1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the uncertain Middle - East situation, international crude oil prices oscillate between 80 - 100. Vegetable oils follow the crude oil trend. Palm oil adjustment is almost in place, short positions can be closed, and new long positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate at high levels [1][2] - For double - meal products, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, which boosts US soybeans. In the short - term, the main contract of continuous meal should focus on the support at the 2900 yuan/ton mark. Near - month short positions of double - meal can gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - **Three Oils**: On March 25th, due to the US announcing armistice conditions, international crude oil was under pressure and declined. Vegetable oils were under pressure at high levels. Palm oil had a large decline, while soybean and rapeseed oils oscillated at high levels. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8550 yuan/ton, down 0.51% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 24,534 lots [1] - **Two Meals**: On March 25th, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, causing double - meal prices to decline under pressure. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 24,152 lots [2] 3.2重要资讯 - **Three Oils** - On Wednesday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures fell by more than 2%, and the May crude oil futures contract fell by $2.03, settling at $90.32 per barrel [1] - The market generally expects an announcement on the biofuel mandatory blending target on Friday [1] - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate [1] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggests that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel [1] - The US National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that La Nina is still ongoing, and it is expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, with El Nino likely to form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1] - The shipping survey agency SGS shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20th were 889,128 tons, a 61.0% increase compared to February 1 - 20th [1] - Due to the ongoing Middle - East war, supply concerns drive up crude oil prices. Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [2] - As of the weekend of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three domestic edible oils was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a 9.31% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Two Meals** - AgMarket.net predicts that the US soybean planting area in spring this year will reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast [2] - Patria AgroNegocios reports that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate has reached 65.79%, behind last year's 73.84% but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [3] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March will be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast, and the soybean meal exports will be 2.44 million tons, also lower than the previous forecast [3] - As of the weekend of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from last week [3] 3.3市场逻辑 - **Three Oils**: Externally, the Middle - East situation is uncertain, international crude oil prices oscillate at high levels, the US biodiesel policy is about to be implemented, and there are still many uncertainties internationally. Domestically, soybean oil mills are shutting down one after another, and the market demand is weak. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend, and rapeseed oil oscillates at high levels [2] - **Two Meals**: Externally, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, which boosts US soybeans. Domestically, the spot price of oil mills decreases with the market, the traditional shutdown period is approaching, but the aquaculture industry is in serious losses, and the market trading slows down [3] 3.4交易策略 - **Three Oils**: For single - side trading, new long positions of palm oil can be slightly added, and soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate at high levels. For example, the pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 9300, and the support level is 8048 [2] - **Two Meals**: Near - month short positions of double - meal can gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment. For example, the pressure level of the M2605 contract is 3278, and the support level is 2710 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, the international crude oil price is under pressure after the US announced the armistice conditions, but it is still oscillating at a high level. The US biodiesel policy is about to be announced, and US soybean oil is oscillating at a high level. Malaysian palm oil follows the international crude oil price and oscillates at a high level. In the domestic market, the factory operating rate will continue to decline, and soybean oil production will decrease. It is the traditional off - season for demand, with both long and short factors coexisting. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend. The mid - term palm oil is still supported above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and new long positions can be re - entered. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have intensified high - level oscillations, mainly following the palm oil trend. For medium - and long - term investors, the price decline caused by the TACO event presents a new buying opportunity, and they should maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the US announced 15 armistice terms, and the international crude oil price cooled down, putting pressure on US soybeans. For soybean meal, affected by the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions gradually shifted positions to the 2609 contract. The 5 - 9 spread widened to - 60. The news of China's customs relaxing the inspection procedures for Brazil is questionable, and combined with the strong Brazilian premium, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal should focus on the support in the range of 2900 - 2950 yuan. For rapeseed meal, affected by the high - level correction of crude oil prices and the accelerated position shifting, the sentiment in the protein meal market is under pressure. The negotiation result of the soybean inspection rules between Brazil and China is still unclear, and the market is waiting for the detailed rules of biodiesel at the end of the month. The shutdown wave of domestic soybean oil mills is coming, which supports the spot and futures markets. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly bearish in the short term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2350 yuan. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - **Vegetable Oils**: On March 25, after the US announced the armistice conditions, international crude oil was under pressure and declined. Vegetable oils were under pressure at high levels. Palm oil had a large decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil oscillated at high levels. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8594 yuan/ton, down 1.67% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 32,990 lots; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8532 yuan/ton, down 1.55% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 945 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9644 yuan/ton, down 3% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 27,567 lots; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 9622 yuan/ton, up 2.69% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 10,373 lots. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9813 yuan/ton, down 1.38% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 14,079 lots; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9705 yuan/ton, down 1.28% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 692 lots [1]. - **Double - meal**: On March 24, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, and double - meal was under pressure and declined. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2961 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 87,521 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 3022 yuan/ton, down 0.92% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 14,452 lots. The main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2365 yuan/ton, down 1.42% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1407 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2431 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 12,382 lots [2]. 3.2重要资讯 - **Vegetable Oils**: - On Tuesday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures soared. The largest - scale crude oil supply disruption in history continued, and the US - Iran talks were in a "Rashomon" situation. The May crude oil futures contract rose $4.22, or 4.79%, to settle at $92.35 per barrel [1]. - On March 20 (Friday), a study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, and the reduction from the previous estimate is less than 1%. Although the overall production situation remains stable, it may decline in the short term because plantation workers return home for the Eid al - Fitr festival. Once the workers return to work after the holiday and the harvesting operations return to normal, the crop yield is expected to recover [1]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) said on Thursday that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. The Brazilian energy minister called for more tests before increasing the currently legally mandatory 15% biodiesel (made from products such as soybeans and tallow) mixing ratio [1]. - On March 19 (Thursday), the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released a report. According to the current ocean and atmospheric monitoring data, the La Nina phenomenon is still continuing. It is expected to change from La Nina to the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state next month, and it is likely to remain in the neutral state from May to July 2026. The CPC said that the El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last at least until the end of 2026 [1]. - The shipping survey agency SGS released data showing that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 889,128 tons, an increase of 61.0% compared with 552,196 tons exported from February 1 - 20. Exports to China were 57,600 tons, an increase of 8200 tons compared with 49,500 tons in the same period last month [1]. - Since there is no sign of the end of the Middle East war, supply concerns have pushed up the crude oil price. The strong crude oil futures make palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material. Industry officials said that Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing their purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [1][2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 990,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%; the edible palm oil inventory was 748,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.75%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 295,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 66.81% [2]. - As of March 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8940 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 346 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 126 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the basis was 156 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 178 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 667.11 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the basis was 567 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton [2]. - As of March 24, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.9 [2]. - **Double - meal**: - AgMarket.net company: It is expected that the US soybean planting area this spring will reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the US Department of Agriculture in February [2]. - Consulting company Patria AgroNegocios: The soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.79%, behind the 73.84% in the same period last year but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [2]. - Economic officials of the US and China held an "abnormally stable" talk on agricultural trade issues in Paris on the 15th. China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons compared with 5.8215 million tons last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 3.4092 million tons, and the five - week average was 5.9718 million tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons compared with 623,500 tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%; the contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons compared with 4.8823 million tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared with 20,000 tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%; the contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons compared with 76,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3]. - As of March 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3352 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 23,000 tons. The basis of soybean meal was 3303 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 41 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 54,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 339 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2382 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 42 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16 yuan/ton [3]. - The US soybean April futures crushing margin was - 363 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was - 38 yuan/ton; the Brazilian April futures crushing margin was - 4 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was 321 yuan/ton [3]. - The arrival cost of US Gulf April shipment to Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4155 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian April shipment to Zhangjiagang was 3834 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf April shipment was $525/ton; the CNF quote of Brazilian April shipment was $483/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian April shipment was $586/ton; the arrival cost of April - shipment rapeseed at Guangzhou Port was 5111 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3市场逻辑 - **Vegetable Oils**: In the external market, after the US announced 15 armistice terms, international oil prices were under pressure but still oscillated at a high level. The US biodiesel policy is about to be announced, and US soybean oil oscillates at a high level. Malaysian palm oil follows the international crude oil price and oscillates at a high level. In the domestic market, the factory operating rate will continue to decline, and soybean oil production will decrease. It is the traditional off - season for demand, with both long and short factors coexisting. Today's basis quotes are stable, having little impact on futures. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend. If the Middle East dispute cannot be effectively resolved, international oil prices will remain strong. Overall, the overnight commodity market was affected by the TACO transaction, and prices fluctuated sharply in the short term. Palm oil was under pressure and fell significantly, but in the medium term, it is still supported above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. New long positions can be re - entered. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have intensified high - level oscillations, mainly following the palm oil trend [2]. - **Double - meal**: In the external market, the US announced 15 armistice terms, and international crude oil prices cooled down, putting pressure on US soybeans. For soybean meal, affected by the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions gradually shifted positions to the 2609 contract. The 5 - 9 spread widened to - 60. The news of China's customs relaxing the inspection procedures for Brazil is questionable, and combined with the strong Brazilian premium, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal should focus on the support in the range of 2900 - 2950 yuan. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreased by 10 - 40 yuan with the market, and the near - month basis remained stable, with a slight increase in some areas. For rapeseed meal, affected by the high - level correction of crude oil prices and the accelerated position shifting, the sentiment in the protein meal market is under pressure. The negotiation result of the soybean inspection rules between Brazil and China is still unclear, and the market is waiting for the detailed rules of biodiesel at the end of the month. The shutdown wave of domestic soybean oil mills is coming, which supports the spot and futures markets. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly bearish in the short term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2350 yuan. In the spot market, market transactions are relatively limited, and end - users mainly make purchases based on rigid demand. The basis quotes in each region are adjusted within a narrow range. Overall, near - month short positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3.4交易策略 - **Vegetable Oils**: For the price decline caused by the TACO event, for medium - and long - term investors, vegetable oils present a new buying opportunity. They should maintain a bullish view in the medium and long term and buy on dips. The pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 9300, and the support level is 8048; the pressure level of the Y2609 contract is 9700, and the support level is 8054; the pressure level of the P2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8776; the pressure level of the P2609 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8710; the pressure level of the OI2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9212; the pressure level of the OI2609 contract is 12,000

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market trends, important macro - economic and industry - related information, and upcoming economic data and events, covering multiple sectors such as metals, energy, agriculture, and finance [4][7][14] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally declined. COMEX gold futures fell 2.47% to $4492.00 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 11.26%, and COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.81 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 16.64% [4] - Most London base metals fell. LME lead rose 0.08% to $1889.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.97%; LME zinc fell 0.50% to $3056.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.28%; LME nickel fell 0.58% to $16885.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 2.21%; LME tin fell 1.61% to $42840.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 8.97%; LME aluminum fell 1.85% to $3192.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.20%; LME copper fell 2.57% to $11834.5 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.40% [4] - U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.66% to $98.09 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.12%; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.61% to $104.41 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 5.25% [4] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that La Nina is still ongoing and is expected to transition to ENSO neutral next month, likely remaining neutral from May to July 2026 [7] - Yemen's Houthi rebels may block the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait to support Iran [7] - As of March 20, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (composite index) was 1706.95 points, down 3.40 points from the previous period. The China Containerized Freight Index was 1120.61 points, up 4.5% from the previous period [7] - Trump's administration is considering actions to occupy or block Iran's Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [7] - Traders expect a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of October and a possible rate hike in December, contrasting with earlier expectations of a rate cut [8] - The U.S. Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, while Trump insists not to send U.S. troops into Iran [8] - Fed Governor Bowman expects the economy to grow strongly this year and still anticipates three rate cuts [10] - Fed Governor Waller originally planned to vote for a rate cut but will take a more cautious approach due to oil supply tensions and inflation threats [10] - Israel and the U.S. will "significantly increase" military strikes against Iran in the next week [11] - Trump threatened to attack and destroy all of Iran's power plants if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours [12] - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the U.S. - China Business Council delegation, hoping to promote Sino - U.S. economic and trade relations [12] - Iran is promoting the "monetization of control over the Strait of Hormuz," with each tanker potentially paying about $2 million to pass through [12] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would take four measures if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants is carried out [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - Sichuan Wujun Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s second - line with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day went into operation last Friday [14] - China's crude oil imports in February 2026 were 48045363.29 tons, a 1.72% month - on - month decrease and a 12.62% year - on - year increase [15] - From the night session on March 20, 2026, the maximum daily opening positions for non - futures company members or clients in methanol futures 2605 contract are 16000 lots, and in caustic soda futures 2605 contract are 8000 lots [15] - The International Energy Agency's chief said it may take up to six months to restore oil and gas supplies from the Gulf, and the world is facing a severe energy crisis [15] - An Indian LPG tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz after diplomatic efforts [15] - Six fuel transport ships originally scheduled to arrive in Australia next month have had their voyages cancelled or postponed due to the Middle East conflict [16] Metal Futures - Last week, copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 22337 tons, aluminum inventory increased by 35619 tons, zinc inventory increased by 4918 tons, lead inventory decreased by 9939 tons, nickel inventory decreased by 20 tons, and tin inventory decreased by 2472 tons [18] - As of March 19, the inventory of 32 sample lithium ore traders' spot ports and warehouses was 200,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from last week, while the salable inventory was 105,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton decrease from last week [20] - Starting from the trading on April 22, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the night of April 21), the Shanghai Futures Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for qualified foreign institutional investors, including nickel futures and options contracts [20] - From March 24, 2026, the minimum opening and closing order quantities of platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted, and the price limit and margin standards will also be adjusted [21] - Global primary aluminum production in February 2026 was 5.685 million tons, compared with 5.633 million tons in the same period last year and 6.317 million tons in the previous month. China's primary aluminum production in February is estimated to be 3.421 million tons, compared with 3.786 million tons in the previous month [21] Black - Series Futures - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a 1.44 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 2.18 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a 2.61 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 3.17 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2815 million tons, a 69,500 - ton increase from last week and an 81,100 - ton decrease from the same period last year [23] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 170.984 million tons, a decrease of 891,200 tons from the previous week; the total inventory at 47 ports was 178.1418 million tons, a decrease of 1.3314 million tons from the previous week [23] - The total urban inventory this week was 12.0088 million tons, a 105,400 - ton (- 0.87%) decrease from last week. The inventory of construction steel was 6.4461 million tons, a 2300 - ton (+ 0.04%) increase from last week [24] Agricultural Futures - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period last month [26] - As of the week of March 20, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 297.68 yuan per head, compared with a loss of 283.15 yuan per head on March 13. The profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 141.48 yuan per head, compared with a loss of 118.18 yuan per head on March 13 [26] - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase from the same period last month [27] - In the 12th week of 2026 (March 14 - 20), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, a 21,100 - ton increase from the previous week and 61,000 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 54.81% [27] - Li Qiang emphasized high - level guarantee of stable and safe supply of important agricultural products [28] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium for pig - farming enterprises, requiring them to adjust production and control inventory to promote market stability [28] Financial Market Finance - Similar to agricultural futures, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 increased, and pig - farming profits were in the red [30][31] - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased slightly, and the operating rate was 54.81% [31] - Li Qiang emphasized high - level guarantee of stable and safe supply of important agricultural products [32] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium for pig - farming enterprises to promote market stability [32] Industry - By March 15, the weekly call volume of Chinese AI large models reached 46.9 trillion Tokens, surpassing the U.S. for the second consecutive week. JPMorgan predicts a 370 - fold increase in China's AI inference Token consumption from 2025 to 2030 [34] - On March 23 at 24:00, domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise for the fifth consecutive time, with an estimated increase of about 2000 yuan per ton [34] - Chinese automakers' global cumulative sales in 2025 exceeded Japan's for the first time [34] - A rare - earth mine in Sichuan increased its reserves by over 200% [35] - Several cities in Jiangsu issued automobile purchase subsidies [35] - China's first fully domestic solution - based polyolefin elastomer industrial device entered trial operation [37] - Many wealth - management companies adjusted their performance benchmarks [37] Overseas - The Trump administration is in preliminary consultations for a "peace talk" with Iran, with specific demands [38] - Iran allows non - enemy ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination [38] - Iran put forward six conditions for a cease - fire [38] - South Korea's President Li Zaiming will exclude multi - property owners from real - estate policies [39] - India is facing an LPG shortage, and the government will increase the commercial LPG sales quota [41] Commodity - Some banks have raised the handling fees for gold accumulation business [42] - The G7 called on Iran to stop attacks and is ready to support global energy supply [42] Foreign Exchange - China's central bank governor said China has no need to depreciate the exchange rate for trade advantages and will maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [43] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Singapore's February CPI, Canada's national economic confidence index, U.S. economic data, etc. [45] - Events include China's central bank's reverse - repurchase maturity, Huawei's product launch, European Central Bank speeches, etc. [47]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the Fed's firm attitude and weakened rate - cut expectations, commodities weakened overall on March 20th, with the vegetable oil sector showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil led the decline under pressure, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated at high levels. It's recommended to exit long positions in oils and hold short positions in palm oil, and there is also room for decline in soybean oil and rapeseed oil later [2]. - For the two - meal sector, on March 20th, domestic double - meals showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market was worried about the postponement of the US President's visit to China and the subsequent Sino - US economic and trade relations, betting on the rise of long - term double - meals. It's recommended to operate the near - and long - month contracts of double - meals differently, with short positions in near - month contracts and long positions in long - month contracts [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market (1) Market Review - On March 20th, the Fed's attitude weakened rate - cut expectations, causing overall weakness in commodities and a differentiated trend in the vegetable oil sector. Palm oil led the decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated at high levels. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton, up 0.14% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 398 lots; the main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 9,718 yuan/ton, down 0.80% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 11,646 lots; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9,876 yuan/ton, up 0.22% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2,919 lots [2]. (2) Important Information - On March 19th, NYMEX crude oil futures closed down, with the US oil main contract down 0.19% at $96.14/barrel and the Brent oil main contract up 1.18% at $108.65/barrel. Israel said it would suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [2]. - A study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with a forecast range of 46 - 56 million tons, a downward adjustment of less than 1% from the previous forecast. Short - term production may decline due to plantation workers returning home for Eid al - Fitr, but is expected to recover after the holiday [2]. - The Abiove said the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be blended into regular diesel to cope with the energy price crisis. The Brazilian Energy Minister called for more tests before increasing the current legally mandated 15% biodiesel blending ratio [2]. - On March 19th, the CPC reported that La Nina is still ongoing, expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, and likely to remain neutral from May to July 2026. El Nino may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [2]. - The Malaysian MPOB report showed that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month; production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% month - on - month to 1.13 million tons [2]. - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase compared with February 1 - 15. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with the same period last month [2]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0557 million tons, a weekly increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49% [2][3]. (3) Market Logic - Overseas, the global financial market fluctuated sharply overnight, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and precious metals falling sharply, triggering a liquidity crisis and a strong global recession expectation. US soybean oil was under pressure at high levels. In Malaysia, palm oil markets were closed for Eid al - Fitr, and prices were strong the day before the holiday, but surrounding vegetable oils weakened [3]. - For soybean oil in China, some factories have shut down, and the upcoming end - of - month shutdown wave has some support for the futures market. However, it is still the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation is more negative than the shutdown support [3]. - For palm oil, although the data of lower production in the first half of the month on the production side provided short - term support to the market, with the gradual slowdown of exports and the potential negative impact of increased production after Eid al - Fitr, crude palm oil futures are still under pressure to fall [3]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic vegetable oil market has shown obvious signs of stagnant growth and is still at risk of a corrective decline. In the short term, it will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation and maintain a wide - range volatile adjustment trend. Spot trading in rapeseed oil has been continuously light, and it is difficult for the market to pick up goods, with most oil mills delivering to reserve depots [3]. (4) Trading Strategy - In the single - sided market, exit long positions in oils, hold short positions in palm oil. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a volatile state and have room for decline. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 9,300 and a support level of 8,048 [3]. 2. Two - Meal Market (1) Market Review - On March 20th, domestic double - meals showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 0.43% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 78,358 lots; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2,423 yuan/ton, down 0.82% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,298 lots [3]. (2) Important Information - The NOPA's February soybean crushing volume is expected to reach a record high for the month, with 9 analysts predicting an average of 202.725 million bushels [4]. - Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. The risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing, posing a potential threat to the soybean export prospects of Brazil and the US [4]. - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" agricultural trade talk in Paris on the 15th, and China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [4]. - ANEC reported that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 are estimated to be 16.09 million tons, a 2% increase compared with March 2025 [4]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory was 5.8215 million tons, a decrease of 284,700 tons from the previous week; the domestic soybean meal inventory was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week [4]. (3) Market Logic - Overseas, US soybeans are testing the 20 - day moving average. If they cannot break through effectively, there is a risk of new declines. For soybean meal, although the import cost has slightly decreased, the decline in the futures market is limited due to the end - of - month shutdown wave and the strong spot market. In the short term, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the range of 3,000 - 3,100 yuan [4]. - For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture season has not arrived, and the market trading volume has been light, with mainly rigid - demand purchases. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis quotation is adjusted in a narrow range [4]. (4) Trading Strategy - Operate the near - and long - month contracts of double - meals differently, with short positions in near - month contracts and long positions in long - month contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 3,278 and a support level of 2,710 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the approaching Ramadan, the Malaysian palm oil market was closed. Before the closure, its performance was relatively strong, but the surrounding vegetable oils weakened. The domestic soybean oil market will face a shutdown wave at the end of the month, which provides some support to the futures market. However, it is currently the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation has more negative impacts than the support from the shutdown. The palm oil market may face pressure to decline due to the slowdown in exports and the potential increase in production after Ramadan. The rapeseed oil market is still at risk of a pull - back and will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation, maintaining a wide - range volatile adjustment. It is recommended to exit long positions and hold short positions [2][3]. - For the double - meal sector, the external soybean market may face a new decline risk if it cannot effectively break through the 20 - day moving average. The decline of the domestic soybean meal futures is limited due to the shutdown wave at the end of the month and the strong spot market. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain in the range of 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal market has light trading volume as the aquaculture season has not arrived. It is recommended to exit long positions at low levels and try short positions with a small amount [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil 3.1.1 Market Performance - On March 19, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, international crude oil prices rose sharply, but the vegetable oil market did not follow significantly. The vegetable oil sector showed a narrow - range oscillation. The closing prices and changes of main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 8616 yuan/ton, up 0.89% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 19737 lots; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 8530 yuan/ton, down 0.92% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 7975 lots [2]. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 9796 yuan/ton, up 1.07% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1763 lots; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 9706 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4735 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 9854 yuan/ton, up 0.76% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5030 lots; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 9708 yuan/ton, up 0.72% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2362 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 19, NYMEX crude oil futures fell, with the main US oil contract down 0.19% to $96.14/barrel, and the main Brent oil contract up 1.18% to $108.65/barrel. Israel said it would suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [2]. - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate. Production may decline in the short term due to plantation workers returning home for Ramadan but is expected to recover after the holiday [2]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggested that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Brazilian energy minister called for more tests before increasing the mandatory biodiesel mixing ratio [2]. - On March 19, the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that the La Nina phenomenon is still ongoing, is expected to turn into an ENSO - neutral state next month, and is likely to remain neutral from May to July 2026. An El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [2]. - The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. Market expectations were 2.63 million tons for inventory, 1.3 million tons for production, and 1.18 million tons for exports [2]. - The shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase from 393,853 tons in the same period of February. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, a 1700 - ton increase from the previous month [2][3]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0557 million tons, a weekly increase of 9400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 990,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.35%; edible palm oil inventory was 760,900 tons, a weekly increase of 16,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, and a year - on - year increase of 94.21%; rapeseed oil inventory was 304,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.54%, and a year - on - year decrease of 64.42% [3]. - As of March 19, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis was 244 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was 74 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 94 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 388.13 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,410 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, and the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [3]. - As of March 19, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.83 [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the global financial market fluctuated overnight, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and precious metals falling sharply, triggering a liquidity crisis and a strong global recession expectation. The US soybean oil was under pressure at a high level. Domestically, some soybean oil factories have shut down, and the market is concerned about the shutdown wave at the end of the month, which provides some support to the futures market. However, it is the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation has more negative impacts. The palm oil market may face pressure due to the slowdown in exports and the potential increase in production after Ramadan. The rapeseed oil market is still at risk of a pull - back and will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation [2][3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, exit long positions in oils and increase short positions. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 9300, support level 8048. - Y2609: Pressure level 9700, support level 8054. - P2605: Pressure level 12000, support level 8776. - P2609: Pressure level 12000, support level 8710. - OI2605: Pressure level 12000, support level 9212. - OI2609: Pressure level 12000, support level 9180 [3]. 3.2 Double - Meal 3.2.1 Market Performance - On March 19, domestic double - meal futures opened and closed lower, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. The closing prices and changes of main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, up 0.20% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 26,514 lots; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 3009 yuan/ton, up 0.17% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 14,892 lots [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2443 yuan/ton, with no change day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 13,533 lots; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2438 yuan/ton, up 0.45% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 4094 lots [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The forecast of the NOPA monthly soybean crushing report shows that the average prediction of 9 analysts is that the NOPA member companies' soybean crushing volume in February may reach a record high for that month, with an average of 202.725 million bushels [3][4]. - Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified. The soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. Although the current export volume is relatively limited, if the conflict persists, shipping and insurance costs may increase, posing a potential threat to the export prospects [4]. - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" talk on agricultural trade in Paris on the 15th. China still promises to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [4]. - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2% increase from 15.73 million tons in March 2025 [4]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.8215 million tons, a decrease of 284,700 tons from the previous week. The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 18.71%; the contract volume was 4.8823 million tons, a decrease of 351,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.72%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 181,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal for crushing was 20,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 33.33%; the contract volume was 76,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 65.22% [4]. - As of March 19, the spot price of soybean meal was 3399 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 49,000 tons. The basis of soybean meal was 3381 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 131,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 318 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2670 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, and the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal was 2501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 27 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month [4]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans in April was - 342 yuan/ton for the futures market and - 42 yuan/ton for the spot market; the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in April was 188 yuan/ton for the futures market and 488 yuan/ton for the spot market [4]. