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黑色金属日报-20250509
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 14:05
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Manganese silicon: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is pessimistic about demand expectations, with a weakening cost center and a difficult-to-change weak market [1]. - Iron ore is expected to trend weakly and fluctuate, with attention to the pressure of iron water peaking and falling [2]. - Coke prices are weak, with the second round of price increases rejected and a decline in bullish sentiment [3]. - Coking coal prices are weak, with high inventory pressure and expected weak fluctuations [4]. - Manganese silicon prices fluctuate slightly, with an increase in port inventory and a decline in spot prices [6]. - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuate narrowly, with weak fundamentals and a recommendation to short on rebounds [7]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures market declined. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has accumulated. Iron water production is high, increasing supply pressure. The manufacturing industry's prosperity has declined, and the real estate market's recovery is uneven. The market's demand expectations remain pessimistic, and the cost center continues to decline [1]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market fluctuated. Supply is normal, and port inventory has decreased. Steel mills' profitability is relatively high, but concerns about negative feedback have increased due to the decline in steel demand and the expectation of crude steel production restrictions. External trade frictions are easing, but there are still uncertainties [2]. Coke - Coke prices are weak. The second round of price increases was rejected, and bullish sentiment has declined. Daily production has increased slightly, and inventory remains high. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are weak. Supply is stable during the holiday, and the spot auction market is inactive. Terminal inventory is high, and inventory pressure remains high. The futures market is at a discount, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices fluctuate slightly. Port inventory has increased, and spot prices have declined. The gross profit margin in the first quarter was 47.83%. Iron water production has increased slightly, but overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing prices [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuate narrowly. Iron water production has increased slightly, and export demand has declined. Metal magnesium production is stable, and overall demand has declined marginally. Supply has stabilized, and inventory has increased, with weak fundamentals [7].
黑色金属日报-20250508
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 13:36
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆★ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall market is under pressure due to weak terminal demand, high supply, and negative feedback concerns [2][3][4][5] - The prices of various commodities are expected to be weak and volatile, with different influencing factors for each [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is under pressure due to weak demand, high supply, and concerns about negative feedback [2] - Terminal demand is weak, and the recovery of the real estate and manufacturing industries is uneven [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to be weak and volatile, with concerns about negative feedback and potential decline in iron production [3] - Supply is relatively stable, but demand is uncertain due to potential production cuts and weak steel demand [3] Coke - The coke market is weak, with the second price increase rejected and high inventory [4] - Carbon supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the development of steel exports [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile, with high inventory and weak demand [5] - Supply is stable, but demand is limited due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market has rebounded, but prices are still under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Manganese ore inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron market has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [7] - It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]