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基础化工行业2025年中期投资策略:拨云见日终有时,关注细分领域结构性机会
Dongguan Securities· 2025-06-10 09:22
Group 1 - The report emphasizes the improvement in supply-demand dynamics within the basic chemical industry, highlighting structural opportunities in specific sub-sectors such as refrigerants, sweeteners, lubricating oil additives, and modified plastics [5][6][61] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in the scale of ongoing projects in the basic chemical sector, indicating a rationalization of supply as the industry moves away from "involution" competition [18][22] - The basic chemical sector's revenue for Q1 2025 was 605.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.49%, while net profit reached 36.91 billion yuan, up 5.18% year-on-year [21][29] Group 2 - In the refrigerant sector, the supply of second-generation refrigerants is being significantly reduced, while third-generation refrigerants remain under quota restrictions, leading to a favorable demand outlook driven by strong performance in air conditioning and automotive sectors [42][53] - The sweetener market is expected to benefit from the trend towards reduced sugar consumption, with potential growth in demand for products like sucralose and allulose, particularly if domestic approval for allulose is granted [4][6][4] - The lubricating oil additive market is poised for growth due to the increasing emphasis on domestic substitution, as the industry currently relies on significant imports, with 200,000 to 300,000 tons needed annually [6][5][6] Group 3 - The modified plastics sector is projected to grow as the government implements policies to encourage the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in the automotive and home appliance markets [6][6][6] - The report indicates that the average price of refrigerants such as R134a and R32 has seen significant year-on-year increases, reflecting a high demand environment [59][63] - The overall market sentiment in the basic chemical industry is positive, with expectations of continued demand growth supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting consumption [38][39][41]
研判2025!中国阿洛酮糖行业产业链、市场规模、竞争格局及发展趋势分析:产业利好政策持续落地,国内阿洛酮糖市场大门即将开启[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-05-01 02:09
Industry Overview - Allulose, or D-Psicose, is a rare sugar found in small amounts in natural foods like raisins and figs, characterized by its white powder form and low caloric content [1][2] - The global allulose market is projected to reach $14.7 million by 2024 and is expected to grow to $43.6 million by 2032, driven by favorable policies and a global trend towards reduced sugar consumption [1][11] Market Dynamics - The allulose market is expanding rapidly in beverage and baking sectors, with China being the largest consumer market, holding approximately 80.45% of the market share, followed by Japan and South Korea [11][14] - The approval of allulose for use in various food products in multiple countries, including the U.S. and Australia, is facilitating its market entry, while the EU is expected to approve it within 2-3 years [11][13] Production and Technology - The primary production method for allulose is biological conversion, utilizing D-Psicose 3-epimerase to convert fructose into allulose, with key players including Jinhe Industrial, Baolingbao, and Sanyuan Bio [9][16] - Recent advancements in enzyme engineering have improved the yield of allulose production to 88.8%, significantly reducing raw material costs [26] Competitive Landscape - Major global players in the allulose market include CJ CheilJedang, Samyang, Tate & Lyle, and Matsutake, which have established production capabilities and technological advantages [18][29] - Domestic companies in China, such as Jinhe Industrial and Baolingbao, are in the process of expanding their production capacities, with potential domestic capacity exceeding 286,100 tons [20][26] Future Trends - The market is expected to experience a surge in industrial applications due to policy support, with the potential for allulose to be widely used in sugar-free beverages and baked goods by 2025 [25] - Health-conscious consumer trends are driving demand for low-calorie sweeteners like allulose, which is anticipated to see significant growth in the functional food sector [28][29]
雀巢全吞徐福记
36氪· 2025-03-05 23:59
Core Viewpoint - Nestlé has acquired Xu Fu Ji, marking another domestic brand moving into foreign ownership, which reflects ongoing trends in the Chinese candy market [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The control of Xu Fu Ji was relinquished by the Xu family 14 years ago, with Nestlé acquiring 60% of the company for $1.7 billion, positioning itself in the largest candy enterprise in China [4]. - The Xu family, originally from Taiwan, established Xu Fu Ji and expanded into mainland China in the 1990s, successfully capturing the high-end candy market with their New Year candy products [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese candy market, despite a shrinking trend, remains significant, valued at nearly 100 billion yuan, attracting interest from major players like Mars and PepsiCo [4]. - The market has seen a decline in festive candy consumption, dropping from 50% to 30% over the past decade, with the overall candy market size decreasing from 90 billion yuan in 2017 to 85 billion yuan in 2023 [9][10]. Group 3: Company Evolution - Xu Fu Ji has transitioned from a traditional candy company to a broader snack enterprise, introducing products like sugar-free chocolate and aiming for over 10 billion yuan in sales by 2027 [10]. - The company has been recognized for its growth potential within Nestlé's portfolio, contributing 16.1% to Nestlé's sales in the Greater China region [7][13]. Group 4: Leadership Changes - Following Nestlé's initial investment, the Xu family gradually stepped back from management, with professional managers taking over leadership roles to adapt to market changes [12][13]. - The recent acquisition of the remaining 40% stake by Nestlé signifies the complete transition of Xu Fu Ji into the Nestlé ecosystem, with the Xu family's influence now fully removed [11][13].