劳动力市场表现

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美联储理事沃勒:美联储需要降息,但需谨慎为之
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 12:01
据报道,美联储理事沃勒表示,目前各项数据都在传递同一个信号,即劳动力市场表现不佳;CPI数据 将对即将召开的会议大有帮助;如果通胀抬头后又回落,这不应影响货币政策;美联储需要降息,但需 谨慎为之;对即将召开的会议上的25个基点降息持开放态度。 ...
高盛交易员:现在,一切取决于9月的非农
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-24 01:50
Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, contingent on upcoming non-farm employment data [1][8] - Goldman Sachs highlights that if August non-farm employment growth is below 100,000, it will support the case for a rate cut [1][2] - Concerns about employment data revisions suggest a potential negative bias, with historical trends indicating that original employment data often gets revised downward [2][4] Group 2 - The labor market's performance will significantly influence the rate cut path, with a current window for potential further slowdown in employment data [3][4] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the high level of market focus on August non-farm data, given the scale of previous data revisions [4][8] - The current economic scenario suggests that the rate cut cycle could conclude by mid-2026, coinciding with the next Federal Reserve Chair's term [5][6][8]
美国6月 ADP 数据远低于预期 薪资增速稳定但就业市场现隐忧
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 13:41
Core Insights - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of a 95,000 job increase, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - Despite the reduction in hiring, wage growth remains stable across various sectors, indicating that the labor market is still resilient [2][3] Employment Situation - The trade/transport/utilities sector added 14,000 jobs, construction added 9,000 jobs, while professional/business services lost 56,000 jobs, manufacturing gained 15,000 jobs, and financial services decreased by 14,000 jobs [1] - The overall wage growth for retained employees remained unchanged at 4.4%, while wage growth for job switchers slightly decreased from 7.0% to 6.8% [2] Economic Implications - The weak ADP employment data may heighten concerns about economic momentum and could lead the Federal Reserve to consider a more accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - The performance of the labor market is crucial for assessing economic health, especially in the context of easing inflation pressures [3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, influenced by the recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3]