作者：老萝卜头 2025年的A股生物医药板块，有的净利润翻30倍一路狂飙，有的却从行业巅峰摔进亏损泥潭，细分赛道同样有人吃肉有人喝西北风。 政策压顶、市场洗牌、创新突围，多重变量搅局下，生物医药行业的变革早就不是说说而已，而是真刀真枪的淘汰赛！ 01 盈亏对半开，要么赢要么凉，鲜有中间地带 2025年的生物医药行业彻底告别了"大家一起喝汤"的温柔时代，迎来了"非赢即亏"的残酷格局。 Wind数据显示，截至2月2日，已发布业绩预告的275家医药上市公司中，138家预盈，137家预亏，几乎平分秋色。 但赚钱的企业是真的赚麻了。 药明康德直接稳坐盈利王宝座，预计归母净利润达191.51亿元，直接甩开同行一大截。三生国健、吉林敖东、九安医疗、艾力斯紧随其后，预计净利润均突 破20亿元，稳居第一梯队。 增幅方面，赛诺医疗成为年度"预增王"，预计2025年归母净利润同比增幅高达2767%至3233%。 而亏损的企业亏得更是触目惊心。 智飞生物直接爆出预亏超百亿，预计亏损106.98亿元至137.26亿元，同比下滑630%至780%，这是这家疫苗巨头上市以来的首次年度亏损，昔日风光彻底不 再。 一边是百亿盈利的狂欢，一边是 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告 2026 年 2 月 25 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410524050001 | 投资评级： | 增持（维持） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 当前价格: | | 3.38元 | | 目标价格: | | 3.64元 | | 目标期限: | 6 | 个月 | 市场数据 | 总股本(百万股) | 2232.03 | | --- | --- | | A 股股本(百万股) | 2232.03 | | B/H 股股本(百万股) | -/- | | A 股流通比例(%) | 98.46 | | 12 个月最高/最低(元) | 4.08/2.12 | | 第一大股东 | 沈臻宇 | | 第一大股东持股比例(%) | 4.92 | | 上证综指/沪深 300 | 4117.41/4707.54 | % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3.81 2.98 17.42 绝对收益 -3.70 8.68 35.74 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-黑龙江新质生产力公司深度 报告（首次覆盖)-誉衡药业-002437.SZ： ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government is taking action against false information related to centralized drug procurement, emphasizing the importance of this policy for public health and urging the public to view it rationally and scientifically [1][2][3] Group 1: Government Actions - The Central Cyberspace Administration and the National Medical Insurance Administration are actively addressing false information regarding centralized drug procurement, taking legal action against accounts that spread misinformation [1] - The government is encouraging the public to avoid rumors and to create a clearer online environment regarding drug procurement [1] Group 2: Impact of Drug Procurement Policy - The centralized drug procurement policy has significantly reduced the prices of essential medical supplies, bringing costs down from thousands to hundreds, thereby alleviating the financial burden on patients [1] - The policy has gained public support, as evidenced by positive reactions from the community [1] Group 3: Misinformation from Self-Media - Some self-media accounts are spreading false narratives about the quality of procured drugs and medical supplies, claiming issues without evidence [2] - These accounts are also manipulating unrelated quality issues of non-procured products to create confusion and fear among the public [2] Group 4: Consequences of Misinformation - The spread of misinformation can undermine public trust in quality and affordable procured drugs, potentially leading patients to choose more expensive alternatives, thus reversing the benefits of the procurement policy [3] - The actions of self-media can create unnecessary divisions between patients and the healthcare policy, as well as between imported and domestic drugs, turning public health issues into emotional and interest-based conflicts [3] Group 5: Call for Action - There is a need for strict measures against unethical self-media practices, with a call for enhanced content review responsibilities from media platforms and increased media literacy among the public to combat misinformation [3]

2026.02. 02 本文字数：2472，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 林志吟 医药企业近日陆续披露年报预告，据东方财富Choice数据统计，截至目前，A股医药生物板块有137家企业预告2025年亏损，其中首亏、增亏的企业数量 占比一半以上；而预计去年归属于母公司的净利润亏损最高的，达到137亿元。 药企亏损的背后，受制于多方面因素，其中产品价格下跌成为高频词。 亏损最高的超百亿 具体看这137家预告亏损的医药生物企业，涵盖了原料药、化学制剂、中药、疫苗、医药流通、体外诊断、医疗耗材、医疗研发外包、医疗设备等细分 领域，从预告归属于母公司的净利润下限指标看，亏损最大的是智飞生物（300122.SZ），去年业绩首亏，公司预计归属于母公司的净利润亏损最高可 达到137.26亿元；紧接着是珍宝岛（603567.SH），预计去年归属于母公司的净利润亏损最高可达到11.73亿元；之后是百利天恒（688506.SH），预计 去年归属于母公司的净利润亏损最高可达到11亿元。 另外，蓝帆医疗（002382.SZ）、神州细胞（688520.SH）、润达医疗（603108.SH）、广济药业（000952.SZ）这四家 ...

