21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和 社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下文简称《建议》），对未来五年我国经济社会发展作出系统谋 划和战略部署。 "十五五"是基本实现社会主义现代化的关键五年。到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，一个重要的标志 性指标是人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这要求"十五五"时期经济发展保持适当速度。 《建议》明确提出，经济增长保持在合理区间、全要素生产率稳步提升、居民消费率明显提高、经济增 长潜力得到充分释放、高质量充分就业取得新进展、居民收入增长和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳 动生产率提高同步、分配结构得到优化、中等收入群体持续扩大、基本公共服务均等化水平明显提升等 重要目标。 （中国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉，受访者供图） 经济增长更大挑战来自需求侧 《21世纪》：2035年要实现人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这要求"十五五"时期维持怎样的经济增 速？如何推动全要素生产率的提升？为何要强调提高居民消费率？ 蔡昉：党的二十届四中全会通过的"十五五"规划建议，是从供需两侧来部署的。提高全要素生产率是从 供给侧提出的要求，通过推 ...

分析师们正绞尽脑汁推算就业市场的恶化速率，却始终难以得出确切结论。尽管各类私人调研机构与替代数据来源目前仍未呈现就业市场显著疲软的信号， 但在多数经济学家眼中，失业率潜在波动可能引发一系列连锁反应。 在隔夜发布的每周经济更新中，梅里克尔披露了一组数据，高盛自主研发的裁员追踪器当前读数已超过2019年疫情初期水平。根据该模型的基本预测，未来 六个月美国失业率将从当前的4.3%上升0.2个百分点至4.5%，而失业率飙升0.5个百分点及以上的概率已达到20%-25%。 美联储似乎难以通过传统政策工具扭转这一趋势。布鲁苏埃拉斯警告称，当前劳动力市场的放缓并非源于经济周期波动，而是由人工智能替代、移民政策调 整等因素引发的结构性失业，与周期性失业不同，结构性失业的核心矛盾是劳动力供给结构与市场需求的错配，而美联储的降息政策主要针对需求端刺激， 无法解决供给端的结构性失衡。 RSM首席经济学家乔・布鲁苏埃拉斯在上周五致客户的报告中直言："过去数年贯穿美国就业市场的'劳动力囤积'时代正式落幕。"随着人工智能技术落地路 径逐渐清晰，岗位需求结构发生根本性调整，基础技术岗位被AI工具替代，高端复合型人才需求趋于稳定，曾经的"安 ...

随着人工智能（AI）对现实世界的影响逐渐显现，从科技公司到航空公司，再到大型跨国公司一直在 裁员，这让员工恐惧不已。但有专家认为，人工智能只是当前企业寻求裁员的一个借口，而真正因AI 而起的裁员浪潮尚未到来。 上个月，科技咨询公司埃森哲（Accenture）宣布了一项重组计划，其中包括让无法重新学习人工智能 的员工快速离职。几天后，汉莎航空也表示，由于人工智能提高效率，到2030年将裁减4000个工作岗 位。 Salesforce也在9月份裁掉了4000个客服职位，称人工智能可以完成公司50%的工作。同时，金融科技公 司Klarna也因积极采用人工智能工具，已裁员40%。 牛津互联网研究所（Oxford Internet Institute）人工智能助理教授Fabian Stephany警告称，企业正在将这 项技术作为"替罪羊"，为裁员等具有挑战性的业务举措承担责任。 "我真的怀疑我们目前看到的裁员是否真的是由于真正的效率提高。这实际上是对人工智能的一种预 测，'我们可以利用人工智能来制造好的借口，'"他在接受采访时说道。 Stephany认为，公司可以将自己定位在人工智能技术的前沿，以显示自己的创新和竞争力 ...

