联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 20 元至 6146 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6245 元/吨 （+10），华南瓶片价格 6275 元/吨（+25）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 5882 手至 6.81 万手，空头持仓减少 5988 手至 7.1 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with Germany and France sending troops to Greenland. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side is facing the expectation of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the LL2605 contract has no new production capacity pressure. The rebound in the cost side and the alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [15][17][18]. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6300 - 6600); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6200 - 6500). The recommended strategy is to go long on LL2605 - LL2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17]. Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information** - Policy: International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with Germany and France sending troops to Greenland [15]. - Valuation: For polyethylene, the weekly increase is (spot > futures > cost); for polypropylene, it is also (spot > futures > cost) [15]. - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil rose by 10.77%, Brent crude oil rose by 10.94%, coal prices rose by 1.15%, methanol rose by 1.33%, ethylene rose by 12.01%, propylene rose by 2.65%, and propane rose by 2.34%. There is still support on the cost side [15]. - Supply: PE capacity utilization is 81.56%, a week - on - week decrease of - 2.19%, a year - on - year decrease of - 4.13%, and a decrease of - 9.64% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization is 76.61%, a week - on - week increase of 3.74%, a year - on - year decrease of - 2.56%, and a decrease of - 10.55% compared to the five - year average. With the approaching spring maintenance and low profits in each process, there is an expectation of significant production cuts [15]. - Imports and Exports: In November, domestic PE imports were 1.0622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 9.99%. PP imports were 179,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.97% and a year - on - year decrease of - 8.74%. The import profit has rebounded, and the supply of PE from North America has increased, increasing the pressure on the import side. In November, PE exports were 85,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 38.74%. PP exports were 224,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 36.59% [15]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE is 41.10%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 104.58%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.58%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. It is the seasonal off - season, and there are no bright spots in the downstream operating rate of polyolefins [16]. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory is 350,300 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 11.41% and a year - on - year stocking of 7.72%; PE trader inventory is 29,200 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 0.14%. PP production enterprise inventory is 431,000 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 7.85% and a year - on - year stocking of 8.16%; PP trader inventory is 193,900 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 5.28%; PP port inventory is 70,600 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 0.70%. Middle - stream traders have started to stock up [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - International geopolitical conflicts have escalated. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side is facing the expectation of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the LL2605 contract has no new production capacity pressure. The rebound in the cost side and the alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6300 - 6600); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6200 - 6500). - Recommended strategy: Go long on LL2605 - LL2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, prices, trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads of LLDPE and PP futures contracts, as well as the price differences between different polyolefin products [31][32][47]. 3. Cost Side - The oil - based cost has increased significantly. The report presents multiple charts related to the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., as well as the production capacity utilization rate and gross profit of domestic LPG refineries, and the import and export situation of LPG [72][78][81]. 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - The raw materials for PE production mainly include oil, light hydrocarbons, coal, methanol, and外购乙烯, with oil - based raw materials accounting for 80%. - The report shows charts of PE production capacity utilization, maintenance loss volume, and production volume, as well as those of LLDPE [136][137][142]. 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Charts are presented to show the inventory situation of PE production enterprises, traders, and different types of enterprises, as well as the import sources, import volume, and import profit of LLDPE [158][163][166]. 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - The downstream demand for LLDPE is mainly concentrated in packaging films, followed by agriculture films, pipes, etc. - The report provides charts of the downstream operating rate, order days, and raw material and finished product inventory of PE [171][173][182]. 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - The raw materials for PP production mainly include oil, PDH, coal, methanol, and外购丙烯, with外购丙烯 accounting for 53%. - Charts of PP production capacity utilization, maintenance loss volume, and production volume are provided [193][194][199]. 8. Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Charts show the inventory situation of PP production enterprises, different types of enterprises, and traders, as well as the import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP [207][208][222]. 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - The downstream demand for PP is mainly concentrated in BOPP, followed by injection molding, drawing, etc. - The report provides charts of the downstream operating rate, raw material and finished product inventory of PP [228][230][235].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has ordered military focus on the blockade of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months [2][22] - The inventory of pure benzene in East China is currently around 264,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous period, representing a 6.02% rise [23][30] - The domestic comprehensive operating rate of pure benzene is 77.01%, up by 0.35 percentage points compared to the previous period [24][7] Group 2 - Recent rebounds in crude oil prices have led to a slight increase in pure benzene prices, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to persistent inventory pressures [25] - The operating rate of domestic styrene is 71.31%, which is an increase of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week [32] - The main inventory of styrene in Jiangsu is currently 132,000 tons, with a slight increase of 2,000 tons, while trade spot volume remains stable at around 100,000 tons [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating", with a short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitude of -5% - 5% [4][77] Core View - Crude oil rebounds, and asphalt follows the upward trend. The overall situation of asphalt is that supply remains high, demand in the north declines due to the rainy season, and the peak season fails to show strong performance. The general trend continues to fluctuate with crude oil [4] Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It has a neutral impact. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1312,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). The current capacity utilization rate is low due to factors such as some refineries switching production or entering maintenance [4] - **Demand**: It has a negative impact. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Although there is an increase in total shipments this week (up 9.2% from the previous cycle), the overall demand shows a slow downward trend with the drop in temperature [4] - **Inventory**: It has a neutral impact. The factory inventory shows a mixed trend of rising and falling, with a significant decline in South China. The social inventory is in a destocking state, especially in the north [4] - **Cost**: It has a neutral impact. International oil prices fluctuated slightly upward this week. They were dragged down at the beginning of the week and rebounded later due to various factors such as geopolitical situations and inventory data [4] - **Investment View**: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate, following the general trend of crude oil [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no specific strategy [4] 2. Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 through charts [6][7][10] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The report shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 through charts [15][16] - **Basis**: The basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2020 to 2025 is presented in a chart [19] 4. Supply - **Production Plan**: The monthly production plan and actual output of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10 are shown, as well as the production in regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [23][26][29] - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts [34][38][40] - **Maintenance Loss**: The weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 are shown in a chart [45] 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: The production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 is presented through a chart [48][49] - **Diluted Asphalt**: The price, premium/discount, and port inventory (in China and Shandong) of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown in charts [52][53] 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: The factory inventory volumes in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [57] - **Factory Inventory Rate**: The factory inventory rates in different regions from 2019 to 2025 are shown in charts [60] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory volumes in different regions from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [63] 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: The shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [66] - **Downstream开工率**: The开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 are presented through charts [68][72] - **Modified Asphalt开工率**: The开工率 of modified asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [75]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the chemical market currently lacks a clear direction, with macroeconomic sentiment providing only temporary support for prices, which remain volatile overall [1] - China's retail sales data is weak, leading to market expectations for government stimulus policies to boost consumption [1] - Despite a general rise in chemical prices, the rebound is hesitant, with many products like PP and PTA showing weakened basis as futures prices increase [1] Group 2 - The current refinery maintenance season has not seen significant unexpected repairs, making it difficult for reduced chemical supply to support a substantial price rebound [1] - There is ongoing pressure on crude oil supply, and geopolitical risks need to be monitored [1] - The market for methanol shows ongoing contradictions between near and far-month prices, leading to price volatility [1] Group 3 - Urea prices are under pressure due to the overall rebound in the chemical sector, leading to short-term price fluctuations [1] - Ethylene glycol prices are suppressed by expectations of a loose supply-demand balance in the future [1] - PX's fundamentals are not optimistic, with processing fees being compressed again [1] Group 4 - PTA faces weak polyester demand, with ample spot circulation leading to pressure on the basis [1] - Short fibers are following cost fluctuations, with general demand being average [1] - PVC is experiencing weak reality but strong expectations, resulting in volatile operations [1] Group 5 - The outlook suggests that while macroeconomic sentiment has temporarily boosted chemical prices, the overall trend remains one of volatility [1] - Risks include potential significant tariff increases by the U.S. on China and changes in OPEC+ production policies [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the asphalt market, with the core view that the asphalt market is influenced by factors such as crude oil price rebound and inventory changes. The trend strength of asphalt is rated 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On May 25, 2025, the closing price of BU2506 was 3,532 yuan/ton, down 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 3,535 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The closing price of BU2507 was 3,516 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 3,521 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts decreased [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,625 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,580 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refinery operating rate was 29.21%, down 1.67% from the previous period, and the refinery inventory rate was 30.31%, down 0.33% from the previous period [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 06) was 93 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 06 - 07 inter - period spread was 16 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Production**: From May 16 - 22, 2025, the weekly total output of domestic asphalt was 507,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons or 7.1% from the previous week, but an increase of 45,000 tons or 9.7% year - on - year. The cumulative output from January to May was 1.1499 billion tons, an increase of 43,000 tons or 3.9% year - on - year [12]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 878,000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% from May 19. The inventory of 104 domestic social warehouses was 1.876 million tons, an increase of 0.9% from May 19 [12].