南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——化工板块情绪高，合成胶强势带动天胶抬升 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月26日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 受宏观情绪与外部地缘局势影响，近期能化板块表现偏强，橡胶整体资金参与度有所提升。尤其是合成 橡胶受原料丁二烯涨价支撑和供紧需稳预期影响而强势涨停，助推天然橡胶同步上涨。 沪胶RU目前国内停割，全乳胶维持去库，则以未来需求、去库预期以及估值定价主导，受到宏观情绪影 响较大。海外产区多处于低产季前冲刺上量阶段，目前天气扰动不大，割胶顺畅且冬储抢收积极，对原料有 所支撑。12月干胶进口大增带来库存高企，未来供应预期对价格带来 一定压制。下游节前备库，轮胎开工有 所回升，干胶库存、下游产品和终端库存压力仍存，现货交投情绪平淡。重卡与工程机械受新旧置换和对外 出口提振，但长期固定资产投资和房地产投资或维持下滑趋势，内需增长承压且出口不确定性仍存。 目前天然橡胶与顺丁橡胶价差回落至近一年内偏低位置，其中部分是对丁二烯成本上涨的计价，具有较 大波 ...

Core Insights - The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that 2025 is projected to be the third hottest year on record, with a global average temperature exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time in a three-year period from 2023 to 2025 [1][2] Group 1 - The global average temperature for 2025 is estimated at 14.97 degrees Celsius, only 0.01 degrees lower than 2023 and 0.13 degrees lower than the record set in 2024 [1] - The long-term global warming level is estimated to be approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with the past 11 years being the warmest on record [2] - In 2025, the global surface temperature is projected to be 1.47 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, while the value for 2024 was 1.6 degrees Celsius [2] Group 2 - The average annual temperature in Antarctica is expected to reach a record high in 2025, while the Arctic region will experience its second-highest average annual temperature on record [2] - In February 2025, the combined sea ice coverage in both polar regions is projected to drop to the lowest level observed since satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s [2] - The report attributes the unusually warm global temperatures over the past three years to multiple factors, including the accumulation of greenhouse gases, weakened natural carbon sinks, and elevated ocean surface temperatures linked to El Niño and other oceanic changes [2]

Core Insights - The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reports that 2025 is projected to be the third hottest year on record, with global average temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time in a three-year period from 2023 to 2025 [1][2] - The global average temperature for 2025 is estimated at 14.97 degrees Celsius, only 0.01 degrees lower than 2023 and 0.13 degrees lower than the record set in 2024 [1] - The report indicates that the past 11 years have been the warmest on record, with 2025's surface temperature 1.47 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, compared to 1.6 degrees Celsius in 2024 [1] Temperature Records - The report highlights that 2025 will see record average temperatures in Antarctica and the second highest average temperatures in the Arctic region [2] - In February 2025, the combined sea ice coverage in both polar regions is expected to drop to the lowest level since satellite observations began in the late 1970s [2] Contributing Factors - The report attributes the unusually warm global temperatures over the past three years to multiple factors, including the continuous accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and weakened natural carbon sinks [2] - Additionally, ocean surface temperatures have reached abnormally high levels, influenced by El Niño events and other oceanic changes exacerbated by climate change [2] - Other factors such as aerosols, low clouds, and atmospheric circulation fluctuations also impact temperature [2] Management Implications - Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, emphasizes the clear trend of rising temperatures and the need for better management of potential overheating and its impacts on social and natural systems [2]

Core Insights - The United Nations report highlights the severe drought challenges faced globally in 2023, exacerbated by climate change and resource pressures [1][2] - The report emphasizes the need for proactive resilience building and international cooperation to address drought issues [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Drought Impact - The report identifies that regions such as Africa, the Mediterranean, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are experiencing some of the most extensive and destructive droughts on record [1] - Over 90 million people in Eastern and Southern Africa are facing severe hunger threats due to drought conditions [1] - The Panama Canal is expected to see a significant reduction in daily traffic volume from October 2023 to January 2024 due to drastically lowered water levels, impacting global trade [1] - Record low water levels in the Amazon basin in 2023 and 2024 have led to massive fish deaths and affected drinking water and transportation for tens of thousands of people [1] Climate Change and El Niño - The report links the 2023-2024 El Niño event to intensified climate change effects, causing drought in key agricultural and ecological areas already under stress [1] Recommendations for Action - The report calls for countries to enhance drought prevention efforts, including the establishment of robust early warning systems, real-time monitoring of drought impacts, resilient infrastructure development, and deepened international cooperation [1][2] - It stresses that drought is not just a sector-specific issue and requires collaboration across various sectors and borders [2]