来源：保险前线观察员 政府关门？ 这就像你以为只是公司例行年检停工几天，结果老板直接宣布：检查完发现你这个岗位根本不需要存 在。 1.这次真的要动真格了 华尔街的分析师们也坐不住了。 巴克莱的公共政策分析师迈克尔·麦克林在报告里直言："这将是与以往做法的重大背离。"说人话就是 ——以前政府关门都是演戏，这次可能要真刀真枪了。 数字摆在那儿：每关门一周，美国GDP掉0.1个百分点。听起来不多？毕竟之前最长的一次关门，经济 损失也在之后几个月里悄悄补回来了。 在美国这不算啥新鲜事。过去几十年，民主党和共和党为了预算掐架，联邦政府说关就关。 通常的剧本都是这样的：政客们在国会山吵得不可开交，联邦雇员被迫放无薪假，但僵局一结束，大家 该干嘛干嘛，工资补发，GDP损失0.1个百分点，然后？然后就没有然后了。 但这次貌似真的不一样。 特朗普在NBC的采访里语出惊人："我们将永久裁掉很多可以裁掉的人。" 你没听错。不是停薪休假，不是暂时回家待命，而是永久裁员。 2.更要命的是数据黑洞 你以为政府关门只是联邦雇员倒霉？ 错了。 美国劳工部上周五发了个通知：关门期间，几乎所有活动停摆。这意味着什么？你看不到最新的就业数 据，看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions taken by the Trump administration regarding illegal immigration in California, highlighting the deployment of National Guard troops and the political implications of these actions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Government Actions - The Trump administration has deployed 2,000 National Guard personnel to Los Angeles to assist federal agencies in large-scale operations against illegal immigrants [1][2]. - Defense Secretary Mark Esper stated that the Department of Defense is "immediately mobilizing" the National Guard and may deploy active-duty Marines if violence continues [2]. Group 2: Political Reactions - Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass condemned the federal actions, arguing that they spread fear in the community and undermine safety principles [2]. - California Governor Gavin Newsom criticized the federal government for using the National Guard for a publicity stunt rather than addressing real enforcement needs [3]. Group 3: Immigration Policy Context - The article notes that U.S. immigration policy has fluctuated over the years, generally leaning towards leniency, especially under Democratic leadership, while Republicans have a more ambiguous stance [3][4]. - The article suggests that the economic restructuring in the U.S. has led to structural unemployment, with illegal immigrants competing for low-end jobs that cannot be outsourced [4][5]. Group 4: Educational and Economic Implications - The decline in the quality of education due to policy changes has made it difficult for the working class to improve their circumstances, while illegal immigrants compete for low-wage jobs [5][6]. - The article argues that the influx of international students into U.S. universities has diverted resources away from domestic students, exacerbating the challenges faced by the working class [5][6]. Group 5: Political Strategy - The Trump administration's actions are seen as a strategy to provoke the Democratic Party into a more aggressive stance on immigration, thereby undermining their reputation [6][7]. - The article posits that Trump's approach creates moral pressure on the Republican establishment, making it difficult for them to oppose him without facing backlash from the public [7].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy experienced a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth of -0.3% in Q1, falling short of market expectations, indicating a historical turning point for the economy [1] - Structural shocks in the job market and persistent commodity inflation are creating a complex pressure test for the economy, revealing limitations in U.S. policy tools and deep-seated challenges in economic transformation amid a technological revolution [1] Employment Market Dynamics - Federal fiscal tightening is causing structural fractures in the U.S. job market, with significant cuts in federal spending projected to trigger economic contraction in the private sector, particularly in knowledge-intensive fields [1] - A $100 billion reduction in federal spending could lead to the disappearance of core positions in policy research and data management, resulting in a chain reaction of job losses across various industries [1] - The labor market is experiencing a duality, with blue-collar wages rising due to stimulus from the CHIPS Act and infrastructure plans, while white-collar jobs face increasing unemployment and longer matching cycles [1] Impact of AI and Skills Gap - Generative AI is replacing legal and financial analysis jobs at a rate of 2.3% per month, with high-skill jobs making up 17% of elite employment in the U.S. [1] - Only 12% of high-skilled workers have received systematic AI training, while the replacement rate of generative AI jobs exceeds 3% monthly, highlighting a significant skills gap [1] - In Silicon Valley, new engineers are increasingly skilled in multimodal AI tools, but existing employees show a skill update rate of less than 25% [1] Inflation and Economic Policy Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing its most complex decision-making