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans in April at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4139 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 3777 yuan/ton. The CNF quotes of US Gulf soybeans in April were $523/ton, and those of Brazilian soybeans were $476/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed in April was $570/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed at Guangzhou Port in April was 5167 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, if the US soybean market cannot effectively break through the 20 - day moving average, it may face a new decline risk. Domestically, although the import cost of soybean meal has slightly decreased, the decline of the futures market is limited due to the shutdown wave at the end of the month and the strong spot market. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain in the range of 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal market has light trading volume as the aquaculture season has not arrived [3][4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Exit existing long positions and try short positions with a small amount. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 3278, support level 2710. - M2607: Pressure level 3000, support level 2680. - M2609: Pressure level 3200, support level 2833. - RM2605: Pressure level 2600, support level 2220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2560, support level 2200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2600, support level 2274 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The core view on sugar is neutral - bearish. In the context of the global sugar production increase cycle, although the sugar price is close to the historically low - valuation range, there is still no obvious upward driving force. It needs additional weather - driven factors to break out of the bottom - range oscillation. Considering the weak intensity of this La Nina, the supply - demand situation may not reverse until the 26/27 sugar - crushing season [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 ICE Sugar - After the Brazilian sugar production became clearer, the price rose periodically due to India's lower - than - expected production increase, and the overall market was in a range - bound pattern. The market had high - yield expectations for Brazil, but the high - yield expectations continuously suppressed the market. Although Brazil maintained production with a record - high sugar - production rate, institutions began to lower the forecast of Brazil's final sugar output. As Brazil's sugar production exceeded that of the previous year due to the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the market expected Brazil's production to recover, and the sugar price continued to decline [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Sugar - As the raw sugar price fell, there was an import profit in the far - month contracts, and the import volume was expected to increase after May. The far - month contracts were still under the expectation of the opening of imported syrup, so the market showed a back structure. During the Spring Festival, the domestic sugar market had a prosperous production and sales situation. From July to October, the increasing imports led to a decline in domestic prices, and the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage was realized. The domestic price challenged the new - sugar production cost [9]. 3.2 International Market: Production Increase Cycle 3.2.1 Global Sugar Market - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the global sugar market would have a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. The sugar production was expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption would only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The global sugar market had a supply - demand gap of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season. The expected production increase in the 2025/26 season would likely continue to suppress the sugar price in the next year [12]. 3.2.2 Major Producing Countries - **Brazil**: In the second half of October, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year. As of the second half of October in the 2025/26 season, ethanol production also increased year - on - year in the short term but decreased in the cumulative amount. The Brazilian government approved an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline. As of the week of November 19, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports decreased. Although the ATR was low, Brazil's sugar production exceeded that of the previous year due to the high sugar - making ratio. Currently, the raw - sugar price was below Brazil's production cost, and the sugar - making ratio began to decline [20][38][39]. - **India**: The 2025/26 season's sugar production (excluding the amount for ethanol production) was expected to be 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol use) was 30.95 million tons. The sugar - crushing season in Uttar Pradesh had started. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) urged the government to revise the minimum sugar sales price and ethanol procurement price [44][48]. - **Thailand**: The expected production increase remained basically unchanged, and the impact of the Thai market, especially on China, mainly came from syrup exports [50]. 3.2.3 Weather Impact - The La Nina phenomenon was expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter and was most likely to turn into a normal El Nino - Southern Oscillation state from January to March 2026. La Nina might cause drought in the central - southern region of Brazil during the 2025 - 2026 sugar - cane growing season, potentially affecting the 26/27 production, but the impact was uncertain due to the weak intensity of this La Nina. It was not expected to affect the planting seasons in India and Thailand [60]. 3.3 Domestic Market: Surge in Imports - **Import Situation**: There was a clear profit window for out - of - quota imports this year, and the domestic market was hit by a large amount of imported sugar from July to October. The import volume was expected to remain high in November. The price of processed new sugar was 5750 - 5890 yuan/ton. The control on Thai syrup was restarted, and the cumulative import volume of syrup and syrup + pre - mixed powder decreased significantly year - on - year [72][81]. - **Production and Sales**: As of the end of October, 29 sugar mills had started operation, one less than the same period last year. The sugar production was 413,400 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons year - on - year, while the sales volume was 91,600 tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons year - on - year. New sugar was sold at a high price due to cost support, and the 01 - contract position was still increasing [94]. - **Price Outlook**: The basis was converging. In terms of the monthly spread, the near - end spot price was supported by cost and was more likely to form a positive - arbitrage trend. In the long term, the raw - sugar price was under pressure, but the downside was limited. The Zhengzhou sugar price was supported by new - sugar cost in the short term but was suppressed by imported sugar in the long term. In 2026, attention should be paid to the expected differences between the production increase expectations and actual production in India and Thailand, as well as the impact of La Nina on Brazil's winter precipitation and sugar - cane yield [103].