美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上为9月降息铺平了道路，但关键仍在于即将公布的非农就业 数据能否为降息节奏和幅度提供决定性指引。 8月23日，高盛固定收益部门（FICC）交易员Rikin Shah等表示，在杰克逊霍尔会议之前，市场一直处 于观望状态。鲍威尔的最新表态已为9月降息开了绿灯，特别是在最近的就业数据修正引起美联储对就 业市场关注的背景下。 这正是鲍威尔在上次FOMC新闻发布会上提及并在杰克逊霍尔央行年会演讲中重申的"劳动力市场下行 风险"的典型例证。高盛交易员认为，如果8月非农就业增长低于10万人，特别是在政治压力面前，将有 助于确定9月降息。 高盛指出，如果劳动力市场进一步疲软，时间窗口就在当前。该行认为，无论是在经济放缓还是正常化 情景下，美联储都很有可能在下任美联储主席上任前完成本轮降息周期，即2026年上半年结束前。 就业数据修正引发担忧 高盛指出，对未来就业增长修正更可能偏向负面，原因包括多个方面。 首先，出生-死亡模型可能过于乐观； 此外，7月份数据的大幅修正规模也让美联储感到担忧。美联储可能担心，如果经济放缓即将到来而他 们反应过晚怎么办？这种担忧可能促使他们采取更加积极的降息行动 ...

Core Insights - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of a 95,000 job increase, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - Despite the reduction in hiring, wage growth remains stable across various sectors, indicating that the labor market is still resilient [2][3] Employment Situation - The trade/transport/utilities sector added 14,000 jobs, construction added 9,000 jobs, while professional/business services lost 56,000 jobs, manufacturing gained 15,000 jobs, and financial services decreased by 14,000 jobs [1] - The overall wage growth for retained employees remained unchanged at 4.4%, while wage growth for job switchers slightly decreased from 7.0% to 6.8% [2] Economic Implications - The weak ADP employment data may heighten concerns about economic momentum and could lead the Federal Reserve to consider a more accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - The performance of the labor market is crucial for assessing economic health, especially in the context of easing inflation pressures [3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, influenced by the recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3]