Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost still provides support. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.34%, trading volume decreased while open interest remained stable. Currently, the industrial contradictions in the hot - rolled coil industry are accumulating due to weak supply and demand, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. But the cost side still provides support. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and the future breakthrough depends on the expansion of steel mills' production reduction efforts [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.87%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the demand for iron ore continues to decline, the negative feedback of production reduction is intensifying, and the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, inventory has increased significantly, and the ore price will still be under pressure and run weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 22.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%, and imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4%, which has increased for 5 consecutive months [7]. - The results of the new - issue Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" show that most market institutions expect that the liquidity gap in November may be around 2 trillion yuan, and the year - end funds are likely to remain stable and loose, with DR007 expected to fluctuate between 1.4% - 1.5%. Most institutions believe that the necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter has decreased [8]. - In October 2025, China exported 978.2 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 68.3 tons, a decline of 6.5%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 9773.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. In October, China imported 50.3 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5 tons, a decline of 8.2%. From January to October, the cumulative steel imports were 504.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. In October, China imported 11130.9 tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 501.7 tons, a decline of 4.3%. From January to October, the cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 102888.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160, 3,200, and 3,225 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil plates in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,190, and 3,310 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,940, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160. The coil - to - rebar price difference was 100, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,000 [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 771, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 803. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 10.21 and 23.38 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 104.81, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.70 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,034, with a daily increase of 0.20%, the highest price was 3,045, the lowest price was 3,025, the trading volume was 800,946, a decrease of 83,794, and the open interest was 1,960,886, a decrease of 59,467 [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil plate futures active contract was 3,245, with a daily decline of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,268, the lowest price was 3,233, the trading volume was 395,124, a decrease of 66,913, and the open interest was 1,365,588, an increase of 240 [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 760.5, with a daily decline of 1.87%, the highest price was 777.5, the lowest price was 757.0, the trading volume was 431,356, an increase of 171,751, and the open interest was 559,408, an increase of 21,913 [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil plate inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, etc.) [16][21][29] Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 4.05 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 17.59 tons. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and the future breakthrough depends on the expansion of steel mills' production reduction efforts [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. The terminal demand for ore continues to decline, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The ore price will still be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Rebar 2601 is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial concerns are fermenting, leading to a weak downward trend in steel prices [2]. - The black metals continued their weak downward trend in the night session last Friday, and the steel spot prices also declined over the weekend. Although the supply of rebar is stable and the pre - holiday downstream restocking has improved demand, the downstream industries are still sluggish, and the basic situation is difficult to improve continuously. The concern of production - cut negative feedback has fermented again, and steel prices are under pressure to run weakly before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the changes in open interest on the futures market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of industrial concerns and the weak downward trend of steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Industrial concerns are fermenting, leading to a weak downward trend in black metals in the night session last Friday and a decline in steel spot prices over the weekend. The supply of rebar is stable, and pre - holiday downstream restocking has improved demand, but the downstream industries are still sluggish, and the fundamentals are difficult to improve continuously. The concern of production - cut negative feedback has fermented again, and steel prices are under pressure to run weakly before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the changes in open interest on the futures market [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Report Author: Tu Weihua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price weakened and declined, with a daily decline of 1.58%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the supply - demand pattern of rebar improved before the holiday, downstream performance remained sluggish, demand concerns persisted, the fundamental improvement was questionable, and the upward driving force was weak. With the fermentation of concerns about production cut negative feedback, steel prices were under pressure again and were seeking a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in position on the futures market [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.22%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. In the current supply - demand weakness situation, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils were weak, the high - supply pressure remained, and prices were under pressure. With the fermentation of concerns about production cut negative feedback, it was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly before the holiday. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fell from a high level, with a daily decline of 1.74%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore was okay, supporting the ore price, but supply was rising, demand benefits were weakening, the supply - demand pattern was weakening, and the over - valued ore price was under pressure again. Coupled with concerns about production cut negative feedback, the ore price was expected to be under pressure again and fall from a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Trump announced that the US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [6]. - More than twenty regions have issued concentrated local subsidies for automobiles. Since entering the "Golden September", relevant local policies on a new round of automobile subsidies have been intensively issued, and the subsidy policies have significantly stimulated the automobile market. As of September 10, the number of applications for automobile trade - ins this year has reached 8.3 million [7]. - 208 steel enterprises have completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation. On September 25, Xining Special Steel Co., Ltd. announced its progress in ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and so far, 208 steel enterprises have made announcements on the CISA website [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Product | Location | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) | Shanghai | 3,230 | - 30 | | | Tianjin | 3,220 | - 10 | | | National Average | 3,292 | - 14 | | Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) | Shanghai | 3,390 | - 10 | | | Tianjin | 3,300 | - 30 | | | National Average | 3,427 | - 12 | | Tangshan billet (Q235) | - | 3,030 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) | - | 2,160 | 0 | | 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) | - | 783 | - 13 | | Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) | - | 802 | 4 | | Ocean freight (Australia) | - | 10.90 | 0.08 | | Ocean freight (Brazil) | - | 25.83 | 0.62 | | SGX swap (current month) | - | 105.60 | - 0.10 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | 106.10 | - 0.40 | | Coil - rebar price difference | - | 160 | 2 | | Rebar - scrap price difference | - | 1,070 | - 30 | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Product | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,114 | - 1.58 | 3,171 | 3,113 | 1,388,756 | 505,741 | 1,976,545 | 106,096 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,313 | - 1.22 | 3,359 | 3,312 | 612,844 | 275,416 | 1,391,208 | 21,492 | | Iron ore | - | 790.0 | - 1.74 | 806.0 | 788.0 | 326,907 | 135,724 | 508,929 | - 20,811 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [15][17]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [20][24][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts of 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, 247 steel mills' profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit - loss situation [29][31][33]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern continued to improve marginally. Rebar production increased slightly week - on - week, but due to poor profitability, the short - term production increase momentum was weak, and supply was stable at a low level. However, there was a pressure of inventory increase during the holiday, and the positive effect was limited. Demand continued to improve, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 10.41 tons week - on - week, but high - frequency trading was weak, and both supply and demand were at low levels in recent years. The improvement space in the peak season was questionable. Before the holiday, although the supply - demand pattern improved, downstream performance was sluggish, demand concerns remained, the fundamental improvement was questionable, the upward driving force was weak, and steel prices were under pressure again and seeking a bottom weakly [37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continued to be weak, and inventory continued to increase. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.30 tons week - on - week, and inventory was high, so the supply pressure was still large. Demand resilience weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 0.14 tons week - on - week, and high - frequency trading declined. Although the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products increased significantly, industrial contradictions persisted, which was likely to drag down hot - rolled coil demand. It was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly before the holiday [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern weakened, and inventory increased significantly. Steel mill production was stable, and ore terminal consumption was high. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills increased week - on - week, and demand was okay, supporting the ore price. However, the restocking was coming to an end, and steel market contradictions were accumulating, so the positive effect was expected to weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments were still at a high level, and domestic ore supply recovered. The high - valued ore price was under pressure again and was expected to fall from a high level [38].