Group 1 - The Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) has seen a strong increase of 3.31%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Xinda Securities (601059) up 5.87%, Dongfang Caifu (300059) up 5.27%, and Guotai Haitong (601211) up 4.84% [1] - The Securities ETF Leader (159993) rose by 3.16%, with the latest price at 1.21 yuan, marking a weekly increase of nearly 7% [1] - In terms of capital inflow, there has been a net inflow of 177 million yuan over the past five trading days, with an average daily net inflow of 35.3 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of leading brokers with strong balance sheet capabilities, as the securities industry is in a strategic opportunity period for balance sheet expansion [2] - Key focus areas for brokers include large asset allocation, international collaboration, mergers and acquisitions, and optimizing liabilities [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index account for 80.15% of the index, with major players including Dongfang Caifu (300059) and CITIC Securities (600030) [3]

券商估值的想象空间打开！ 今天早上，一则重磅消息传来： 6月24日，国泰海通集团下属公司国泰君安国际控股有限公司正式获香港证监 会批准，将现有证券交易牌照升级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务，以及在提供虚拟资产交易服务的基础上提供意 见。此次牌照升级后，客户将可在国泰君安国际平台直接交易加密货币（如比特币、以太币等）、稳定币（如 泰达币等）等虚拟资产。 受此影响，港股全线高开，恒生指数开盘涨0.62%，恒生科技指数涨0.9%。其中，国泰君安国际开盘大涨超 14%，盘中一度暴涨超100%，随后涨幅有所收窄，但涨幅仍超60%。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/25，不作投资推荐） 此前，光大控股因为参股Circle的传闻暴涨，并带动光大证券一度涨停。可以说，由于稳定币空间巨大，是提 升估值的一个重磅驱动。 有分析认为，稳定币有望推动券商角色根本性转变，即从交易通道商转向资产证券化引擎和跨境清算枢纽，这 对于券商的估值提升，可以说是重要加分项。 重磅来了 6月24日，国泰海通集团下属公司国泰君安国际控股有限公司正式获香港证监会批准，将现有证券交易牌照升 级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务，以及在提供虚拟资产交易服 ...

证券研究报告 证券 券商扩表的实质与方式选择 证券公司资产负债表扩张，一是作为资本市场中介反映权益、固收、衍生品 等市场扩容；二是在机构化浪潮下反映服务客需能力提升。路径上有三重选 择：1）通过并购重组补齐业务短板、实现地域扩张，如中信收购广州证券 成为首个资产破万亿的券商；2）在监管与市场环境均有利时，通过业务发 展扩张，如 2015 年两融推动行业总资产规模达 6.4 万亿，较 2014 年初提 升 2 倍多；2019 年后机构化浪潮，衍生品业务推动行业总资产在 2023 年 末达 11.8 万亿元，过去 3 年 CAGR 为 13%；3）探索国际扩张、善用境外 杠杆，如境外融资、国际子公司增资后的规模提振。 当下的扩表周期由固收投资驱动、子公司贡献提升 过去 10 年行业总资产 CAGR 12%，当前从周期性扩表迈向韧性扩张，市场 波动不改扩表定力，且以大券商为扩表主力。关注三大特征：1）金融投资 驱动：过去三轮扩表周期中，分别为 06-07 年客户资金、14-15 年两融及股 票质押、19-21 年机构客需驱动，23 年以来在轻资本业务承压+债牛行情下， 主动扩大固收投资规模提振业绩，或带来更强的持续 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A and H shares, with target prices set at RMB 33.31 and HKD 26.91 respectively [8]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 17.761 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.13% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.64%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.545 billion, up 32.00% year-over-year and 33.44% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with performance forecasts [1][2]. - The company's total assets continued to expand, reaching RMB 17.9 trillion by the end of Q1 2025, a 4.59% increase from the beginning of the year. Financial investments grew by 7.08% to RMB 922.8 billion [2]. - Investment income for Q1 2025 was RMB 8.862 billion, accounting for 50% of total revenue, with a significant year-over-year increase of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 89% [2]. - The brokerage and asset management businesses also showed growth, with brokerage net income at RMB 3.325 billion (up 36.18% year-over-year) and asset management net income at RMB 2.563 billion (up 8.69% year-over-year) [3]. - The investment banking segment reported net income of RMB 976 million, a 12.24% increase year-over-year, with equity underwriting volume reaching RMB 34.5 billion (up 91% year-over-year) and a market share of 22.27% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue: RMB 17.761 billion (yoy +29.13%, qoq +0.64%) [1] - Q1 2025 net profit: RMB 6.545 billion (yoy +32.00%, qoq +33.44%) [1] - Total assets: RMB 17.9 trillion (4.59% growth from the start of the year) [2] - Investment income: RMB 8.862 billion (50% of total revenue, yoy +62%, qoq +89%) [2] Business Segments - Brokerage net income: RMB 3.325 billion (yoy +36.18%) [3] - Asset management net income: RMB 2.563 billion (yoy +8.69%) [3] - Investment banking net income: RMB 976 million (yoy +12.24%) [4] - Equity underwriting volume: RMB 34.5 billion (yoy +91%) [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected net profit for 2025-2027: RMB 24.4 billion, RMB 26.3 billion, RMB 28.1 billion [5] - Projected EPS for 2025-2027: RMB 1.65, RMB 1.77, RMB 1.90 [5] - Target price based on PB multiples: RMB 33.31 for A shares and HKD 26.91 for H shares [5].