投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-29 美伊关系⾛向仍有不确定，原油及化⼯ 延续震荡整理 美伊关系可能面临重大变化，原油价格近期将维持较高波动率。彭博 报道，1月28日美国总统特朗普警告伊朗，与美国达成协议的时间已经所 剩不多，并表示一支进入该地区的美国军舰编队已准备好"以速度和迅猛 之势"完成任务；特朗普表示，伊朗回到谈判桌前，就一项"公平公正的 协议——不能有核武器"展开谈判。伊朗日产原油330万桶，所在区域也 是诸多产油国云集，美伊和谈或是决裂将成为原油市场短期走势的关键。 原油短期供给端也受到了一些天气端的扰动，主要在北美区域。投资者以 震荡思路对待油价。（上述信息均来自彭博终端。） 板块逻辑： 化工产业链整体延续震荡格局。当前化工产业链尚不能说空头力量云 集的一个重要原因是，下游也出现了价格的同步抬升，这种涨幅可能不及 盘面的原料，但也能勉强跟随，这表现在聚酯、苯乙烯和聚烯烃的下游。 化工中格局偏弱的是甲醇，当前占据甲醇需求50%的MTO装置开工位于五年 最低，甲醇港口库存位于五年最高，而冬季即将过去，伊朗停车的装置也 将在2-3月间重启 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the chemical market currently lacks a clear direction, with macroeconomic sentiment providing only temporary support for prices, which remain volatile overall [1] - China's retail sales data is weak, leading to market expectations for government stimulus policies to boost consumption [1] - Despite a general rise in chemical prices, the rebound is hesitant, with many products like PP and PTA showing weakened basis as futures prices increase [1] Group 2 - The current refinery maintenance season has not seen significant unexpected repairs, making it difficult for reduced chemical supply to support a substantial price rebound [1] - There is ongoing pressure on crude oil supply, and geopolitical risks need to be monitored [1] - The market for methanol shows ongoing contradictions between near and far-month prices, leading to price volatility [1] Group 3 - Urea prices are under pressure due to the overall rebound in the chemical sector, leading to short-term price fluctuations [1] - Ethylene glycol prices are suppressed by expectations of a loose supply-demand balance in the future [1] - PX's fundamentals are not optimistic, with processing fees being compressed again [1] Group 4 - PTA faces weak polyester demand, with ample spot circulation leading to pressure on the basis [1] - Short fibers are following cost fluctuations, with general demand being average [1] - PVC is experiencing weak reality but strong expectations, resulting in volatile operations [1] Group 5 - The outlook suggests that while macroeconomic sentiment has temporarily boosted chemical prices, the overall trend remains one of volatility [1] - Risks include potential significant tariff increases by the U.S. on China and changes in OPEC+ production policies [1]