美国联邦公开市场委员会成员、克利夫兰联储银行行长贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）10日在公开致辞 中预计，美联储可能会在相当一段时间内维持利率不变，利率现在处于中性区间。 新华财经纽约2月10日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国1月零售数据弱于预期和美联储官员表态偏向"鹰派"， 纽约股市三大股指10日高开，早盘整体窄幅震荡，午后走弱，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨52.27点，收于50188.14点，涨幅为0.10%；标准 普尔500种股票指数下跌23.01点，收于6941.81点，跌幅为0.33%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌136.196点，收 于23102.474点，跌幅为0.59%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块六跌五涨。通信服务板块和金融板块分别以0.84%和0.75%跌幅领 跌，公用事业板块和房地产板块分别以1.59%和1.39%涨幅领涨。 美国商务部10日上午发布的初步数据显示，美国2025年12月份零售和食品服务业销售金额为7350亿美 元，环比零增长，显著低于市场共识预期的0.4%和前月的0.6%。 亚特兰大联储银行GDPNow模型10日更新的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut has led to a reassessment of the interest rate path, with a focus on upcoming macroeconomic data, while the market shows little pricing for further rate hikes but has mixed expectations for additional easing [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell emphasized that the policy rate is now in a neutral range, and future adjustments will depend on data [1][4]. - There is a notable division within the FOMC, with one-quarter of voting members dissenting against the rate cut, highlighting a rare tension between inflation concerns and signs of a cooling labor market [1][4]. - The committee's predictions range from maintaining rates to varying degrees of further cuts, with no consensus on rate hikes as a baseline scenario [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The SEP forecasts for growth in 2026 are higher than those for 2025, attributed to fiscal impacts, ongoing AI investment, and sustained consumer momentum [1][4]. - Powell noted that the labor market has shown signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.3 percentage points since summer, and inflation has slightly eased, particularly in services [2][5]. - Structural issues in the housing market, such as long-term supply shortages and high relocation costs due to low mortgage rates locked in during the pandemic, will not be significantly improved by the recent rate cut [2][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged during the press conference, rising above $4,238 per ounce, reflecting market sensitivity to the prospect of looser monetary policy and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3][6]. - The meeting underscored the Fed's challenges in balancing growth, inflation, and employment, with future market movements likely to depend heavily on data and subtle policy signals [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is approaching a pivotal moment in its monetary policy, potentially pausing interest rate cuts by July 2025 and possibly ending the easing cycle altogether after September, which will significantly impact the Eurozone economy and global financial dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - Since June 2024, the ECB has cut key interest rates eight times, with the last five cuts indicating a strong desire to stimulate economic growth and inflation recovery [3]. - Market expectations have cooled, with only a 5% probability of further rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, suggesting a shift towards maintaining the deposit rate at 1.75% [3]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end, with June inflation in the Eurozone aligning with the target at 2%, supporting the case for tightening [3][4]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Recent ECB meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions, with most members supporting a 25 basis point cut, but some advocating for maintaining current rates due to concerns about over-stimulation [4]. - The concept of a "neutral rate" has resurfaced, with debates on whether rates have reached a neutral level or remain too accommodative [4]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - The Euro has appreciated by 14% against the dollar this year, complicating the Eurozone's export competitiveness and increasing pressure on manufacturing and export-oriented businesses [6]. - Despite a decrease in inflation, the Eurozone's economic growth remains weak, with consumer demand and business investment not fully recovering to pre-pandemic levels [6]. - Structural issues in the Eurozone economy, such as labor market challenges and supply chain bottlenecks, continue to hinder economic potential [6]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - The timing of the ECB's policy adjustments is closely linked to the global macroeconomic environment, with the need to assess the spillover effects of monetary policy amid tightening global liquidity [7]. - The effectiveness of the ECB's monetary policy will also depend on the internal political situation and the degree of fiscal policy coordination within the Eurozone [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The nearing end of the ECB's easing cycle reflects both improvements in economic fundamentals and a warning of narrowing policy space [9]. - Ongoing debates within the ECB will influence the direction of monetary policy, with the Eurozone's ability to sustain recovery post-rate stabilization reliant on external stability and internal structural reforms [9]. - The transition from quantitative easing to qualitative changes in policy will be crucial for global investors and policymakers to monitor, as the ECB's balance of rates, inflation, and growth will determine the Eurozone's economic fate [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Silk, stated that interest rates are currently within a neutral range of 2.5% to 3.5% [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is assessing the current interest rate levels to determine their impact on the economy [1] - The neutral interest rate range indicates a balance between stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation [1] - This statement may influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicates that interest rates are currently within a neutral range [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank's assessment suggests a balanced approach to monetary policy, indicating no immediate need for rate adjustments [1] - The neutral interest rate range is seen as conducive to economic stability, allowing for sustainable growth [1] - The central bank's stance reflects ongoing economic conditions and inflation targets [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Simkus stated that interest rates are currently in the upper half of the neutral range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Kazimir stated that interest rates are currently in a neutral range and inflation is expected to reach 2% in the coming months [1] Group 1 - Interest rates are positioned within a neutral range, indicating a balanced monetary policy stance [1] - Inflation is projected to hit 2% in the near future, suggesting potential economic stability [1]