（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 天风证券指出，石化行业正迎来"控增量、去存量政策驱动下的重要拐点。从产能周期来看，行业 已进入投产尾声阶段，2026年多数产品产能增速明显放缓。展望2026年，PX产业链在供需矛盾加剧背 景下有望为炼化企业贡献显著盈利弹性，PTA及涤纶长丝在反内卷推进及产能增速放缓驱动下持续改 善。预计2027-2028年行业将实现从点状复苏到全面改善的过渡，建议重点关注在细分领域具备竞争优 势的龙头企业。 石化ETF（159731）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为 60.85%，石油石化行业占比为32.16%，政策针对化工行业的"反内卷"措施持续加码，成为板块走强的 核心支撑。 每日经济新闻 截至11月27日10点55分，石化ETF（159731）涨0.49%持仓股兴发集团、鲁西化工、亚钾国际等涨 幅居前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近10个交易日有8个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸 金"2242万元。石化ETF最新份额达2.28亿份，创新高。 近日，位于重庆市的半山环道"气氢电服"综合加能站获得国家实用新型专利认证以及重庆首台套重 大技术装备认证。这标志着全 ...

中银证券指出，今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，中长期推荐投资 主线：1、政策加持下需求有望复苏，供给端持续优化，优秀龙头企业业绩估值有望双提升；2、下游行 业快速发展，半导体材料、OLED材料、新能源材料等新兴领域公司发展空间广阔；3、深化供给侧结 构性改革，关注景气度有望维持高位或持续提升子行业包括氟化工、农化、炼化、染料、涤纶长丝、轮 胎等。 石化ETF（159731）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为 60.85%，石油石化行业占比为32.16%，政策驱动下我国石化产业有望重塑竞争力，供给侧结构性改革 推动景气度持续上行。 截至9:50，石化ETF（159731）跌0.12%，持仓股亚钾国际、蓝晓科技、凯赛生物、盐湖股份等涨幅居 前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近10个交易日有8个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"2413万 元。石化ETF最新份额达2.27亿份，创成立以来新高。 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》出台的背景是，行业面临基础原料竞争加剧与高端 化学品供给不足并存的局面，其核心目标是从源头上减少行业的" ...

从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1310.40万元。份额方面，石化ETF最新份额达2.27亿份，创近1年新高。规模方 面，石化ETF最新规模达1.84亿元，创近1年新高。 截至2025年11月26日9:35，中证石化产业指数上涨0.3%，成分股亚钾国际、广东宏大、新凤鸣、华峰化学、荣盛石化等领涨。石化ETF(159731)上涨0.12%， 最新价报0.81元。 截至11月24日，石化ETF近6月净值上涨22.83%。从收益能力看，截至2025年11月25日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为6个 月，最长连涨涨幅为23.51%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.06%。截至2025年11月25日，石化ETF近6个月超越基准年化收益为4.92%。 华创证券认为，三季报结束，年底化工有望再迎布局期。三季报到年报出炉，市场面临5个月的业绩空窗期，投资人面临布局明年和风格切换的需要，其认 为，化工是值得布局的选择之一。化工行业的整体加权开工率在历史高点，而价差还在底部，距离反转还需要看到库存的去化，但已经有零星品种率先走出 底部反转趋势。石化化工行业稳增长工作 ...

