投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 原油反弹，沥青跟涨 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 沥青：原油反弹，沥青跟涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）11月地炼排产降低：根据隆众对92家企业跟踪，2025年11月份国内沥青地炼排产量为131.2万吨，环比下降29.2万吨，降幅18.2%，同比下降9.1万吨， 降幅6.5%。 | | | | （2）本周江苏新海切换生产渣油，叠加无棣鑫岳暂停沥青产出、山东胜星与广州石化进入停产检修阶段，共同造成当前产能利用率走低。 | | | | （1）需求：受资金面与北方冷空气双重影响，山东、华北市场持续低迷，山东通过下调出货价刺激下游接货且降雨减少后存在赶工情况，华东同样需 求疲软、低价频现且出货量偏低，华北成交表现一般，伴随气温下降市场需 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the chemical market currently lacks a clear direction, with macroeconomic sentiment providing only temporary support for prices, which remain volatile overall [1] - China's retail sales data is weak, leading to market expectations for government stimulus policies to boost consumption [1] - Despite a general rise in chemical prices, the rebound is hesitant, with many products like PP and PTA showing weakened basis as futures prices increase [1] Group 2 - The current refinery maintenance season has not seen significant unexpected repairs, making it difficult for reduced chemical supply to support a substantial price rebound [1] - There is ongoing pressure on crude oil supply, and geopolitical risks need to be monitored [1] - The market for methanol shows ongoing contradictions between near and far-month prices, leading to price volatility [1] Group 3 - Urea prices are under pressure due to the overall rebound in the chemical sector, leading to short-term price fluctuations [1] - Ethylene glycol prices are suppressed by expectations of a loose supply-demand balance in the future [1] - PX's fundamentals are not optimistic, with processing fees being compressed again [1] Group 4 - PTA faces weak polyester demand, with ample spot circulation leading to pressure on the basis [1] - Short fibers are following cost fluctuations, with general demand being average [1] - PVC is experiencing weak reality but strong expectations, resulting in volatile operations [1] Group 5 - The outlook suggests that while macroeconomic sentiment has temporarily boosted chemical prices, the overall trend remains one of volatility [1] - Risks include potential significant tariff increases by the U.S. on China and changes in OPEC+ production policies [1]

沥青：原油反弹，去库支撑 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 2025 年 5 月 26 日 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,532 | -0.56% | 3,535 | 0.08% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,516 | -0.65% | 3,521 | 0.14% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2506 | 手 | 22,165 | (17,677) | 43,817 | (3,883) | | | BU2507 | 手 | 182,690 | (50,907) | 172,588 | (15,102) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 86510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨 ...