石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.02%，石油石化行业占比为32.43%。行业新一轮景气周期开启，下游 化工品的利润修复改善在望。 每日经济新闻 西南证券认为，全球视角来看，化工行业已经处于新一轮景气周期的起点。我国化工企业在过去几年从 做大到做强，具备了更为坚实的利润基础和更为可观的利润弹性。 截至2月27日10点整，石化ETF（159731）涨0.84%，持仓股万华化学、恒力石化、光威复材涨幅居前。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计10.95亿元。石化ETF最新份 额达17.52亿份，最新规模18.74亿元。 春节假期期间，国际油价高涨，拉动聚酯链上的各产品开年首日普涨。业内人士分析，2026年，包括聚 酯在内的化工行业整体将运行在"反内卷"的逻辑当中，以价换量的模式已逐渐淡出历史舞台，涤纶长丝 在26年将很难出现低于成本价的情况。叠加现阶段并不太平的世界局势，预计26年的聚酯将呈现出一个 偏强的态势。 ...

Market Overview - As of February 25, 2026, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index (H11057) increased by 1.01%, with notable gains from Yuntianhua (up 10.01%), Hebang Biotechnology (up 9.92%), Chuanfa Longmang (up 7.76%), Xingfa Group (up 5.29%), and Shengquan Group (up 4.65%) [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) rose by 0.47%, closing at 1.06 yuan, with a turnover rate of 9.65% during the trading session and a total capital inflow of 1.153 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days [1] Key News - The main crude oil futures on INE fell by 1.60 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.33%, settling at 488.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also saw declines, with high-sulfur fuel oil down by 10.00 yuan/ton (0.34%) at 2943.00 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil down by 41.00 yuan/ton (1.18%) at 3436.00 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for natural rubber rose by 2.10%, while the main contract for No. 20 rubber increased by 2.34%, with Shanghai spot prices adjusting to around 16,300 yuan/ton. The market anticipates continued strong fluctuations in rubber prices due to rising external prices and crude oil [1] Institutional Insights - Southwest Securities suggests that the global chemical industry is at the beginning of a new prosperity cycle. Chinese chemical companies have strengthened their profit foundations and elasticity over recent years. Looking ahead to 2026, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting phase and minimal recession risks, and China prioritizing domestic demand, supply and demand improvements in the chemical industry are expected to exceed expectations [3] Popular ETFs - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry for 32.43%. This positioning allows for participation in the profit recovery of downstream chemical products. The industry narrative is expected to improve in the medium to long term due to structural adjustments in supply and demand [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery opportunity across various sub-sectors, with specific recommendations for leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) in the MDI sector, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028, Buy) in the refining sector [3][5] - The demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise, driven by investments in the iron-lithium supply chain, indicating a tightening supply-demand situation that may elevate market conditions [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report continues to favor recovery opportunities in the chemical sub-sectors, recommending leading companies such as: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC industry: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining sector: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Agricultural chemical chain: Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Xinyangfeng (000902, Buy), Shidanli (002588, Not Rated), Yuntu Holdings (002539, Not Rated), Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy) - Phosphate chemical sector: Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated), Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) - Oxalic acid sector: Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3] Market Dynamics - The chemical industry has seen increased attention, with a recovery in stock prices following a dip influenced by precious metals and crude oil futures. This indicates a shift away from previous narratives tied to external market influences [8] - The report highlights that the current chemical market rally is primarily driven by policy guidance and strategic adjustments within the industry, suggesting a return to a favorable economic cycle for the chemical sector [8]