1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention through a decline in exports when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, high port inventories are suppressing prices. Overseas production remains high, and the supply pressure persists while demand is weak. It's expected that inventories will be hard to reduce in the short term, and prices may decline further. Given the current significant and rapid drop, it's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large internal - external price differences and low domestic prices. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are being reduced. It's expected that the downside space is limited, and the market will mainly bottom out through oscillations [9]. - For natural rubber, a short - term long - bias trading strategy is recommended, and a partial position can be established for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are turning negative. There is a continuous inventory build - up pressure. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward correction. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Styrene port inventories are decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in stages [17]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. However, a high number of warehouse receipts is suppressing the market. Overall inventories are being reduced from a high level, and prices may remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end supply surplus may expand. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Overall inventory pressure is high, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - For PX, it's expected to have a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. There are opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [26]. - For PTA, there will be continuous inventory build - up in November due to new device launches, and processing fees will be under pressure. The polyester load is unlikely to increase significantly. There are opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, there will be continuous inventory build - up in the fourth quarter. Valuation is relatively low and may be further compressed. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.59% increase, at 458.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 24.00 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, at 2593.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 14.00 yuan/ton, a 0.43% increase, at 3236.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data shows a 0.41 - million - barrel decrease in arrival inventory to 206.43 million barrels, a 0.20% decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.34 million barrels to 86.96 million barrels, a 1.52% decline; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.60 million barrels to 95.60 million barrels, a 0.62% decline; and total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 182.57 million barrels, a 1.05% decline [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 32, remained stable in southern Shandong, decreased by 20 in Inner Mongolia, and the 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 26 yuan to 2029 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 14. The 1 - 5 spread was - 8, reported at - 116 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see due to high inventories, high overseas production, weak demand, and potential price decline [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, decreased by 10 in Henan, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 10 yuan to 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 72. The 1 - 5 spread was 0, reported at - 75 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is sensitive to positive news. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the situation, and the market will mainly bottom out through oscillations [9]. Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded in oscillations. Typhoons affected rainfall in the Thai production area, and the November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange will expire and be out of storage. The market has a positive expectation. The long - side believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while the short - side points out uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, 0.84 percentage points lower than last week but 5.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, 0.08 percentage points lower than last week and 4.38 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 9, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 105.63 tons, a 0.03 - ton increase (0.03% increase); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14600 (+50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1820 (+5) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6950 (+0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 10000 (+100) yuan [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term long - bias trading strategy and partially establish a hedge position [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 7 yuan to 4601 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4510 (-10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (-2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 315 (-5) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 735 (-5) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, a 2.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.4% decrease; the ethylene method was 73.3%, a 6.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventory was 32.2 tons (-1.2), and social inventory was 102.8 tons (-1.3) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation is poor, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5375 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 22 yuan/ton to 5547 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 173 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan decrease. The spot price of styrene increased by 125 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 46 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton, and the basis was 0 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 106.87 yuan/ton, a 20.12 - yuan increase. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 363.25 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The EB 1 - 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.31% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.45 tons to 17.48 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, a 0.21% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.40%, a 1.90% increase; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, a 2.32% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, a 0.20% increase [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward correction, and styrene prices may stop falling in stages [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 6843 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6865 yuan/ton, and the basis was 12 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.72%, a 1.95% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory increased by 3.90 tons to 52.92 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.01 tons to 5.00 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 0.05% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a 13 - yuan expansion [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price may have bottomed out, and PE valuation has limited downward space. However, high warehouse receipts are suppressing the market, and prices will remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 7 yuan to 6467 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6525 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 80.82%, a 1.34% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.01 tons to 62 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.13 tons to 21.73 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.23 tons to 6.69 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a 0.52% increase. The LL - PP spread was 376 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan decrease [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end supply surplus may expand. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Wait for the change in the supply - surplus situation at the cost end in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 6796 yuan, the CFR price decreased by 1 dollar to 831 dollars, and the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), the 1 - 3 spread was - 24 yuan (-2). The PX load in China was 86.8%, a 3% decrease; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 1.7% decrease. Shanghai Petrochemical stopped production, Sinochem Quanzhou had an unexpected early maintenance, and Vietnam's NSRP plans to reduce production for 2 weeks this weekend. The PTA load was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China in early November, a 1.8 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 255 dollars (-2), the South Korean PX - MX was 99 dollars (-1), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 dollars (-1) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in November, but there are opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 4692 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan, the basis was - 73 yuan (+2), the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.5%, a 0.8% decrease. Terminal draw - texturing load remained unchanged at 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 74%. On November 7, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 222.7 tons, a 2 - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 15 yuan to 165 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 1 yuan to 234 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There will be continuous inventory build - up in November, and processing fees will be under pressure. There are opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [28][29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3938 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 3980 yuan, the basis was 42 yuan (-11), the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan (+6). The supply - end operating rate of ethylene glycol was 71.6%, a 0.9% decrease; the synthetic gas method was 68%, a 4.3% decrease; the ethylene method was 73.6%, a 0.9% increase. Import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons, and the average daily departure from East China ports from November 14 - 16 was 0.9 tons. Port inventory was 73.2 tons, a 7.1 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 826 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of lump coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect continuous inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, and consider short - selling on rallies [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, with rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, with the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, the price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry fundamentals show high supply, increasing imports, and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [29][30]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.37%, at 460.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%, at 2728.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil fell 8.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, at 3269.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.20 million barrels to 421.17 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; SPR replenished 0.50 million barrels to 409.60 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 4.73 million barrels to 206.01 million barrels, a 2.24% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 111.55 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 21.89 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.28 million barrels to 41.70 million barrels, a 0.67% increase [2]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The Taicang price decreased by 2, Inner Mongolia increased by 15, and the price in southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 16 yuan, at 2125 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 101 [3]. - **Strategy Views**: With rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while that in Hubei increased by 10. Most regions remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 11 yuan, at 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 74. The 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 83 [4]. - **Strategy Views**: With the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, 0.21 percentage points higher than last week and 5.35 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, 0.24 percentage points lower than last week and 4.37 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton increase, a 1.6% increase. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 658,000 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,000 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The total spot inventory in the Qingdao area increased by 12,200 tons to 436,300 tons. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 145,350 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 18,200 (+20) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1805 (+20) dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6850 (+100) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 98,700 (+100) yuan [10][11]. - **Strategy Views**: The price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 8 yuan, at 4630 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (-20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (-2) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (+70) yuan/ton, and ethylene was 740 (0) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 77.4%, a 3.1% increase; the ethylene method was 80.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. The factory inventory was 338,000 tons (+4000), and the social inventory was 1.03 million tons (-5000) [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5330 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5398 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan expansion. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6300 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease; the basis was 50 yuan/ton, a 79 - yuan weakening. The BZN spread was 89.5 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 497.7 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan reduction. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 179,300 tons, a 13,700 - ton decrease. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.09%, a 0.68% decrease; the PS operating rate was 52.00%, a 1.80% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 62.24%, a 0.27% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 72.10%, a 0.70% decrease [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6805 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.3%, a 0.73% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a 74,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a 300 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.37% decrease. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan expansion [18]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6471 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6555 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 84 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 78.55%, a 0.07% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a 4800 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 64,600 tons, a 700 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a 0.24% increase. The LL - PP spread was 334 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 170 yuan, at 6820 yuan, and PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. After conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 73 yuan (-92), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. In terms of devices, Wushi Petrochemical in China restarted, Fujia Dahua was restarting, overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG and Saudi Arabia's Satorp were under maintenance, and Taiwan's FCFC device was restarting. The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load [24]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 88 yuan, at 4688 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton, at 4540 yuan, with a basis of - 80 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. As of October 31, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.207 million tons, a 6000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 17 yuan to 114 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 214 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 3924 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan, at 3972 yuan, with a basis of 74 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan (+11). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, a 3.8% decrease, among which the synthetic gas method was 71.9%, an 11.5% decrease; the ethylene - based load was 72.7%, a 0.7% increase. In terms of synthetic gas devices, Yulin Chemical and Tianye reduced their loads, Sinochem and Yankuang were under maintenance, and Jianyuan and Tongliao Jinmei were restarting. In terms of petrochemicals, there were few device changes. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The import arrival forecast was 189,000 tons, and the East China departure on November 5 was 17,000 tons. The port inventory was 562,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 837 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but currently, it is advisable to wait and see as the market tests OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, the port price has dropped rapidly, and the inventory remains high and difficult to deplete. With supply increasing and demand weakening, if the high - inventory issue persists, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and see as chasing short after the sharp decline is not cost - effective and there is no driving force for long positions [3]. - For urea, supply has returned and compound fertilizer production has increased. Although downstream demand has followed up and pre - orders have slightly risen, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the price downside is also restricted. It is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, the price seems to have stabilized. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [11]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, but supply is high with many new devices to be commissioned. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, so it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Although the supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling periodically [17]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The spot price is stable, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. With high inventory and a large number of warehouse receipts, the cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance operations and low processing fees. PX inventory is difficult to deplete, and PXN is expected to be under pressure in November. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there may be inventory depletion, but the processing fee expansion is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry's supply is high, and imports are increasing. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to short on rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 458.90 yuan/barrel, high - sulfur fuel oil at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil at 3255.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, test OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Taicang price dropped by 35 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained stable, and Lunan dropped by 5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 28 yuan to 2180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 25 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 80 [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory, supply - demand imbalance [3]. Urea - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Shandong spot price dropped by 10 yuan, Henan remained unchanged, and Hubei dropped by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 2 yuan to 1625 yuan, with a basis of - 57 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 78 [5]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - term long opportunities on dips as the supply - demand is relatively loose but the price downside is limited [7]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber price has returned to the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. As of October 30, 2025, the full - steel tire operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 1% [7][9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit, partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PVC01 contract dropped by 65 yuan to 4701 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis was - 91 yuan, up 15 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 292 yuan, down 8 yuan. The overall operating rate was 78.3%, up 1.7%. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, up 0.4 tons, and social inventory was 103 tons, down 0.5 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term due to high supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the spot price of pure benzene dropped by 144 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton, and the futures price also dropped. The spot price of styrene dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, and the futures price dropped by 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene was 66.72%, down 2.53%. The Jiangsu port inventory of styrene decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling periodically as the port inventory decreases significantly [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polyethylene dropped by 69 yuan/ton to 6899 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7010 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, down 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polypropylene dropped by 61 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6640 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, up 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons [21][22]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market, and it is in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory [23]. PX - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PX01 contract rose by 30 yuan to 6618 yuan, and the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 820 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, up 1.1%, and the Asian load was 78.1%, down 0.4%. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8% [23]. - **Strategy**: PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see as there is no driving force and the valuation is at a neutral level [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PTA01 contract rose by 16 yuan to 4586 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 4510 yuan. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8%, and the downstream load was 91.7%, up 0.3%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [25]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term as the supply maintenance is expected to increase and there may be inventory depletion but limited processing fee expansion [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the EG01 contract dropped by 14 yuan to 4018 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 41 yuan to 4106 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.2%, up 2.9%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 52.3 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies as the supply is high, imports are increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. The fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [6]. - For methanol, supply pressure is increasing, the market is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3]. - Regarding urea, it is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic situation is one of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, although there is currently a lack of upward drivers, the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and there is support at the lower end of the valuation. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the peak season [23]. - For PTA, the supply has shifted from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the demand side is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess, and there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium - term [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.69%, at 493.20 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oils, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.04%, at 2840.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 30.00 yuan/ton, or 0.85%, at 3512.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57%; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 132 [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic production has further increased, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Import arrivals have increased, and port inventories have accumulated to a high level [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of port MTO has continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [3]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract fell 32 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of - 14. The futures price broke through the support level on Wednesday, while the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [5]. - **Supply**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, domestic production has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, enterprise profits are still at a medium - low level [5]. - **Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventories have risen rapidly. Currently, demand is mainly concentrated in exports [5]. - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level compared to the same period last year [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [8]. - **Factor Analysis**: Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has increased, which may cause the rubber price to rise. Bulls believe that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may limit rubber production growth, the seasonal pattern usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected [8][9]. - **Industry Data**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, 1.76 percentage points lower than the previous week and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. All - steel tire exports were good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories was slow to consume. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5% from the previous month. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. As of August 31, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 47.34 (- 0.36) million tons [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14880 (+ 30) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+ 0) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1840 (+ 5) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9400 (+ 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11650 (0) yuan [12]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 198 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The cost side remained stable, with the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke at 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene at 840 (0) US dollars/ton. The spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 77.