医药企业近日陆续披露年报预告，据东方财富Choice数据统计，截至目前，A股医药生物板块有137家 企业预告2025年亏损，其中首亏、增亏的企业数量占比一半以上；而预计去年归属于母公司的净利润亏 损最高的，达到137亿元。 药企亏损的背后，受制于多方面因素，其中产品价格下跌成为高频词。 亏损最高的超百亿 具体看这137家预告亏损的医药生物企业，涵盖了原料药、化学制剂、中药、疫苗、医药流通、体外诊 断、医疗耗材、医疗研发外包、医疗设备等细分领域，从预告归属于母公司的净利润下限指标看，亏损 最大的是智飞生物（300122.SZ），去年业绩首亏，公司预计归属于母公司的净利润亏损最高可达到 137.26亿元；紧接着是珍宝岛（603567.SH），预计去年归属于母公司的净利润亏损最高可达到11.73亿 元；之后是百利天恒（688506.SH），预计去年归属于母公司的净利润亏损最高可达到11亿元。 另外，蓝帆医疗（002382.SZ）、神州细胞（688520.SH）、润达医疗（603108.SH）、广济药业 （000952.SZ）这四家企业预计去年归属于母公司的净利润亏损最高可超过5亿元。 A股医药生物板块企业的亏损，受 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is entering the latter stage of quality improvement and expansion in centralized procurement, with a focus on both pricing mechanisms and quality supervision [1] - The national centralized procurement has covered a total of 435 varieties, with the eleventh batch focusing on 55 clinically mature drugs, aiming to ensure clinical accessibility and standard consistency through institutional innovation [1] - As procurement rules continue to optimize and pricing mechanisms become more reasonable, leading domestic companies are expected to achieve market share growth and structural expansion through compliance and innovation capabilities [1] Group 2 - The medical insurance fund's revenue growth has turned positive year-on-year, with a projected increase of 2.92% in income and 0.51% in expenditure from January to November 2025, indicating stable overall fund operation [1] - Ongoing medical reforms are expected to advance from inpatient DRGs to outpatient APGs, with the construction of a multi-tiered payment system for innovative drugs in commercial insurance, shifting the focus of medical insurance management from "scale" to "value" [1] - The medical ETF (159828) tracks the CSI Medical Index (399989), which selects listed companies involved in medical devices, medical services, and medical information technology to reflect the overall performance of the medical theme-related securities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sales of cephalosporin antibiotics in China's public medical institutions are declining due to centralized procurement price reductions and "antibiotic restriction orders," with sales expected to drop to 39.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% [1][9]. Industry Overview - Cephalosporins are a class of semi-synthetic broad-spectrum β-lactam antibiotics, primarily used to treat various bacterial infections, categorized into five generations based on their antibacterial spectrum and stability against β-lactamase [2][3]. Development History - The development of the cephalosporin industry in China has evolved from technology introduction to independent innovation, characterized by four stages: exploratory initiation, rapid development, industrial upgrading, and transformation optimization, driven by policy support and market demand [4][5]. Industry Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, including guidelines for centralized procurement and price management, which create a favorable environment for the development of the cephalosporin sector [6]. Industry Chain - The cephalosporin industry chain includes upstream components such as chemical raw materials and pharmaceutical intermediates, midstream activities like research and production, and downstream channels including healthcare institutions and pharmacies [6][7]. Current Market Situation - The demand for cephalosporins remains rigid in clinical settings, but sales in public medical institutions are declining, with projected sales of 17.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1][9]. Competitive Landscape - The market for cephalosporins is undergoing significant changes, with the top 20 groups holding a market share of 66% in public medical institutions by mid-2025. Pfizer leads with a market share of 20.67%, followed by China National Pharmaceutical Group and Nanjing Youke [10]. Key Companies - Nanjing Youke Bio-Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. focuses on innovative drug development and has seen a significant increase in sales of its cephalosporin products, with a 192.22% rise in sales in 2025 [10][11]. - Chengdu Beite Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. specializes in high-quality drug development and has a diverse product portfolio, including over 200 formulations across various therapeutic areas [12]. Future Trends - The future of cephalosporin development will focus on combination formulations with enzyme inhibitors to address the growing issue of antibiotic resistance, alongside an increase in usage in community healthcare settings, particularly for cost-effective oral and basic injectable formulations [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, despite a recent decline in the index [2]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight decline of 0.2% in the recent week, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88% [3][5]. - The pharmaceutical index ranked 25th among 31 sub-industries, with a current valuation of 29.2 times earnings, placing it 10th among all primary industries [2][5]. - Key collaborations include: - JAB-23E73, a Pan-KRAS inhibitor developed by 加科思, has secured a partnership with AstraZeneca for exclusive rights outside China, with potential payments reaching up to $20.15 billion [11]. - 阳光诺和 signed a deal for the domestic rights of STC008, receiving an upfront payment of 50 million yuan and a total of 500 million yuan in milestone payments [12]. - 绿叶制药 granted exclusive commercialization rights for three long-acting antipsychotic products to 恩华药业, receiving a non-refundable fee of $20 million [12]. - The sixth batch of medical consumables procurement has been officially launched, indicating a trend of negative growth in the number of pharmacies across the country [13][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index decreased by 0.2%, while the broader market indices showed positive growth [3][5]. - Among the sub-sectors, raw materials increased by 2.0%, while other segments