a -0.25% decrease; CY2603's closing price (day session) was 20,005 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, and (night session) was 19,985 yuan/ton with a -0.10% decrease [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading slightly recovered, cotton yarn prices were stable, and downstream orders were mainly short and small. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate at a low level [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2601's closing price was 3,144 yuan/500 kg with a -0.03% decrease, and Egg 2602's closing price was 2,968 yuan/500 kg with a -0.44% decrease [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,430 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,210 yuan/ton. The futures prices of live pigs 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 11,440 yuan/ton, 11,220 yuan/ton, and 11,820 yuan/ton respectively [30]. - **Market Information**: Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, Dekang, and Yangxiang registered warehouse receipts from December 4 - 11 [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is -1 [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,082 yuan/ton with a -0.17% decrease, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,050 yuan/ton with a -0.45% decrease [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang and Kaifeng's peanut prices were stable with low supply and demand. In Jilin and Liaoning, 308 peanut prices were stable with low supply. In Shandong, prices were stable with quality - based transactions [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].

2025年12月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：缺乏新销售、美豆续跌，连粕调整 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：印度产量大幅增加 | 7 | | 棉花：供需双强 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，整体情绪偏强 | 11 | | 生猪：增量将至，产业逻辑回归 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 3 日 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,720 | 涨跌幅 0.79% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,710 | 涨跌幅 -0.11% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

2025年12月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 1 日 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 豆油：美豆驱动不足，区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆小涨，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：关注现货基差变化和仓单增速 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，情绪偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：产业逻辑将回归 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 1.15% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.23% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,626 ...

2025年11月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆休市，缺乏指引 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：关注现货基差走势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：限仓驱动近端期现背离 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 11 月 28 日 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 豆油：区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,528 | 1.04% | 8,598 | 0.82% | | | ...

2025年11月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期利空暂充分，关注产地去库进程 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆企稳，豆油偏强震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉上市压力仍压制期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：近弱远强，反套格局 | 10 | | 生猪：降温涨价预期落空，压力逐步释放 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,708 | 涨跌幅 0.32% | 收盘价（夜盘） 8,846 | 涨跌幅 1.58% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 0.62% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,320 | 0.46% | 8,366 | 0.55% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,874 | -0.06% | 9,935 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Temporarily stabilized in the short term, with limited rebound height [2] - Soybean oil: U.S. soybeans stabilized, continue to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2] - Soybean meal: Range-bound [2] - Soybean No.1: Range-bound [2] - Corn: Moving in a range [2] - Sugar: Consolidating within a range [2] - Cotton: Lacking upward drivers, futures prices oscillating within a range [2] - Eggs: Maintaining a range-bound trend [2] - Live pigs: The price spread between fattening and standard pigs in the north is weakening, and the driving force is emerging [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily and night - session closing prices were 8,770 yuan/ton (up 0.92%) and 8,734 yuan/ton (down 0.41%) respectively; soybean oil's were 8,238 yuan/ton (up 0.12%) and 8,248 yuan/ton (up 0.12%). The trading volume and open interest of palm oil decreased, while those of soybean oil showed different trends. Spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: CIMB Securities expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to increase by 4.0% to 2.57 million tons in November due to a 10% month - on - month decline in exports, and production to decline by 8.0% to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October. SPPOMA reported that from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production decreased compared to the same period last month [5][6]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean No.1 2601's daily and night - session closing prices were 4,112 yuan/ton (down 0.05%) and 4,114 yuan/ton (down 0.34%); DCE soybean meal 2601's were 3,054 yuan/ton (up 0.10%) and 3,046 yuan/ton (down 0.39%). Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions were stable or slightly increased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the inventory decreased [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 11, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with a near - weak and far - strong trend. Traders were waiting for China's large - scale soybean purchases and the USDA's global supply - demand report [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of C2601 and C2603 were 2,177 yuan/ton (up 0.93%) and 2,197 yuan/ton (up 0.60%) during the day, and 2,180 yuan/ton (up 0.14%) and 2,196 yuan/ton (down 0.05%) at night. The trading volume increased, and the open interest changed differently. Spot prices in some regions increased [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in northern China and the south showed different trends. Imported sorghum and barley prices were reported [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 14.28 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,760 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,480 yuan/ton. The 15 - spread was 69 yuan/ton, and the 59 - spread was 7 yuan/ton [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - frequency information focused on China's syrup and premix import policy changes. The 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season's production, consumption, and import data were reported for different countries and regions [19][20][21]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of CF2601 and CY2601 decreased. The trading volume of CF2601 decreased, and the open interest increased. Spot prices of cotton in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot market's trading was general, and the cotton yarn market was mixed. ICE cotton futures were in a low - level oscillation [24][25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of egg 2512 and egg 2601 decreased. The price spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Spot prices in different regions varied. Futures prices of different contracts decreased. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts increased. The price spreads between different contracts changed [30]. - **Market Information**: The national feed output in September increased month - on - month and year - on - year [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Spot prices of peanuts in different regions changed. Futures prices of PK601 and PK603 increased. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts increased [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: Peanut prices in different regions were stable or slightly increased, with different degrees of supply and demand situations [35].

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：期货反弹基差偏弱 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：短期屠宰、肥标及二育情绪共振 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 23 日 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,164 | 涨跌幅 -1.40% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,080 | 涨跌幅 -0.92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...