Group 1 - The U.S. Commerce Department will release the August core PCE price index year-on-year data, with the previous value at 2.9% and the expected value remaining unchanged [2] - The core PCE data is a key basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and stable data performance is beneficial for maintaining the current interest rate cut trend [2] - The labor market in the U.S. has shown weakness since May, leading the Federal Reserve to shift focus from PCE data to non-farm payroll reports [2] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain a zero interest rate in its September rate decision, as inflation remains low at 0.7% in August, below the previous value of 0.8% [4] - The Swiss economy is experiencing weak inflation, which corresponds to a loose monetary policy, and the Swiss franc may face significant pressure due to the zero interest rate environment [4] - Despite the zero interest rate, the Swiss franc retains its safe-haven status, which may lead to appreciation against the U.S. dollar and euro amid global economic uncertainty [4] Group 3 - Major developed countries will release manufacturing PMI data, with expectations for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK showing mixed results, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly [5] - The manufacturing outlook in Europe appears positive, with expected values above the 50 mark, except for the UK, indicating growth [5] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI is still above the 50 mark, suggesting limited impact on the U.S. dollar index despite a slight expected decline [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates an expected increase of 225 yuan/ton, with a slight reduction of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's forecast, translating to an increase of 0.17-0.20 yuan per liter, which exceeds the upper limit for price hikes [1] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have recently experienced fluctuations, with U.S. crude oil dropping below $70 per barrel, closing at $69.36 per barrel after a decline of 1.34% [4] - Brent crude oil also fell by 1.36%, closing at $71.74 per barrel, with current prices at $69.27 per barrel, reflecting a further decrease of 0.13% [4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a surprising rise in core PCE inflation to 2.8%, has impacted market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced oil demand [4] Regional Fuel Prices - The following are the expected fuel prices in various regions: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 7.26 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.73 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.23 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 7.22 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.68 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.48 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 7.28 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.89 yuan, and diesel at 6.91 yuan [5] - Hainan: 92 gasoline at 8.37 yuan, 95 gasoline at 8.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 10.06 yuan, and diesel at 6.99 yuan [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 制造业 PMI 数据边际向好 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。最新的制造业 PMI 数据边际向好，加上央行二季度例会对降 息降准的表述有所弱化，国债的风险偏好有所下降。不过目前内需仍存在结构性问题 ...