like chemical preparations and medical circulation saw declines [5]. Recent Key Events - The report highlights significant business development (BD) activities, including major licensing agreements and product approvals [11][12]. - The sixth batch of centralized procurement for medical consumables has been announced, with a focus on drug-coated balloon and urological intervention products [13]. - The number of pharmacies in China has been declining for four consecutive quarters, with a total of 68.6 million stores reported as of Q3 2025 [15]. Company Dynamics - Notable company activities include 一品红's transfer of shares in Arthrosi to support innovation [18]. - 诺和诺德's oral semaglutide has received FDA approval, marking a significant milestone in obesity treatment [18]. - Recent product approvals include 默克's drug for treating symptomatic giant cell tumors and core medical's heart assist devices [19]. IPO Dynamics - 瑞博生物's IPO application has passed the hearing stage, with a post-investment valuation of 5.02 billion yuan [21]. - 信诺维 has submitted its IPO application, focusing on unmet clinical needs and innovative drug development [24]. - Frontera's IPO application has been accepted, with a post-investment valuation of $528 million [27].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, with the overall investment rating reflecting a mixed performance in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index decreased by 0.2% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, ranking the pharmaceutical index 25th among 31 Shenwan sub-industries [2][3]. - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 29.2 times earnings, placing it 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [5]. - Recent collaborations in the industry include significant licensing agreements, such as the partnership between JAKOS and AstraZeneca for the Pan-KRAS inhibitor, which could yield up to $20.15 billion in potential payments [11]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the industry, including a decline in the number of retail pharmacies, which has seen a net reduction of over 8,800 stores in the last quarter alone [16]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance this week showed a decline of 0.2%, with various sub-sectors experiencing mixed results, such as raw materials (+2.0%) and hospitals (-2.8%) [2][5]. - The report notes that the pharmaceutical index's performance is lagging compared to other sectors, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [3][5]. Recent Developments - The sixth batch of national procurement for medical consumables has been officially launched, which may impact pricing and availability in the market [14]. - Several innovative drugs and medical devices have received approval for market entry, including Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide, marking a significant advancement in obesity treatment [19][21]. - The report also mentions the IPO applications of several companies, including Xinnowei and Frontera, indicating a trend of new entrants seeking capital in the pharmaceutical sector [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing consumer willingness to invest in health-related products, such as probiotics, is driving interest in companies like 科郦有限公司, which is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong [1] Company Overview - 科郦 is the exclusive distributor of妈咪爱 and 易坦静 in China's outpatient market and is recognized as the largest pediatric pharmaceutical marketing, promotion, and sales service provider in China [1][5] - The company has maintained a long-term partnership with 韩美集团 since 2007, relying heavily on them for product supply [5][13] - As of 2024, the company expects to generate approximately $282 million (about 1.98 billion RMB) in revenue with a gross margin exceeding 53% [1] Revenue Breakdown - During the reporting period from 2022 to the first half of 2025, over 86% of the company's revenue came from pharmaceutical marketing, promotion, and sales, while maternal and nutritional supplements accounted for about 7% [5][6] - The revenue from pharmaceutical marketing, promotion, and sales for 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 was approximately $322 million, $350 million, $282 million, and $143 million, respectively [15][16] Market Position - The company is positioned as the eighth largest pharmaceutical marketing and sales service provider in China, holding a market share of 1.8%, and is the largest in pediatric pharmaceutical marketing with a 15.9% market share [19] - The Chinese probiotics supplement market is projected to grow from 24.6 billion RMB in 2024 to 40 billion RMB by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.2% [17] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margins have shown an upward trend, increasing from 43.6% in 2022 to 56% in 2025, driven by reduced procurement costs and improved pricing negotiations with suppliers [17] - However, the company experienced a revenue decline in 2024 due to a post-pandemic market slowdown and strategic refocusing on core business areas [15][17] Competitive Landscape - The pharmaceutical distribution market in China is highly competitive, with major players including 华润医药, 上海医药, and 复星医药 [19] - The government has been expanding centralized procurement plans, which has led to price reductions and intensified competition, potentially impacting the company's pricing strategies and profit margins [19] Company Structure and Leadership - 科郦 was established in Hong Kong in 2009 and has a workforce of 1,014 employees, with a significant portion in sales and marketing [21][23] - The company is led by 林钟润, who holds a 76.2% stake, and 韩星俊, the CEO, who has extensive experience in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors [21][24] IPO Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will be used to expand the sales network and product portfolio, enhance production capacity, and improve brand value for its two main brands,妈咪爱 and COREE [24]