申万宏源认为，预计2026年油价维持中性区间，炼化与聚酯板块在供给收缩下景气度有望底部修复。该 机构判断，2026年原油供需基本维持弱平衡，油价中枢相比2025年稳中略降，中长期油价仍将维持中性 区间；2026年在国内"反内卷"政策推动、海外炼化产能逐步退出下，炼化盈利预期将有所修复；聚酯产 业链未来新增投资不大，景气存在较大弹性。 石化ETF（159731）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为 60.85%，石油石化行业占比为32.16%。随着石化产业供需持续改善，细分板块景气度有望持续上行。 11月21日，A股市场震荡调整，石化ETF（159731）随指数下行，盘中跌逾3.5%，持仓股中仅彤程新材 和三棵树飘红。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近10个交易日有8个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸 金"1691万元。 近日，化工板块迎来结构性机会。具体而言，炼油板块由于俄罗斯炼厂遭袭、欧美部分炼能关闭等供给 侧因素，全球炼油利润维持在多年高位，拥有炼厂资产的企业将直接受益。硫磺因需求受到新能源、化 肥等领域的强力拉动，而供给却因炼能增长放缓及地缘政治因素受限，导致价格飙升。此外 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index increasing by approximately 0.4%, driven by strong performances from constituent stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials, Shengquan Group, and Kaisa Bio [1] - The third Petrochemical Industry High-Quality Development Forum emphasized the need for a high-quality transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical industry, focusing on new productive forces, innovation, green development, and safety [1] - Guosen Securities noted that stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and the accelerated elimination of outdated capacities will effectively alleviate the oversupply issue in the petrochemical and chemical industry [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top three sectors being refining and trading (26.76%), chemical products (22.41%), and agricultural chemicals (21.14%) [2] - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit significantly from policies aimed at reducing competition, structural adjustments, and the elimination of outdated capacities, with a clear direction towards green, low-carbon, and intelligent development [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the petrochemical industry is experiencing a positive shift in supply-demand dynamics, driven by reduced capital expenditure and gradual demand recovery, which is expected to enhance industry prosperity [1][2]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a 1.44% increase as of November 19, with notable gains from stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Salt Lake Co., totaling an inflow of 17.57 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, reaching a new high of 209 million shares [1]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully launched its polypropylene facility at the Dasha Petrochemical project, which is the largest heavy oil direct-to-olefins production base in China, with a total investment of 21 billion yuan [1]. Group 2 - The top three sectors in the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index are refining and trading (26.76%), chemical products (22.41%), and agricultural chemical products (21.14%), indicating a strong long-term value in the industry supported by "anti-involution" policies [2]. - The recent technological innovations in the catalytic cracking unit at CNOOC's Dasha project have addressed several industry challenges, significantly improving operational efficiency, economic benefits, and environmental performance [1].

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has experienced a decline of 2.11% as of November 18, with mixed performance among its holdings, indicating a potential low-point buying opportunity due to significant net inflows of 17.53 million yuan over the past 10 trading days [1] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is expected to see a reduction in excessive competition and capacity duplication as regulatory measures against internal competition deepen, leading to improved market conditions [1] - Investment recommendations for November suggest focusing on sectors with significant supply-side improvement and high profit elasticity, such as polyester filament, organic silicon, and spandex, while also considering potassium and phosphorus chemical industries under the backdrop of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] ETF and Index Tracking - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which is composed of three major sectors: refining and trading (26.8%), chemical products (22.4%), and agricultural chemicals (21.1%), providing investors with a streamlined approach to capitalize on the chemical industry's recovery [1]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong performance, particularly in the phosphorus chemical stocks, with notable gains from companies like Qing Shui Yuan and Chengxing Co., which have seen consecutive trading limits [1] - The Chemical Materials ETF is leading the market with a 3.36% increase, while other chemical ETFs also show significant gains, with the Chemical Leader ETF and Chemical 50 ETF both rising over 3% [1][2] - The yellow phosphorus index increased by 4% as of November 4, with a cumulative rise of over 7% in the past two weeks, indicating a positive trend in the market [2] Group 2 - The average market price of thionyl chloride has surged by 8.61% to 1552 yuan/ton, with a total increase of 19.38% since August, reflecting strong demand and pricing power in the chemical sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical sector, with the Petrochemical ETF (159731) rising by 1.11% and reaching a new high in both shares and scale [1] - The signing of significant procurement contracts at the China International Import Expo, with China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) signing agreements worth over $40.9 billion with 34 partners from 17 countries, indicates strong demand in the energy sector [1] - The report from Kaiyuan Securities suggests that capital expenditures for major chemical companies are expected to decline year-on-year before the third quarter of 2025, while the "anti-involution" policy is improving the supply-demand dynamics in the chemical industry, leading to enhanced profitability and potential valuation increases [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 61.93% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 30.84% of the index [1] - The release of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" is expected to support the industry scale over the next two years, highlighting the long-term value of the petrochemical sector under favorable policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a significant increase in both share price and net inflow, indicating strong market confidence and investment interest in the sector, particularly following the launch of a major ethylene project in Guangxi, China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 6, the petrochemical ETF (159731) rose by 2.02%, with notable gains from stocks like Yuntianhua, Yangnong Chemical, and Xingfa Group [1]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past nine days, totaling 104 million yuan, with its latest share count reaching 191 million and total assets at 151 million yuan, both marking a one-year high [1]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The launch of China's largest million-ton ethylene project in Guangxi is a key driver for the shift from "oil reduction to chemical increase" and the transition from basic chemicals to high-end chemical new materials [1]. - The project has laid a solid foundation for the domestic replacement of high-end chemical equipment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by technological innovations [1]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - China Galaxy Securities highlights that the OPEC+ decision to pause production increases has boosted market confidence, with a relatively stable cost structure expected in the industry [1]. - The recent release of the 14th Five-Year Plan draft suggests a focus on restructuring competition and fostering emerging industries, with investment opportunities seen in sectors like PTA, polyester filament, and robotic materials [1].