一转眼，2025年已进入尾声。 这一年，中国创新药行业终于卸下了"寒冬"的枷锁——对外BD总额再创新高，港股医药IPO热度高涨， 创新药年内获批上市数量实现增长，一系列数据勾勒出近5年最强劲的复苏曲线。 但喧嚣之下，行业仍笼罩着一些关键谜团： 创新药行情后续会怎么走？医药IPO热潮已走向尾声吗？下一个BD重磅药物将出自哪个赛道？那些曾经 吊足市场胃口的预告式BD合作何时能落地？ …… 这些疑问的答案，将决定2026年创新药行业是"全面回暖"还是"结构性分化"，更将重塑未来3-5年的产 业格局。 这一切，留待2026年来揭晓。 01 创新药行情会怎么走？ 2025年的创新药行情波澜激荡，却在年末显露后劲不足的疲态。 从底层逻辑来看，当下的创新药行业已具备持续向上的根基，背后是实打实的硬支撑。 其一，政策面持续向好。从顶层设计的铺陈，到医保谈判、商保落地的衔接执行，全链条推进节奏都在 加快。 其二，企业基本面稳步抬升。一款又一款创新药密集获批，正式迈入商业化兑现阶段。 当然，上述积极态势，也无法掩盖部分创新药企估值高企、市场预期已拉满的现实，其高估值最终仍需 依靠后续业绩来消化。 相比于行情，业内对IPO的关注度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haina Pharmaceutical is attempting to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after two previous failed attempts, facing significant financial challenges including declining revenue and profits, negative cash flow, and high accounts receivable [1][2]. Financial Performance - Haina Pharmaceutical's revenue grew from 265 million RMB in 2022 to 425 million RMB in 2024, but the growth rate slowed significantly from 54.74% in 2023 to 3.65% in 2024 [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 16.97% year-on-year decline in revenue to 178 million RMB and a 24% drop in net profit to 22.08 million RMB [2]. - The gross profit margin decreased from 60.1% in 2022 to 47.1% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 52.1% in the first half of 2025, still below historical highs [2]. Business Model and Market Challenges - Haina Pharmaceutical operates under a dual model of "CXO services + MAH transfer," but has faced significant revenue declines in drug technology transfer and proprietary drug sales, with revenues dropping from 127 million RMB in 2023 to 51.98 million RMB in 2024 [2][4]. - The competitive landscape in the CXO sector is intensifying, with Haina's core CXO service revenue decreasing by 26% year-on-year to 132 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [5]. Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow Issues - The company's trade receivables surged from 44.68 million RMB at the end of 2022 to 176 million RMB by June 2025, indicating a nearly threefold increase [5]. - The cash flow from operating activities has been negative, with net outflows of 34.57 million RMB in 2024 and 42.45 million RMB in the first half of 2025, leading to a 67.19% decline in cash and cash equivalents from the end of 2023 [6]. Capital Market Attempts - Haina Pharmaceutical has made three attempts to enter the capital market within three years, with the latest being a submission to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after a failed IPO on the A-share market and a terminated acquisition deal with Chengdu Xian Dao [7][8]. - Prior to the IPO, the company had received multiple rounds of financing, with a D-round in August 2022 raising 100 million RMB at a post-money valuation of 1.58 billion RMB, but these rounds included performance-based clauses [8]. Investor Sentiment - Some early investors have chosen to exit before the IPO, indicating cautious sentiment regarding the company's prospects, with a total of 5.76% of shares transferred by certain investors in July and August 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surge in IPO applications from pharmaceutical companies in Hong Kong, highlighting the competitive landscape and the challenges faced by these companies in securing investors amid a crowded market [3][5][10]. Group 1: IPO Market Dynamics - As of November 14, 2023, 23 healthcare companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong stock market this year, compared to only 8 in the same period last year [3]. - Over 40 healthcare companies have applied for IPOs in Hong Kong this year, with 8 applications submitted in just the first half of November [3]. - The increase in IPO applications has led to heightened competition among companies to attract suitable investors, resulting in a more complex negotiation landscape between companies and institutional investors [3][5]. Group 2: Case Study of Baillie Gifford - Baillie Gifford's planned global offering was delayed due to market conditions, with reports suggesting that investor demand did not meet expectations [4][5]. - The company aimed to attract long-term value investors rather than those focused on short-term price fluctuations, indicating a strategic approach to its IPO [5][6]. - The IPO process involves cornerstone placements, book-building, and public offerings, with cornerstone investors playing a crucial role in validating the company's value [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant stock price increases this year, leading investors to focus on new IPOs rather than existing stocks [7]. - The introduction of new IPO pricing mechanisms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has increased the participation of cornerstone investors in pharmaceutical IPOs [9]. - Despite a recent cooling in the secondary market, the enthusiasm for IPO applications remains strong, with expectations of multiple companies going public in the first quarter of the following year [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Certain sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, such as siRNA and ADC drugs, are attracting more attention from investors, indicating a trend towards specialized investment opportunities [11]. - The competition among major pharmaceutical companies for acquisitions, particularly in the GLP-1 drug space, has heightened interest in related IPOs [11]. - The article notes that while many IPOs are being pursued, the quality of the offerings and their pricing will be critical in attracting investor interest [13].

Core Viewpoint - Weijian International Holdings Group Limited (Weijian Pharmaceutical) is seeking to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing strong performance but facing challenges in its IPO journey. Group 1: Company Overview - Established in 2011, Weijian Pharmaceutical is a leading Chinese pharmaceutical company focused on the treatment of kidney and blood diseases, with a comprehensive capability in drug development, production, and commercialization [1]. - The company has developed a diverse product portfolio, covering six kidney drugs, making it the Chinese pharmaceutical company with the highest number of commercialized original drugs for kidney diseases [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 was RMB 724 million, RMB 887 million, RMB 902 million, and RMB 797 million, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB -92.8 million, RMB -17 million, RMB 8.57 million, and RMB 2.40 million [1][2]. - The total loss over three and a half years amounted to RMB 77.19 million [1]. Group 3: Customer Concentration - The company relies heavily on a few major clients, with total revenue from the top five clients for the years ending December 31, 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 being RMB 435 million, RMB 487 million, RMB 539 million, and RMB 487 million, respectively, accounting for 60.2%, 54.8%, 59.8%, and 61.1% of total revenue [3][4]. Group 4: Market Competition - The company faces increasing market competition, particularly with the drug Sinacalcet, which has seen its market share decline from 35% in 2019 to 19.7% in 2024 due to generic drug competition [5]. - The company anticipates price reductions of 30%-50% for two of its products during the 2024 national medical insurance directory adjustment, which could further impact gross margins [5]. Group 5: Research and Development - The company has a low R&D investment ratio, with expenditures of RMB 17.27 million, RMB 19.36 million, and RMB 11.86 million for the years 2022-2024, representing less than 2% of revenue, which is below the industry average [7]. Group 6: Supply Chain Risks - The company faces supply chain risks, with 82% of procurement in the first half of 2025 coming from the top five suppliers, and the largest supplier accounting for 41.9% of total procurement [8].