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, and the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% [15]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 31.2 million tons (+ 0.6), and social inventory was 89.6 million tons (+ 4.4) [15]. - **Strategy**: In the domestic situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook and poor fundamentals, it is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [17]. - **Factor Analysis**: Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The production of pure benzene has been fluctuating at a moderate level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and styrene production has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been rising [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of styrene was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7040 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a weakening of 156 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 344.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton; the upstream operating rate was 78.1%, a decrease of 0.40%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.65 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 43.84%, an increase of 0.24%; the operating rate of PS was 59.90%, an increase of 2.40%, the operating rate of EPS was 58.35%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.80%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Factor Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory has decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and the procurement of raw materials for agricultural films has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.08 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The LL1 - 5 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 1 yuan/ton [20]. - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [21]. - **Factor Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 6954 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 11 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 55 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.30 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons, and the port inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The LL - PP spread was 293 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 16 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. 3.8 Polyester 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 24 yuan to 6810 yuan, the PX CFR price fell 3 US dollars to 843 US dollars, the basis was 99 yuan (+ 1) after conversion at the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 yuan (- 4) [23]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%, and the operating rate in Asia was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. There were few changes in domestic plants [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. Some PTA plants had maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, while others were in the process of restarting or commissioning [23]. - **Import**: In August, South Korea exported 37.6 million tons of PX to China, an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to the same period last year [23]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory was 389.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 246 US dollars (- 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 94 US dollars (- 3) [23]. - **，**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA plants, with the overall operating rate at a low level. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory levels, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, providing support for the valuation at the lower end. However, due to the lack of upward drivers currently and the reduction in the amount of unexpected PTA maintenance compared to previous expectations, the PXN has limited upward momentum. The valuation is currently at a moderate level, and the terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental - driven logic, and the volatility of the fuel oil market has decreased significantly. Both high - sulfur (FU) and low - sulfur (LU) fuel oil are in a narrow - range oscillation state [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from power generation terminals may decline year - on - year due to OPEC's production increase. However, after the market structure adjustment, it will gain new support [2]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term supply pressure is limited, but in the medium term, the market share will be gradually replaced by the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry. The market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3]. - The current market driving force of low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil, and the structural contradiction still exists. The high - low sulfur price difference does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,987 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.47% at 3,619 yuan/ton [1]. - With the easing of the Middle - East situation, the oil premium caused by geopolitical conflicts has rapidly declined, driving down the energy sector. The market is now fundamentally driven, and the volatility has decreased [1]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - The spread structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining, indicating sufficient supply and lack of positive drivers [2]. - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating from 414,000 barrels per day from May to July. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation terminals may decline year - on - year [2]. - The crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil may need further adjustment to attract incremental demand. The increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial to the recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil import demand [2]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In the short term, the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the market structure is relatively strong. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region is low, and domestic production is at a low level. The significant increase in bunker sales in May in Singapore, Zhoushan, and Shanghai supports the market [3]. - In the medium term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil. After the end of the domestic refinery maintenance season, domestic production is expected to increase [3]. Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [4]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [4]. - Cross - period: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [4]. - Spot - futures: None [4]. - Options: None [4].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices reaching as high as $76 per barrel before experiencing a sharp decline to $70.45 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices experienced a peak of $76 per barrel, followed by a drop to $70.45 per barrel, reflecting a daily decline of 3.5% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the price of high-sulfur fuel oil is closely tied to crude oil prices, with a notable increase of 3.38% to 3276 yuan per ton [1][4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that if regional conflicts escalate, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs holds a contrary view, expecting prices to drop to $55 per barrel by Q4 2025 [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with Israel conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting retaliatory actions from Iran [2]. - Turkish President Erdogan emphasized the need for diplomatic solutions to the escalating violence, which poses risks to regional security [2]. - Analysts indicate that ongoing tensions in the Middle East will likely keep oil prices elevated due to supply risks [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The Middle East accounts for approximately one-third of global high-sulfur fuel oil exports, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts [5]. - Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil shipments have decreased significantly due to U.S. sanctions, with May shipments reported at 900,000 tons, down 100,000 tons from the previous month [5]. - Russian high-sulfur fuel oil exports also faced a decline, with May shipments estimated at 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous month [5]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand Trends - Summer is a peak demand season for high-sulfur fuel oil, particularly in regions like the Middle East and South Asia, with Saudi Arabia's imports expected to rise [6]. - Egypt has increased its demand for high-sulfur fuel oil due to natural gas shortages, with June imports projected at 650,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month [6]. - The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil may continue to grow, although OPEC+ production increases could impact this trend [6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The volatility in international oil prices is expected to continue, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [7]. - Analysts recommend market participants to be cautious and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [7]. - If Brent crude oil prices exceed $80 per barrel, high-sulfur fuel oil prices could rise above $510 per ton [8].