Core Insights - Didi Chuxing forecasts a significant increase in ride-hailing demand starting September 26, peaking on September 30, with evening peak hours anticipated to begin at 15:30, and booking demand expected to double compared to regular days [1] Demand Forecast - The report indicates a 51% month-on-month increase in intercity ride-hailing demand, with cities like Chongqing, Guiyang, Xi'an, Xiamen, and Nanjing identified as popular travel destinations [1] - The Mid-Autumn Festival (October 6) is expected to trigger a second wave of travel peaks, with demand for premium and luxury vehicles projected to rise by 83% and 47%, respectively [1] Rental Car Trends - Didi's car rental bookings have surged by 148% year-on-year, with 70% of these being intercity rental orders, indicating a shift towards a "big transportation + local rental" model [1] Cross-Border Travel - In terms of cross-border travel, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing are the top three cities favored by inbound users, while international cities like Singapore, Seoul, and Bangkok are expected to see a surge in Chinese tourists utilizing ride-hailing services [1] Operational Measures - To manage the anticipated travel peak, Didi has deployed ride-hailing guides at over 100 airports and train stations nationwide and has invested over 400 million yuan in driver subsidies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported disappointing Q2 2025 results, with net sales of $865 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.8% at constant exchange rates, and adjusted EBITDA of $141 million, reflecting a decrease in EBITDA margin from 19.0% to 16.3% [1] Performance Summary - Q2 2025 net sales were $865 million, down 5.8% year-on-year at constant exchange rates; adjusted EBITDA was $141 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3% compared to 19.0% in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $71.4 million, down from $86.9 million in the previous year [1] - The company's performance was below expectations, primarily due to weaker results in Asia and North America [1] Development Trends - Management indicated that from 2021 to 2023, the company experienced significant sales growth with a compound annual growth rate of 37%, outperforming the industry average growth rate of 4.5% [1] - Sales performance is expected to normalize in 2024 and 2025, with long-term global passenger travel growth projected at approximately 4% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - For Q3 2025, sales performance is anticipated to be similar to Q2 2025, with a low single-digit decline expected [2] Sales Outlook - Management expects slight improvement in sales for the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven by base effect, improved consumer sentiment, and clearer U.S. tariff outlook [2] - Non-travel product penetration increased, with sales accounting for 36.2% of total sales, up from 34.4% in the same period last year [2] - The lifestyle and outdoor brand Gregory, which has a sales contribution of less than 3%, saw a 14.7% year-on-year sales increase in the first half of the year at constant exchange rates [2] Profit Margin Outlook - The company anticipates a gross margin between 59% and 59.5% for 2025, impacted by U.S. tariffs on imports from major production countries [2] - To mitigate margin pressure, the company plans to utilize inventory purchased in the first half of 2025 and implement price increases in the second half of 2025 [2] - The decline in high-margin sales from Asia has further pressured gross margins, although this was partially offset by an increase in direct sales proportion from 38% to 40% year-on-year [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weaker sales momentum and unfavorable operating leverage, the company has lowered its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to $3.42 billion and $3.65 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 17% and 9% to $271 million and $316 million, respectively [2] - Despite the adjustments, the company maintains a strong market leadership position, with a target price of HKD 20, reflecting a 21% upside potential from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the revenue forecasts for Samsonite (01910) for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to $3.42 billion and $3.65 billion respectively, due to weaker sales momentum and unfavorable operating leverage [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Samsonite reported 2Q25 net sales of $865 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.8% at constant exchange rates [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q25 was $141 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, down from 19.0% in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2Q25 was $71.4 million, compared to $86.9 million in the previous year [1] Group 2: Sales Outlook - The company expects sales performance in 3Q25 to be similar to 2Q25, with a low single-digit decline in sales [2] - Management anticipates a slight improvement in sales for the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven by base effects, improved consumer sentiment, and clearer U.S. tariff outlook [2] - The penetration rate of non-travel categories has increased, with sales accounting for 36.2%, up from 34.4% in the same period last year [2] Group 3: Profit Margin Outlook - CICC forecasts the company's gross margin for 2025 to be between 59% and 59.5%, impacted by U.S. tariffs [2] - The company is taking measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including utilizing inventory purchased in 1H25 and implementing price increases in 2H25 [2] - The decline in high-margin sales from Asia has further pressured gross margins, although this was partially offset by an increase in direct sales ratio from 38% to 40% year-on-year [2]