1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The core view on sugar is neutral - bearish. In the context of the global sugar production increase cycle, although the sugar price is close to the historically low - valuation range, there is still no obvious upward driving force. It needs additional weather - driven factors to break out of the bottom - range oscillation. Considering the weak intensity of this La Nina, the supply - demand situation may not reverse until the 26/27 sugar - crushing season [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 ICE Sugar - After the Brazilian sugar production became clearer, the price rose periodically due to India's lower - than - expected production increase, and the overall market was in a range - bound pattern. The market had high - yield expectations for Brazil, but the high - yield expectations continuously suppressed the market. Although Brazil maintained production with a record - high sugar - production rate, institutions began to lower the forecast of Brazil's final sugar output. As Brazil's sugar production exceeded that of the previous year due to the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the market expected Brazil's production to recover, and the sugar price continued to decline [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Sugar - As the raw sugar price fell, there was an import profit in the far - month contracts, and the import volume was expected to increase after May. The far - month contracts were still under the expectation of the opening of imported syrup, so the market showed a back structure. During the Spring Festival, the domestic sugar market had a prosperous production and sales situation. From July to October, the increasing imports led to a decline in domestic prices, and the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage was realized. The domestic price challenged the new - sugar production cost [9]. 3.2 International Market: Production Increase Cycle 3.2.1 Global Sugar Market - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the global sugar market would have a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. The sugar production was expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption would only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The global sugar market had a supply - demand gap of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season. The expected production increase in the 2025/26 season would likely continue to suppress the sugar price in the next year [12]. 3.2.2 Major Producing Countries - **Brazil**: In the second half of October, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year. As of the second half of October in the 2025/26 season, ethanol production also increased year - on - year in the short term but decreased in the cumulative amount. The Brazilian government approved an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline. As of the week of November 19, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports decreased. Although the ATR was low, Brazil's sugar production exceeded that of the previous year due to the high sugar - making ratio. Currently, the raw - sugar price was below Brazil's production cost, and the sugar - making ratio began to decline [20][38][39]. - **India**: The 2025/26 season's sugar production (excluding the amount for ethanol production) was expected to be 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol use) was 30.95 million tons. The sugar - crushing season in Uttar Pradesh had started. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) urged the government to revise the minimum sugar sales price and ethanol procurement price [44][48]. - **Thailand**: The expected production increase remained basically unchanged, and the impact of the Thai market, especially on China, mainly came from syrup exports [50]. 3.2.3 Weather Impact - The La Nina phenomenon was expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter and was most likely to turn into a normal El Nino - Southern Oscillation state from January to March 2026. La Nina might cause drought in the central - southern region of Brazil during the 2025 - 2026 sugar - cane growing season, potentially affecting the 26/27 production, but the impact was uncertain due to the weak intensity of this La Nina. It was not expected to affect the planting seasons in India and Thailand [60]. 3.3 Domestic Market: Surge in Imports - **Import Situation**: There was a clear profit window for out - of - quota imports this year, and the domestic market was hit by a large amount of imported sugar from July to October. The import volume was expected to remain high in November. The price of processed new sugar was 5750 - 5890 yuan/ton. The control on Thai syrup was restarted, and the cumulative import volume of syrup and syrup + pre - mixed powder decreased significantly year - on - year [72][81]. - **Production and Sales**: As of the end of October, 29 sugar mills had started operation, one less than the same period last year. The sugar production was 413,400 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons year - on - year, while the sales volume was 91,600 tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons year - on - year. New sugar was sold at a high price due to cost support, and the 01 - contract position was still increasing [94]. - **Price Outlook**: The basis was converging. In terms of the monthly spread, the near - end spot price was supported by cost and was more likely to form a positive - arbitrage trend. In the long term, the raw - sugar price was under pressure, but the downside was limited. The Zhengzhou sugar price was supported by new - sugar cost in the short term but was suppressed by imported sugar in the long term. In 2026, attention should be paid to the expected differences between the production increase expectations and actual production in India and Thailand, as well as the impact of La Nina on Brazil's winter precipitation and sugar - cane yield [103].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The probability of the current ENSO neutral climate transitioning to La Nina climate between October and December 2025 has been raised to 71% [2]. - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09% month - on - month, and production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month [2]. - Protein meal: Night - session soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Despite uncertainties in US soybean exports due to Sino - US trade tariffs, lower planting area and poor weather since August are expected to lead to a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit. US soybeans have strong support at the bottom with limited downside. In China, the expectation of abundant raw material supply continues, and it is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - Oils: Night - session oils trended strongly. Malaysia's palm oil production in August was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; and inventory was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase. Short - term palm oil prices may be under pressure. US biodiesel policy has a negative impact on soybean oil, but the upcoming USDA report may boost soybean oil futures prices. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade relations and US biodiesel policy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8336, 9330, and 9893 respectively, with price changes of 80, 86, and 123, and percentage changes of 0.97%, 0.93%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3088, 2550, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of 22, - 15, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.72%, - 0.58%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values. Ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 also had corresponding current and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4340, 1025, 51, and 286 respectively, with price changes of - 40, - 6, 1, and - 3, and percentage changes of - 0.91%, - 0.53%, 1.17%, and - 1.00% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil were 8520, 8640, and 9330 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12%, 0.12%, and - 0.53% respectively. Spot prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads such as those between different grades of oils and meals had current and previous values, showing corresponding changes [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit**: The current import profits of products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans were - 292, 105, and - 70 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The current warehouse receipt quantities of products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 24,544, 639, and 6,953 respectively, with some showing no change compared to the previous values [1].

Report Information - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [1][17][21][26][31][33][38] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products [2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, focus on low - buying strategies [3][5] - **Soybean Oil**: Stabilized as US soybeans closed higher [3][5] - **Soybean Meal**: Rebounded following US soybeans, awaiting USDA supply - demand report [3][14] - **Soybean No.1**: Rebounded and fluctuated [3][14] - **Corn**: Traded in a range [17] - **Sugar**: Consolidated in a narrow range [21] - **Cotton**: Monitor the listing of new cotton [26] - **Eggs**: Continued trading range [31] - **Hogs**: Spot market was weak, while policy was strong [33] - **Peanuts**: Monitor the listing of new peanuts [38] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures closed at 9,330 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.93% increase, and 9,348 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.19% increase; soybean oil futures closed at 8,336 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.97% increase, and 8,326 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.12% decrease [5] - **News**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month; analysts expect Malaysian palm oil inventory in September to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [13] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3,911 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.13% decrease, and 3,957 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.79% increase; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,066 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.33% decrease, and 3,090 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.49% increase [14] - **News**: On September 11, CBOT soybeans closed higher as traders adjusted positions before the USDA supply - demand report; analysts expect a slight decrease in US soybean yield but a large overall production [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Slightly bullish (+1) [16] Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511 closed at 2,202 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.14% increase, and 2,201 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.05% decrease; C2601 closed at 2,172 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.09% decrease, and 2,169 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.14% decrease [18] - **News**: Northern corn port prices were stable, while North China corn prices were slightly down [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [20] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar price was 16.47 cents/pound, mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and futures main contract price was 5,556 yuan/ton [21] - **News**: Indian monsoon rainfall increased; Brazilian sugar exports decreased; Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [21] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [24] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 closed at 13,835 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.14% decrease, and 13,830 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.04% decrease; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.74 cents/pound with a 0.03% increase [26] - **News**: Cotton spot trading was light; US cotton exports decreased [27][28] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [30] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510 closed at 3,043 yuan/500 kg with a 0.36% increase; Egg 2601 closed at 3,349 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.71% decrease [31] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [31] Hogs - **Fundamentals**: Henan spot price was 13,530 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price was 13,400 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price was 14,240 yuan/ton; Futures contracts showed different price changes [34] - **Market Logic**: Spot prices may decline further due to large supply in September - October; short - term LH2511 support is 12,500 yuan/ton, and resistance is 13,500 yuan/ton [36] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Liaoning 308 general peanuts were priced at 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general peanuts were priced at 8,360 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease [38] - **News**: New peanuts in some areas are expected to be listed soon; trading volume was affected by rainfall [39] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [40]