中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PX/PTA ★ 回调买入 PTA 加工费整体偏低，装置检修力度较大（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停车 检修 5 周、逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中，英力士、四川能投、独山能 源 1#检修中），供应端压力有所缓解；下游需求相对较好但预期走弱（织 造订单持续下行）。成本端支撑弱化。短期来看，基本面有所改善，供需 偏紧，但 12 月存累库预期。策略：估值及加工费均不高，关注 05 逢低布 局多单机会，或 1-5 反套。 乙二醇 ★ 底部震荡 国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷下降（茂名石化月初停车 2 月，中海壳牌 2 期本周停车检修 10 天，中化泉州停车 2 月，富德能源本周停车检修，盛 虹炼化 100 万吨装置停车至明年 5 月。煤化工前期检修装置复产，整体有 所提负），海外装置整体也略有降负（台湾中纤、东联停车，伊朗 Morvarid12 月上停车检修 3 周、Farsa 计划 12 月底停车检修 2-3 周；美国南亚装置停 车中、GCGV 降负运行）；下游需求相对较好但预期走弱。12 月存累库预 期。乙二醇估值偏低，但缺乏向上驱动。短期跟随成本波动，原油短期反 弹但 ...

Core Viewpoint - Urea futures have shown a slight upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 1663.00 yuan and closing at 1660.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.65% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, the urea market is expected to continue a low-level wide fluctuation trend due to high supply levels and weak demand, with daily production at 201,100 tons, a slight decrease from the previous day [2] - Zhonghui Futures indicates that the supply side pressure remains, with daily production reaching 202,500 tons, and anticipates that production will remain high before the upcoming maintenance of gas-based enterprises [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that while there has been a slight decrease in prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, predicting a return to a stagnant fluctuation after price corrections [4] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side is characterized by mixed signals, with limited agricultural demand ahead of the new year, while exports of urea and other fertilizers have been relatively strong [3] - The market shows a divergence in performance across regions, with some areas experiencing higher sales rates, while overall inventory levels remain high compared to previous years [2] - The ongoing "export quota system" and "price stabilization measures" are influencing the market dynamics, leading to a situation where urea prices have both upper and lower limits [3]