Core Insights - The phenomenon of "labor hoarding" among U.S. employers appears to be coming to an end, as major companies like Starbucks and Amazon announce layoffs, signaling a potential shift in the job market [1][2] - The total number of layoffs announced in the U.S. has reached nearly 950,000 as of September this year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2020 [3] Group 1: Layoff Trends - The layoffs are widespread across various sectors, with government jobs being particularly affected, accounting for nearly 300,000 job cuts this year [3] - The technology and retail sectors have also seen significant layoffs, with Southwest Airlines conducting large-scale layoffs for the first time in its history [3] - The data from private firms like Challenger, Gray & Christmas is becoming increasingly important due to the lack of timely information from official sources [3] Group 2: Shift in Employment Strategy - The recent wave of layoffs indicates a major shift in corporate hiring strategies, moving away from the previously stable "low hiring, low firing" model [6] - Companies are now more willing to cut labor costs to protect profits, influenced by advancements in artificial intelligence and automation [6] - Over 60% of executives believe that AI will eventually replace some entry-level jobs, contributing to the decision to reduce workforce [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Market Sentiment - Economists have differing views on the future of the job market, with some, like Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, remaining optimistic about a gradual cooling rather than a severe downturn [7] - Concerns are rising among market observers regarding layoffs in non-tech sectors, particularly in transportation and retail, which could signal deeper issues [7] - There is an increasing demand for temporary workers as companies remain cautious about long-term hiring, reflecting uncertainty about the economic outlook [7]

对美联储而言，劳动力市场已成为核心关注焦点，其脆弱性及对经济的潜在风险愈发凸显。 "若这些风险成为现实，可能会以裁员骤增、失业率攀升的形式快速显现，"鲍威尔说。 可以肯定的是，招聘节奏已显著放缓。美国劳工部数据显示，6月的招聘率（新增招聘人数占美国总就 业人数的比例）仅为3.3%，低于2020年2月（新冠疫情爆发前夕）的3.9%，更远低于2021年11月就业市 场强劲复苏时的4.6%。 招聘疲软可能在一定程度上反映了特朗普关税政策带来的不确定性，部分企业因此难以制定长期计划。 正如一位企业高管在7月达拉斯联储月度制造业调查中所言："关税变动让我们不得不采取'观望态度'， 根本无法预测未来。" 但早在特朗普再次上任前，企业的招聘速度就已在放缓。美联储为给经济降温而大幅加息，或许是原因 之一；此外，在疫情后经济复苏阶段，部分雇主因急于扩充人手，可能存在"过度招聘"的情况。 至少目前来看，雇主们并未大规模裁员。6月裁员率（裁员人数占总就业人数的比例）仅为1%，接近 2021年就业市场繁荣期创下的略低于0.9%的历史低点。另一个反映裁员情况的指标——初请失业金人 数虽在过去一年略有上升，但仍处于极低水平。 经济学家将 ...

美国就业市场正陷入一种前所未有的脆弱平衡状态：雇主既不大量裁员，也不积极招聘！这种"低招 聘、低裁员"的状态虽然维持了相对稳定的失业率，但也让就业市场变得极其脆弱，成为美联储政策制 定的核心关切。 据见闻此前文章，美联储主席鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表讲话称，美联储实现就业和通 胀双重使命面临的"风险平衡似乎正在发生转变。"这一表态源于7月就业报告修正数据显示，近几个月 的就业增长远弱于此前预期。 鲍威尔将当前劳动力市场环境形容为"奇特"，称移民限制导致的劳动力供应萎缩抵消了需求减少的影 响。这种异常形势暗示就业的下行风险正在增加。如若风险显现，可能很快表现为裁员激增和失业率快 速上升。 分析人士认为，这种看似稳定的就业环境背后暗藏风险，也是鲍威尔所担忧的就业下行风险所在：由于 招聘活动如此低迷，即使是相对温和的裁员增加，也可能迅速打破这种脆弱的平衡，让美国经济陷入就 业流失的螺旋式下降。 企业不裁员，但也不招人 美国劳工统计局数据显示，6月份招聘率（招聘人数占美国总就业人数的比例）仅为3.3%。这一数字不 仅低于2020年2月新冠疫情初期的3.9%，更是远低于2021年11月就业市场强劲反弹时期的 ...