机构建议重点关注：1、传统化工龙头：供需改善+价格弹性品种，如PX/PTA、钾肥、TDI/MDI、 LiPF6；2、新材料成长赛道：如半导体电子化学品、数据中心冷却剂、商业航天材料（碳纤维、陶瓷封 装）等，受益于AI、新能源、商业航天等新兴产业需求爆发。 截至2026年2月5日 13:06，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)成分股方面涨跌互现，三棵树领涨 1.05%，广东宏大上涨0.84%，恒逸石化上涨0.42%；联泓新科领跌。化工ETF(159870)最新报价0.87元。 近期化工板块持续受到资金关注，化工ETF(159870)盘中净申购超4亿份，机构指出，主要因行业迎来多 重积极共振：价格指数自2025年12月触底回升，资本开支收缩，政策端"反内卷"加速落后产能出清，同 时海外高成本产能退出优化全球供给格局。 机构认为，此轮周期上涨支撑因素清晰： 盈利触底：行业经历4年调整，利润率已至历史低位，进一步下行空间有限； 政策驱动：国内"反内卷"与"双碳"政策严格控新增、清落后，部分子行业通过自律减产推动价格回升； 全球供给重塑：欧洲及日韩等高成本产能加速关停，2026-2027年全球乙烯、丙烯等核心产品 ...

锂矿、有色之后，涨价线的下一个板块会不会是化工？在瑞银看来，大概率是的。 01 瑞银最新发布的一份研究报告，聚焦中国化工行业。瑞银认为，在多重积极因素共振下，中国化工行业将在2026-2028年开启新一轮上行周期，行业盈利 修复与估值重估可期。 上行周期四大核心驱动因素 1、盈利筑底，下行空间受限 历经四年调整，化工行业已逼近历史底部，产能扩张压力缓解与需求边际改善形成支撑，进一步下行空间极为有限。 2025年行业资本开支同比下降8%，企业资金压力与项目盈利预期低迷倒逼行业自律性提升，标志着产能无序扩张时代落幕。 2. 反内卷政策深化，行业生态重塑 中国"反内卷"与"双碳"政策持续加码，成为行业转型的关键推手。政策方向明确：收紧新项目审批、优化落后产能淘汰标准、强化行业自律、将化工产品 纳入碳交易市场。 地方层面，陕西推行差异化电价加速高耗能产能出清；国家层面，财政部调整硅酮、LiPF6等产品出口退税政策，直指行业恶性竞争。同时，PTA、有机 硅等细分领域企业自发组织减产稳价，已推动产品价格触底回升，行业从过剩向供需均衡转变。 3. 海外产能加速退出，全球供给格局优化 全球化工行业盈利低迷背景下，海外高成本产 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PX/PTA ★ 谨慎追空 PTA 加工费整体偏低，装置检修力度较大（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停车 检修 5 周、逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中，英力士、四川能投、独山能 源 1#检修中），供应端压力有所缓解；下游需求相对较好但预期走弱（织 造订单持续下行）。成本端支撑弱化。短期来看，供需偏紧，但 12 月存 累库预期。 乙二醇 ★ 偏空 国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷下降（茂名石化月初停车 2 月，中海壳牌 2 期本周停车检修 10 天，中化泉州停车 2 月，富德能源本周停车检修，盛 虹炼化 100 万吨装置停车至明年 5 月。值得注意的是，煤化工前期检修装 置复产，整体有所提负），海外装置整体也略有降负（台湾中纤、东联停 车，伊朗 Morvarid12 月上停车检修 3 周、Farsa 计划 12 月底停车检修 2-3 周；美国南亚装置停车中、GCGV 降负运行）；下游需求相对较好但预期 走弱。12 月存累库预期。乙二醇估值偏低，但缺乏向上驱动。短期跟随成 本波动，原油短期反弹但不改承压态势。 甲醇 ★ 偏空 太仓现货止跌，港口库存环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish with potential rebounds [2] - L: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PP: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PX/PTA: Buy on dips [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Bottom - side oscillation, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4] - Methanol: Add long positions on dips [4] - Urea: Buy on dips [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish trend continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continuation in the second phase [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market for most energy and chemical products is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical situations, and cost support. Some products face supply - side pressures, while others are influenced by seasonal demand changes and cost fluctuations. For example, crude oil is pressured by oversupply in the off - season, while natural gas is boosted by increased demand in the winter [2][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.69%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC up 0.47% [8] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term support comes from the Ukraine's attack on the CPC pipeline and South American uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, with OPEC+ maintaining its production policy and global and US inventories rising [9] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 5, the US oil rig count increased by 6 to 413. Russia's Tuapse port's oil product exports in December are expected to increase by 21.4%. Market expects India's imports from Russia to reduce by nearly one - third. As of November 28, US crude and product inventories increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [445 - 455] for SC [11] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the PG main contract closed at 4294 yuan/ton, down 0.16% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4510 (+10), 4411 (+0), and 4470 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [15] - **Basic Logic**: It is closely related to the cost of crude oil. Although it rebounds with short - term oil price increases, the long - term oil price trend is downward. There is some support from downstream chemical demand, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Supply has increased, while inventory has decreased [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [17] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton (-8). The basis was +31 yuan/ton (-22) [20] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthened, leading to a short - term oversold rebound, but spot prices did not follow suit. The supply remains sufficient due to seasonal increases in domestic production. The peak season for shed films is ending, and oil prices may decline in the medium - term [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Exit short positions. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [6750 - 6900] [21] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The basis was +89 yuan/ton (+28) [24] - **Basic Logic**: The increase in the parking ratio has alleviated supply pressure, but demand remains weak, and there is a high inventory - reduction pressure. OPEC+ is still in the production - increase cycle, and oil prices may continue to decline. The production of propylene warehouse receipts may lead to a weak market [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It may be strong in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Consider going long on PP processing fees. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP and [5850 - 6000] for propylene [25] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5). The basis was - 76 yuan/ton (-5) [27] - **Basic Logic**: High - level production has continued, and the main contract hit a record low at night. During the macro - policy window period, trading has returned to the weak fundamentals. High social inventory limits upward movement, but low valuation provides some support. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position - shifting [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [4350 - 4500] [28] PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton (+66) [29] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is generally low, and many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. PX is oscillating weakly. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or conducting a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of [4635 - 4700] [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas production loads have decreased, but the arrival volume has increased. Downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. It has a low valuation but lacks upward momentum [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3680 - 3770] [34] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Taicang spot prices have continued to weaken [37] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory restricts spot price rebounds. Domestic production loads have increased, while overseas production loads have decreased. Port inventory is decreasing, but the speed has slowed down. The arrival volume in December is expected to be about 1.3 billion tons. Demand has changed little, and cost support has weakened [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound height of the main contract may be limited. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of [2040 - 2080] for MA01 [39] Urea - **Market Performance**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened, with a basis of 47 (+25) yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: The daily output is currently high but is expected to decrease as some gas - based enterprises shut down for maintenance in mid - December. Demand is currently good but lacks sustainability. Social inventory has decreased slightly but is still at a high level. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the range of [1665 - 1695] [43] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the NG main contract closed at 5.063 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.36% month - on - month [45] - **Basic Logic**: Entering the consumption peak season, the extremely cold weather in the US has boosted heating demand. The number of US natural gas drilling platforms has decreased, and EU import bans on Russian gas will be gradually implemented. US natural gas inventory has decreased [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to increased winter demand. Pay attention to the range of [4.980 - 5.185] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the BU main contract closed at 2948 yuan/ton. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2930 (-10), 3180 (+0), and 3000 (-50) yuan/ton respectively [50] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. Oil prices have fallen due to geopolitical easing. The comprehensive profit of asphalt has decreased. Supply is expected to decrease in December, while demand has increased slightly. Inventory has decreased [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [2900 - 3000] [52] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16). The basis was 77 yuan/ton (+16) [55] - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has decreased, and multiple production lines are planned for cold repair in December. The real - estate market is weak, and demand remains low [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [1020 - 1070] [56] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton (+25). The basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+5) [59] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts have continued to increase, putting pressure on the market through industrial hedging. Supply and demand have both decreased, and long - term supply is expected to be abundant [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [60]