行业走势图 食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《消费筑底政策共振，白酒或至底部 重视布局—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《中央经济工作会议积极定调，飞天 批价或止跌触底 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《白酒短期批价扰动，西麦新品值得 关注—行业周报》-2025.12.7 白酒龙头抗风险能力突出，原奶供需平衡点渐行渐近 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：白酒布局价值显现，原奶供需优化催生投资机会 12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 0.6%，一级子行业排名第 25，跑 输沪深 300 约 2.5pct，子行业中保健品（+0.5%）、其他食品（+0.0%）、白酒（-0.2%） 表现相对领先。当前高端白酒行 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the dairy industry, particularly recommending attention to YouRan Dairy (9858.HK) as a potential investment opportunity [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on December 22, 2025, to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU, effective from December 23, 2025 [1][3]. - The anti-subsidy investigation, initiated in July 2024, revealed that the EU provided substantial subsidies to its dairy industry, causing material harm to the domestic industry in China [3]. - The subsidy rates for affected products, including fresh cheese, processed cheese, and cream, range from 21.9% to 42.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Anti-Subsidy Measures - The anti-subsidy measures are expected to increase import prices, which may help balance the supply and demand of raw milk in China [4]. - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 2.1824 million tons of various dairy products, with significant contributions from the EU, accounting for 15% of cheese, 12% of cream, and 29% of other cream products [4]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic dairy prices have been declining due to an oversupply of raw milk, and the price advantage of imported dairy products is diminishing [4]. - The implementation of anti-subsidy measures is anticipated to weaken the price advantage of imported dairy products, potentially reducing overseas supply and promoting a return to supply-demand balance in China's raw milk industry [4]. Investment Recommendations - As domestic dairy product demand stabilizes and anti-subsidy measures stimulate the demand for domestic raw milk processing, the report encourages monitoring YouRan Dairy (9858.HK) for investment opportunities [5].

食品饮料 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 供需正在趋于平衡，原奶价格有望企稳 ——食品饮料行业点评报告 证券研究报告-行业点评报告 同步大市(维持) 食品饮料相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《食品饮料行业点评报告：春江水暖，底部遍 寻，食饮或迎拐点》 2025-02-27 《食品饮料行业月报：春节消费支撑有限，节 后板块下跌较多》 2025-02-11 《食品饮料行业深度分析：国内奢侈品及高档 白酒消费变化》 2025-02-07 联系人：李智 投资要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共6页 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 根据农业部的监测数据：2024 年奶牛存栏量同比减少 4.5%，原奶 产量同比下降 2.8%。根据 2023 年的情况推算，2024 年的奶牛存栏 量为 630 万头，原奶产量为 4161.13 万吨。2024 年，奶牛存栏和 原奶产量双双减少，为原奶价格企稳创造了条件。我们预计原奶价 格年内有望企稳。 ⚫ 投资建议：原奶上游供需平衡有利于行业整体的发展，乳制品行 ...