不过，CXO行业的寒意仍未完全消散，报告期内，泰格医药营收、净利双降；益诺思、百诚医药等个股净利降幅明显。如何抓住复苏机遇，迎来长期稳定 的发展，将是CXO企业需要面对的重要课题。 CXO行业（医药研发生产外包服务）作为医药行业的"卖水人"，在创新药研发浪潮中曾享受过高速增长红利。然而，由于前几年全球融资环境趋紧和创新药 研发投入波动，行业一度遭遇寒流。不过，随着创新药资产价值持续回归，CXO行业正加速回暖。 东方财富Choice数据显示，今年上半年，28家A股CXO企业中，有16家企业净利出现同比增长，而在上年同期，净利增长的企业仅有7家。资本市场上， CXO个股的股价同样迎来回暖。板块28只个股年内股价均出现上涨，南模生物、美迪西、药明康德等个股已实现翻倍。 | ○查找 | | | | | | | ▼ 点击查看7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | イ | 所属行业名称 [行业标准]申万行业 ... [行业类别]3级 | 归属于母公司股东 ... [报告期]今年二季/.. [报告类型]合并报表 | ...

今天，A股三大指数集体上涨，深证成指与创业板指数再创年内新高。截至收盘，上证指数、深证 成指分别上涨0.33%、0.64%，创业板指数上涨1.86%。 沪深两市成交额达到18032亿元，较昨日放量609亿元。整个市场有2240只个股上涨，3002只个股下 跌，个股涨跌幅的中位数为下跌0.2%。 大盘方面，在量能充沛的情况下，走势强势。盘中券商股的大幅回落，也没有将指数拉下来多少。 未来两天，市场将迎来重要的变盘时间窗口。创业板指数今天迎来了7月9日以来的最大涨幅，有一 种加速的味道，且上方即将面临去年11月高点附近的压力。微盘股指数、国证2000指数等早已"涨上了 天"。 本轮水牛行情，能否演化为持续时间更久的全面牛市，需要观察后续基本面（即使是结构性的）好 转情况。如果以今年6月作为本轮市场从存量转为增量的起点，那么目前水牛行情才持续不到2个月，并 且未来可以期待会有增量政策，进一步推动基本面预期改善。 中信建投则指出，当前市场情绪高涨，增量资金有望加速流入。一是大盘突破3600点，情绪指数进 入亢奋区；二是证监会表态"全力巩固市场回稳向好态势"继续力挺市场；三是赚钱效应下融资买入，新 基金发行指标上行。这 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **New Consumption Trends**: The consumer spending time has decreased due to increased working hours, leading to lower consumption of discretionary goods and services. Service consumption is particularly constrained by time limitations. [1][2][3] - **Economic Transition**: China's economy is transitioning from goods to services, supported by rising GDP per capita, urbanization, and aging population trends. This shift indicates strong potential for service consumption growth. [1][2][3] - **A-Share Market Outlook**: The A-share market is entering a profit cycle turning point, with a bullish outlook maintained. The market atmosphere shows characteristics of a bull market, particularly in the tech sector. [1][5] Key Investment Opportunities - **Internet Media Sector**: Strong growth potential in experiential products like trendy toys and music events, with specific recommendations for Pop Mart and NetEase Cloud Music. Pop Mart's revenue is expected to grow by over 200% in the first half of 2025. [1][6] - **AI Applications**: Global commercialization of AI is accelerating, with Chinese companies focusing on emotional consumption. Companies like Meitu and Kuaishou are highlighted for their rapid revenue growth in AI applications. [2][9][10] - **Gaming Industry**: The gaming sector shows a solid fundamental outlook, with recommendations for companies like Giant Network and Huatuo Technology, which are expected to benefit from overseas opportunities and innovations in AI gaming. [2][11] Sector-Specific Insights - **Pharmaceuticals**: The innovative drug sector and its supply chain (CXO) are performing well, with early orders showing improvement. BD transactions are at record highs, indicating a recovery in the innovative drug industry. [2][15][18] - **Digital Music Market**: The domestic digital music market is characterized by a young user base and strong payment habits, with NetEase Cloud Music expected to perform well. [8] - **Film Industry**: The film sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with strong expectations for the summer release schedule. Wanda's projected net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 500 to 560 million yuan. [14] Financial Performance Indicators - **A-Share Earnings Forecast**: As of July 15, 2025, approximately 1,500 listed companies have disclosed earnings forecasts, with 43% expecting profits and 43% anticipating losses. This indicates a rising risk of losses in the market. [4][5] - **North America and Europe Revenue Growth**: North America is experiencing the fastest revenue growth, with improvements in profit margins attributed to higher proportions of high-margin products and cost optimization. [7] Additional Considerations - **Consumer Behavior Changes**: The trend towards smaller family units and declining birth rates is expected to increase demand for entertainment and luxury services. [3] - **Market Dynamics**: The impact of government policies aimed at increasing leisure time is anticipated to benefit suppressed service consumption. [3] - **Investment Strategy**: The focus remains on sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a preference for Hong Kong stocks over A-shares due to better dividend yields and growth potential. [5][21]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market sentiment has improved, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully breaking through the 3500-point mark, driven by strong performances in the financial and real estate sectors [1] - Despite a pullback on Friday, the market remains in a bullish trend, with an upward shift in the price center, indicating a favorable environment for profit-making as long as capital remains active [1] - The recent pause in U.S. tariffs has not caused significant concern in the market, contributing to a stable upward movement in A-shares [1] Group 2: Bull Market Sentiment - The market has begun to reflect a "bull market atmosphere," with the Shanghai Composite Index's breakthrough enhancing risk appetite and increasing trading activity [2] - High-beta assets, particularly in the non-bank financial sector, have shown leading performance, indicating a direct manifestation of the bullish sentiment [2] Group 3: Future Market Conditions - Necessary conditions for a bull market starting in Q4 2025 are accumulating, with optimistic expectations for supply-demand improvements in 2026 [3] - The low base and high growth expected in the 2025 Q4 earnings reports will create favorable conditions for a preemptive rally [3] - However, Q3 2025 may not be a definitive window for the bull market, as domestic economic performance is expected to weaken compared to the first half of the year [3] Group 4: Sector Performance Expectations - Key sectors expected to perform well in Q2 earnings include upstream industrial metals, wind power, military sectors, and non-bank financials [4] - The banking sector is viewed positively due to expected improvements in liability costs, stable asset returns, and maintained asset quality [5] Group 5: Renewable Energy and Resource Prices - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to see a resurgence, particularly for companies transitioning to energy storage and those with healthy balance sheets [6] - Resource prices have rebounded since June, with significant increases in the new energy supply chain, black series, and construction materials [7][8] Group 6: International Trade and Strategic Opportunities - The trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to raise transshipment costs, potentially impacting Chinese transshipment enterprises [10] - Southeast Asia is emerging as a growth area for the gold and jewelry industry, with Chinese brands poised to capitalize on this opportunity [12]

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has experienced a strong rebound in 2023 after undergoing significant adjustments in previous years, driven by structural market trends [1] - Short-term impacts from ongoing medical anti-corruption efforts are stabilizing, with companies adapting well and maintaining steady operational performance [1] - By 2025, commercial insurance is expected to reach a new level, benefiting the innovative drug and device industries [1] Group 2 - Key investment focuses include: 1) Innovative drugs with true clinical value and potential for First-in-Class (FIC) and Best-in-Class (BIC) recognition, particularly from biotech companies acknowledged by multinational corporations [2] - AI in healthcare is anticipated to see strong market demand growth as the cost of deploying AI models decreases, allowing for more efficient and economical implementations [2] - The innovative drug supply chain, including CXO and life sciences services, is expected to experience a recovery in order growth as global investment and financing amounts increase [2] - Medical devices and equipment are set to benefit from a recovery in bidding data and ongoing fiscal support, with a focus on domestic alternatives and high-end manufacturing for international markets [2]

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by strong domestic and foreign demand, with the innovative drug segment performing particularly well. The recovery of medical insurance policies and limited impact from Sino-US trade tensions have contributed to this positive trend. Institutional holdings have notably increased [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Innovative Drugs**: The innovative drug sector is recommended for overweight allocation due to strong demand and supply dynamics. Companies in this segment have shown better-than-expected performance, supported by favorable policy changes [1][10]. - **Medical Devices**: The electrophysiology and orthopedic consumables sectors are highlighted as areas of strong performance. Orthopedic consumables benefit from a low base and domestic substitution, while electrophysiology maintains stable growth [1][6]. - **CXO Sector**: The CXO sector has shown robust performance, with companies like Kangde Biological and LianTuo Biological reporting impressive results. The first quarter results indicate a strong growth momentum, making this sector a viable investment option [1][7]. - **Consumer Healthcare**: Overall performance in consumer healthcare is lukewarm, but leading companies like Aier Eye Hospital and JD Health have exceeded expectations, demonstrating their ability to gain market share amid a consumption downturn [1][8]. - **Upstream Supply Chain**: While overall performance in the upstream supply chain is not as strong as in innovative drugs, companies like Baipusais and Nawei Technology have shown significant competitive advantages, increasing their market share during the industry downturn [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Performance in April 2025**: The pharmaceutical sector had a lackluster performance in April, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% and the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index down 2.1%. Notable gainers included Yipin Hong and Yong'an Pharmaceutical, both up 56% [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: The strategy suggests overweighting innovative drugs and gradually increasing allocation to reasonably valued CXO companies. Individual stock selection is recommended for consumer and upstream supply chain investments [1][10][12]. - **Monthly Portfolio Changes**: The May 2025 portfolio includes large-cap pharmaceutical stocks such as Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and BeiDa Pharmaceutical, reflecting positive changes in their fundamentals and strong R&D capabilities [2][13]. - **Rationale for Large-Cap Stocks**: The focus has shifted to larger companies due to their improved fundamentals and strong R&D capabilities, as smaller companies have already seen significant price increases [14]. - **Specific Company Recommendations**: - **Heng Rui Pharmaceutical**: Leading in R&D among traditional large enterprises, with over 100 projects in development [15]. - **Hua Dong Pharmaceutical**: Valued at approximately 16 times earnings, with a promising transition and sales growth expected [16]. - **BeiDa Pharmaceutical**: Expected to adopt more collaborative R&D approaches, making it a valuable investment at current valuations [17]. - **Xinda**: Anticipated revenue growth from 1.4 billion to 2.4 billion, with a favorable outlook due to policy improvements [18]. - **Kelong Biotechnology**: Notable performance in clinical trials, making it a strong candidate for investment [19]. - **Xinda**: Projected revenue of 40 billion in Q1, with a strong annual forecast [20]. - **Rongchang Biological**: Long-term tracking with good overseas positioning [21]. - **CXO Companies**: Notable mentions include WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, recognized for their solid fundamentals [22].

