Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost still provides support. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.34%, trading volume decreased while open interest remained stable. Currently, the industrial contradictions in the hot - rolled coil industry are accumulating due to weak supply and demand, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. But the cost side still provides support. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and the future breakthrough depends on the expansion of steel mills' production reduction efforts [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.87%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the demand for iron ore continues to decline, the negative feedback of production reduction is intensifying, and the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, inventory has increased significantly, and the ore price will still be under pressure and run weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 22.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%, and imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4%, which has increased for 5 consecutive months [7]. - The results of the new - issue Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" show that most market institutions expect that the liquidity gap in November may be around 2 trillion yuan, and the year - end funds are likely to remain stable and loose, with DR007 expected to fluctuate between 1.4% - 1.5%. Most institutions believe that the necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter has decreased [8]. - In October 2025, China exported 978.2 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 68.3 tons, a decline of 6.5%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 9773.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. In October, China imported 50.3 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5 tons, a decline of 8.2%. From January to October, the cumulative steel imports were 504.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. In October, China imported 11130.9 tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 501.7 tons, a decline of 4.3%. From January to October, the cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 102888.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160, 3,200, and 3,225 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil plates in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,190, and 3,310 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,940, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160. The coil - to - rebar price difference was 100, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,000 [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 771, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 803. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 10.21 and 23.38 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 104.81, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.70 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,034, with a daily increase of 0.20%, the highest price was 3,045, the lowest price was 3,025, the trading volume was 800,946, a decrease of 83,794, and the open interest was 1,960,886, a decrease of 59,467 [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil plate futures active contract was 3,245, with a daily decline of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,268, the lowest price was 3,233, the trading volume was 395,124, a decrease of 66,913, and the open interest was 1,365,588, an increase of 240 [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 760.5, with a daily decline of 1.87%, the highest price was 777.5, the lowest price was 757.0, the trading volume was 431,356, an increase of 171,751, and the open interest was 559,408, an increase of 21,913 [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil plate inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, etc.) [16][21][29] Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 4.05 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 17.59 tons. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and the future breakthrough depends on the expansion of steel mills' production reduction efforts [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. The terminal demand for ore continues to decline, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The ore price will still be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Manganese silicon: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is pessimistic about demand expectations, with a weakening cost center and a difficult-to-change weak market [1]. - Iron ore is expected to trend weakly and fluctuate, with attention to the pressure of iron water peaking and falling [2]. - Coke prices are weak, with the second round of price increases rejected and a decline in bullish sentiment [3]. - Coking coal prices are weak, with high inventory pressure and expected weak fluctuations [4]. - Manganese silicon prices fluctuate slightly, with an increase in port inventory and a decline in spot prices [6]. - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuate narrowly, with weak fundamentals and a recommendation to short on rebounds [7]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures market declined. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has accumulated. Iron water production is high, increasing supply pressure. The manufacturing industry's prosperity has declined, and the real estate market's recovery is uneven. The market's demand expectations remain pessimistic, and the cost center continues to decline [1]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market fluctuated. Supply is normal, and port inventory has decreased. Steel mills' profitability is relatively high, but concerns about negative feedback have increased due to the decline in steel demand and the expectation of crude steel production restrictions. External trade frictions are easing, but there are still uncertainties [2]. Coke - Coke prices are weak. The second round of price increases was rejected, and bullish sentiment has declined. Daily production has increased slightly, and inventory remains high. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are weak. Supply is stable during the holiday, and the spot auction market is inactive. Terminal inventory is high, and inventory pressure remains high. The futures market is at a discount, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices fluctuate slightly. Port inventory has increased, and spot prices have declined. The gross profit margin in the first quarter was 47.83%. Iron water production has increased slightly, but overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing prices [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuate narrowly. Iron water production has increased slightly, and export demand has declined. Metal magnesium production is stable, and overall demand has declined marginally. Supply has stabilized, and inventory has increased, with weak fundamentals [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆★ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall market is under pressure due to weak terminal demand, high supply, and negative feedback concerns [2][3][4][5] - The prices of various commodities are expected to be weak and volatile, with different influencing factors for each [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is under pressure due to weak demand, high supply, and concerns about negative feedback [2] - Terminal demand is weak, and the recovery of the real estate and manufacturing industries is uneven [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to be weak and volatile, with concerns about negative feedback and potential decline in iron production [3] - Supply is relatively stable, but demand is uncertain due to potential production cuts and weak steel demand [3] Coke - The coke market is weak, with the second price increase rejected and high inventory [4] - Carbon supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the development of steel exports [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile, with high inventory and weak demand [5] - Supply is stable, but demand is limited due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market has rebounded, but prices are still under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Manganese ore inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron market has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [7] - It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]