1月9日晚间，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据显示，去年12月非农就业人数增加5万人；此前两个月的数据被下修。失业率小幅降至4.4%，在创纪录 的政府长期停摆结束后回落趋稳。 这些数据为美国劳动力市场在去年全年逐步降温的一年画上句号。正因就业市场降温，美联储在2025年末连续三次降息。尽管从招聘强度看，2025年是自 2009年以来最疲弱的年份之一，但雇主整体上也基本避免了大规模裁员。 去年12月数据也显示，劳动力市场在年末仍较脆弱，招聘前景依旧谨慎。经济学家预计，新的一年工作机会仍将有限、薪资涨幅继续降温，可能会加剧选 民对"生活负担能力"的担忧，并在今年中期选举前放大这一议题。 数据显示，去年12月非农就业人数经季节性调整后增加5万人，低于经下修后的11月5.6万人，也不及预期的7.3万人。与此同时，失业率降至4.4%，而市 场原本预计为4.5%。 法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管Subadra Rajappa表示："失业率下降、工资走高，使得美联储在1月按兵不动的理由更充分。" 有分析指出，由于12月失业率降幅大于预期，交易员认为美联储本月降息的可能性几乎为零。 市场认为，是否还会进一步降息，关键取决于未 ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 14861, with an opening price of 14482 and a current price of 14912, reflecting a 3.04% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 15010, while the lowest was 14464, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The analysis suggests that the silver TD market is maintaining a high-level oscillation, with a focus on support levels between 14000-14400 and resistance levels between 15000-15500 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives voted 237 to 140 to table the impeachment motion against President Donald Trump, with all Republican members supporting the motion [2] - The White House indicated that the Trump administration will continue dialogue regarding Ukraine, with potential participation in peace talks if they are productive [2] - Analysts from First Abu Dhabi Bank noted that the U.S. interest rate outlook is at a critical turning point, with expectations that any additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will not exceed 50 basis points [2]

阿布扎比第一银行分析师在一份报告中称，未来几个月的美国利率前景目前正处于一个关键转折点。他 们表示："全球市场需要做好准备——如果还没有准备好的话——以应对一系列可能出现的结果。"阿布 扎比第一银行预计，美联储在2026年额外降息的幅度将不超过50个基点。不过，他们表示，最终今年的 利率路径将在很大程度上取决于通胀的演变情况、劳动力市场的表现以及内外部政策风险如何发展。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates that current data signals a poor performance in the labor market [1] - CPI data will be beneficial for the upcoming meeting [1] - If inflation rises and then falls, it should not impact monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to consider interest rate cuts but must proceed with caution [1] - There is an openness to a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, contingent on upcoming non-farm employment data [1][8] - Goldman Sachs highlights that if August non-farm employment growth is below 100,000, it will support the case for a rate cut [1][2] - Concerns about employment data revisions suggest a potential negative bias, with historical trends indicating that original employment data often gets revised downward [2][4] Group 2 - The labor market's performance will significantly influence the rate cut path, with a current window for potential further slowdown in employment data [3][4] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the high level of market focus on August non-farm data, given the scale of previous data revisions [4][8] - The current economic scenario suggests that the rate cut cycle could conclude by mid-2026, coinciding with the next Federal Reserve Chair's term [5][6][8]

Core Insights - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of a 95,000 job increase, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - Despite the reduction in hiring, wage growth remains stable across various sectors, indicating that the labor market is still resilient [2][3] Employment Situation - The trade/transport/utilities sector added 14,000 jobs, construction added 9,000 jobs, while professional/business services lost 56,000 jobs, manufacturing gained 15,000 jobs, and financial services decreased by 14,000 jobs [1] - The overall wage growth for retained employees remained unchanged at 4.4%, while wage growth for job switchers slightly decreased from 7.0% to 6.8% [2] Economic Implications - The weak ADP employment data may heighten concerns about economic momentum and could lead the Federal Reserve to consider a more accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - The performance of the labor market is crucial for assessing economic health, especially in the context of easing inflation pressures [3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, influenced by the recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3]