environment in 40 years, with core PCE inflation at 4.1% and significant price stickiness in housing and healthcare [1] - The unemployment rate among high-skilled workers has doubled, contributing to deflationary pressures that contradict commodity inflation, indicating a breakdown of the traditional Phillips curve [1] - Financial conditions are tightening, with commercial bank credit standards at their strictest since 2008, and M2 money supply contracting year-over-year [1] Agricultural Sector and Food Inflation - The volatility in egg prices reflects deeper issues in the U.S. industrial agricultural system, exacerbated by persistent avian influenza outbreaks [1] - The USDA's emergency measures to increase egg imports have heightened reliance on international supply chains, leading to sustained high retail prices despite wholesale price declines [1] - The concentration of production in the poultry industry has increased vulnerability to risks, with three major companies controlling most capacity, raising concerns about systemic resilience [1] Structural Changes in Food Inflation - Food inflation is shifting from cyclical fluctuations to structural pressures, with the rapid mutation of avian influenza viruses and rising feed prices due to extreme weather conditions [1] - The USDA predicts that retail egg prices could rise by over 40% by 2025, driven by the costs associated with supply chain restructuring [1] - The environmental costs of industrial farming practices are becoming evident, as methane emissions contribute significantly to agricultural greenhouse gases, necessitating a reevaluation of efficiency versus resilience in agricultural policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing pressure on youth employment and the need for enhanced employment stabilization policies in response to rising unemployment insurance expenditures [1][6][8]. Group 1: Causes of Employment Pressure - Structural unemployment is primarily driven by industrial restructuring and potential frictional unemployment due to tariffs. The proportion of unemployed individuals with junior high school education remains around 35%, while the share of college graduates and postgraduates has been increasing, reaching 15.5% and 2.2% respectively by 2022 [2][12][72]. - The overlap between low-education groups and migrant workers is significant, with both groups transitioning from manufacturing and construction to the tertiary sector. In 2022, 37.9% of unemployed individuals previously worked as production equipment operators, an increase of 7.5 percentage points since 2018 [17][72]. - Trade friction poses a risk to employment stability, particularly in industries with high reliance on imports from the U.S., such as computer communication and electrical machinery, where the average employment share exceeds 15% [3][30][78]. Group 2: Employment Opportunities - New demands and technologies are creating new job opportunities, particularly in social and life services. By 2023, employment in the tertiary sector increased by 2.8 percentage points compared to 2018, reaching 33.8% [4][40][79]. - Flexible employment roles, such as ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, are rapidly increasing, with the number of professional streamers projected to grow by 157% in 2024. This growth is attributed to lower educational requirements and experience needed for these positions [46][79]. - High-education groups face challenges as traditional industries contract while new technology sectors expand. From 2019 to 2023, employment in new technology sectors like electronic devices and electrical machinery grew at average rates of 9%, 8%, and 8%, while traditional sectors like oil and gas extraction saw declines of -5%, -3%, and -2% [52][53][79]. Group 3: Core Strategies for Employment Stabilization - The focus for stabilizing employment should be on enhancing support for the service sector while addressing skill mismatches in the labor market. Recent policies, such as paid internships for graduates, aim to bridge the gap between education and job market needs [5][57][80]. - Developing the service sector is crucial for alleviating employment pressure on low-education and migrant worker groups, as industries like accommodation and retail generate more jobs per unit of added value [60][67][80]. - Small and micro enterprises, representing a significant portion of the economy, require more fiscal and financial policy support to stimulate market demand and reduce operational costs. Recent surveys indicate that 47.4% of small business owners seek cost reduction measures, while 40.6% require financial support [67][80].