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The probability of the current ENSO neutral climate transitioning to La Nina climate between October and December 2025 has been raised to 71% [2]. - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09% month - on - month, and production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month [2]. - Protein meal: Night - session soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Despite uncertainties in US soybean exports due to Sino - US trade tariffs, lower planting area and poor weather since August are expected to lead to a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit. US soybeans have strong support at the bottom with limited downside. In China, the expectation of abundant raw material supply continues, and it is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - Oils: Night - session oils trended strongly. Malaysia's palm oil production in August was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; and inventory was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase. Short - term palm oil prices may be under pressure. US biodiesel policy has a negative impact on soybean oil, but the upcoming USDA report may boost soybean oil futures prices. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade relations and US biodiesel policy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8336, 9330, and 9893 respectively, with price changes of 80, 86, and 123, and percentage changes of 0.97%, 0.93%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3088, 2550, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of 22, - 15, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.72%, - 0.58%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values. Ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 also had corresponding current and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4340, 1025, 51, and 286 respectively, with price changes of - 40, - 6, 1, and - 3, and percentage changes of - 0.91%, - 0.53%, 1.17%, and - 1.00% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil were 8520, 8640, and 9330 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12%, 0.12%, and - 0.53% respectively. Spot prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads such as those between different grades of oils and meals had current and previous values, showing corresponding changes [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit**: The current import profits of products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans were - 292, 105, and - 70 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The current warehouse receipt quantities of products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 24,544, 639, and 6,953 respectively, with some showing no change compared to the previous values [1].

Report Information - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [1][17][21][26][31][33][38] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products [2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, focus on low - buying strategies [3][5] - **Soybean Oil**: Stabilized as US soybeans closed higher [3][5] - **Soybean Meal**: Rebounded following US soybeans, awaiting USDA supply - demand report [3][14] - **Soybean No.1**: Rebounded and fluctuated [3][14] - **Corn**: Traded in a range [17] - **Sugar**: Consolidated in a narrow range [21] - **Cotton**: Monitor the listing of new cotton [26] - **Eggs**: Continued trading range [31] - **Hogs**: Spot market was weak, while policy was strong [33] - **Peanuts**: Monitor the listing of new peanuts [38] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures closed at 9,330 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.93% increase, and 9,348 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.19% increase; soybean oil futures closed at 8,336 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.97% increase, and 8,326 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.12% decrease [5] - **News**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month; analysts expect Malaysian palm oil inventory in September to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [13] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3,911 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.13% decrease, and 3,957 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.79% increase; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,066 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.33% decrease, and 3,090 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.49% increase [14] - **News**: On September 11, CBOT soybeans closed higher as traders adjusted positions before the USDA supply - demand report; analysts expect a slight decrease in US soybean yield but a large overall production [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Slightly bullish (+1) [16] Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511 closed at 2,202 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.14% increase, and 2,201 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.05% decrease; C2601 closed at 2,172 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.09% decrease, and 2,169 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.14% decrease [18] - **News**: Northern corn port prices were stable, while North China corn prices were slightly down [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [20] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar price was 16.47 cents/pound, mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and futures main contract price was 5,556 yuan/ton [21] - **News**: Indian monsoon rainfall increased; Brazilian sugar exports decreased; Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [21] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [24] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 closed at 13,835 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.14% decrease, and 13,830 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.04% decrease; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.74 cents/pound with a 0.03% increase [26] - **News**: Cotton spot trading was light; US cotton exports decreased [27][28] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [30] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510 closed at 3,043 yuan/500 kg with a 0.36% increase; Egg 2601 closed at 3,349 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.71% decrease [31] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [31] Hogs - **Fundamentals**: Henan spot price was 13,530 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price was 13,400 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price was 14,240 yuan/ton; Futures contracts showed different price changes [34] - **Market Logic**: Spot prices may decline further due to large supply in September - October; short - term LH2511 support is 12,500 yuan/ton, and resistance is 13,500 yuan/ton [36] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Liaoning 308 general peanuts were priced at 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general peanuts were priced at 8,360 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease [38] - **News**: New peanuts in some areas are expected to be listed soon; trading volume was affected by rainfall [39] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [40]