2025 年 05 月 05 日 业绩验证的关键点 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/04/28-25/05/05) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 - ⚫ 一、2024 年报和 2025 一季报验证收官，我们总结 4 个业绩验证的关键点： ⚫ 1. 全 A 两非盈利相对于正常季节性 24Q4 偏弱，25Q1 偏强。25Q1 全 A 两非盈利额外 恢复程度处于历史高值。全 A 两非归母净利润同比增速，24Q4 为-55%大幅低于预期， 25Q1 为 6.3%高于预期。24Q4 和 25Q1，全 A 两非营收同比与名义 GDP 同比变化 ...

投资建议：最新关税政策指引下出口链压力大幅缓解，建议关注：（1）CXO产业链，如药明康德、药 明生物、凯莱英、康龙化成、九洲药业等；（2）API 及仿制药制剂：华海药业、普洛药业、健友股 份、司太立、天宇股份、美诺华等；（3）耗材出口，如维力医疗、英科医疗、振德医疗、蓝帆医疗、 海泰新光、美好医疗、三星医疗等；（4）医疗设备出口：迈瑞医疗、联影医疗、万东医疗、澳华内 镜、开立医疗等。 风险提示：关税政策反复变化风险、海外经济衰退风险、其他系统性风险等。 本次关税政策悄然变化，豁免适用所有"对等关税"国家。本次美国关税政策的悄然变化是通过美国海关 与边境保护局出台的更新税则开始，被视为缓解中美贸易摩擦的举措。根据《货运系统讯息服务》 （CSMS #64724565），凡产品正确归类于总统备忘录中所列《美国统一关税表》（HTSUS）号别及子 号别者，可适用对等关税排除措施，这些产品将不再被依据第14257 号行政命令（2025 年4 月2 日公 布）所施行的额外国别税率，改为统一适用10%的标准附加关税。适用时间为从2025 年4 月5 日美国东 部夏令时凌晨00:01 后进入消费或从仓库提取的商品，进口商需在货 ...

青侨阳光医药投资 - 行业思考 1 标准化程度和医生依赖度的差异， 是"药VS械VS院"业务不同特性的重要来源 "医药"里的"医"主要指医疗器械和医疗机构，"药"主要指中药、化药、生物药等药品。从这点来说，"药品、 器械、医院等医疗机构"是医药行业最核心3大业务类别。除此之外的医药细分，多数可以看成是这3类业务的 配套产业，比如原料药、CRO、CMO等可以看成是药品的配套，分销商、药店等可以看成是药品和器械的配 套，三方诊断、医疗信息化等可以看成是医疗机构的配套。 从欧美日等发达国家过去几十年的历史经验看，在医药行业相对成熟的主流经济体中，"药"的资本回报率最为 可观，"械"的资本回报率也相当优秀，但"院"的资本回报率比较糟糕。 比如有很多人统计过美股不同行业的历史ROIC，其中： 这与我们的直觉感受是一致的，虽然药品和器械占整个医药行业总盘子不到20%，但我们闭着眼睛也能数出几 十个声名显赫、历史回报强劲的来自美国、欧洲、日本的制药企业和医疗器械企业；但对于占行业总盘子超 60%的医疗服务业务，著名的海外上市医院集团我们可能一只手的指头都数不完。 为什么会这样？一个重要原因是这 三类业务在标准化程度和医生依 ...