重要事项: Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、上海发布楼市"沪七条"进一步调减住房限购政策。 | | | | | 2、2026 年 2 月 25 日，澳大利亚反倾销委员会发布第 2026/026 号公告称，澳大利 | | | | | 亚工业、创新和科学部长（the Minister for Industry and Innovation and Minister | | | | | for Science）通过了澳大利亚反倾销委员会对进口自中国的直径小于等于 50 毫米 | | | | | 的钢筋（Steel reinforcing bar）作出的反倾销复审终裁建议，决定自本公告发 | | | | | 布之日起对中国出口商宝武集团鄂城钢铁有限公司以最低限价（floor price | | ...

就在日前，中国商务部的一纸终裁公告，让中欧乳制品贸易的博弈有了最终答案。 公告显示，自2月13日起，中方将对原产于欧盟的相关乳制品征收反补贴税，实施期限5年，税率定格在7.4%至11.7%。 和之前最高42.7%的临时税率相比，整整降了31个百分点。 一边宣布继续加征反补贴税，一边又将税率大幅下降，咱们这波操作，到底意味着什么？ 首先要明确的是，征税5年合理合法，这是中国维护国内产业的底线和红线。 而且这场反补贴调查不是凭空而起。 2024年8月，国内相关企业递交调查申请，我国商务部随后正式立案。 历经一年半的调查，从初裁到终裁，最终确认欧盟相关乳制品确实存在补贴行为，而且对我国的乳制品产业造成了实质损害，这个反补贴税，欧盟交的不 亏。 据悉，被调查的乳制品覆盖多个品类，从鲜乳酪到稀奶油，对应的税则号清晰明确，这些实打实的调查结果，就是中国采取反补贴措施的底气。 我们选择大幅下调税率，可以在一定程度上避免过高税率，对中欧乳制品贸易造成过度冲击，也能给欧洲乳制品企业保留进入中国市场的空间。 在国际贸易中，反补贴、反倾销是世贸组织赋予成员国的合法权利。 而中国的操作全程严格遵循国内的相关条例，也符合世贸组织的规则 ...

近日，法国某机构向欧盟提议对中国实施相当于约30%的整体关税。这份所谓"建议"，只针对中国商 品，明显违反世贸组织规则，无异于对华进行贸易宣战。 记者从相关人士处了解到，如果法国执意推动所谓"建议"落地，中方至少可以采取三方面的行动。 首先，中国完全可以考虑对欧盟，特别是法国的葡萄酒发起反倾销、反补贴调查。中国是欧盟葡萄酒重 要的出口市场，2024年欧盟葡萄酒对华出口近7亿美元，其中近半数为法国葡萄酒。 其次，如果法国不知悔改，中方可以对法国乃至欧盟近期系列对华不友好举措作出回应，如发起反歧视 调查。 监制：蒋莉莉 此外，如果欧盟单边对华加征关税，中国必将坚决反击，直接对欧盟有关产品采取"对等关税"予以反 制。中方始终敞开沟通的大门，但也做好准备应对一切挑战。 ...

Core Viewpoint - France has proposed a 30% overall tariff on Chinese goods, which is seen as a violation of WTO rules and a declaration of trade war against China [1] Group 1: Potential Actions by China - China may consider initiating anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against French wine, as the EU wine exports to China are projected to reach nearly $700 million in 2024, with almost half being French wine [1] - If France continues its unfriendly measures, China could respond with anti-discrimination investigations against France and the EU [1] - In the event of unilateral tariffs imposed by the EU, China is prepared to retaliate with equivalent tariffs on EU products [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. International Trade Commission has preliminarily ruled that imports of box-type semi-trailers and their components from Mexico, Canada, and China have caused harm to the U.S. industry, leading to upcoming countervailing and anti-dumping preliminary rulings by the U.S. Department of Commerce [1] - CIMC Vehicles (301039) is actively responding through expanding local production capacity in the U.S. to ensure supply chain stability, which may introduce uncertainty in the company's business outlook in the North American market [1] Group 2 - Recent stock price movements have shown volatility, with an initial rise due to the news but followed by a pullback, resulting in a net outflow of major funds; as of the latest data, the stock price has slightly increased, but the cumulative decline over five days exceeds 2%, indicating cautious short-term funding conditions [2] - Dongwu Securities has released a report recommending CIMC Vehicles and other leading companies, expressing optimism about their stable growth in both China and global southern markets; however, it notes that the weak North American market continues to exert pressure on short-term profits despite high growth in the company's new energy product sales [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has made a preliminary ruling on the "countervailing and anti-dumping" investigation regarding Van-Type Trailers and their subassemblies from Mexico, Canada, and China, indicating potential harm to the U.S. domestic industry [1][2] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation focuses on whether Van-Type Trailers exported from Mexico to the U.S. harm the domestic industry, including products from Canada and China [2] - The ITC's preliminary ruling was published on February 6, 2026, with a written report expected on March 19, 2026 [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) will continue the investigation, with preliminary results for the "countervailing" investigation due on March 27, 2026, and for the "anti-dumping" investigation on June 10, 2026 [1] Group 2: Company Response - The company, CIMC Vehicles, through its U.S. subsidiary Vanguard Global Trailer Holding and its three subsidiaries, is actively responding to the investigation [2] - A project team is collaborating with local experts to submit necessary materials as required by the ITC and DOC, while ensuring the stability of the existing supply chain for Van-Type Trailers subassemblies [2] - The company anticipates that the entire investigation process will take approximately 12-18 months to complete and finalize results [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued final rulings on anti-dumping and countervailing duties for erythritol products from China, significantly impacting the company's market operations in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Final Rulings - The final countervailing duty rate for the company is set at 8.63%, while other Chinese producers/exporters face rates between 4.54% and 8.12% [1] - The final anti-dumping duty for the company is 184.26%, a reduction of 266.38% from the preliminary rate of 450.64% [1] - The company can export through a specific separate rate channel (SRA) with an anti-dumping cash deposit rate of 84.95%, while other qualified producers/exporters have rates between 84.86% and 84.95% [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Response - The dual investigation ("double reverse") poses substantial pressure on the company's business expansion in the U.S. market [2] - The combined effective tax rate for exports through the SRA channel is 93.58%, which is expected to weaken the company's cost competitiveness in the U.S. market [2] - The company is taking measures to mitigate risks, including strengthening cooperation with trade channels that have specific separate rate qualifications and promoting non-involved new products to enhance export resilience [2]

Group 1 - The core announcement is that CIMC Vehicles' subsidiary, Vanguard Global Trailer Holding, along with three other companies, is participating in a countervailing and anti-dumping investigation initiated by the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding box semi-trailers and their components produced in Mexico, Canada, and China [2] - The investigation was officially launched on January 21, 2026, following a request from the U.S. Trailer Manufacturers Association, which claims that the high export levels of box semi-trailers from Mexico are putting pressure on the domestic industry [2] - The announcement indicates potential market adjustment opportunities for component suppliers from other regions that have advantages in product quality, technical compatibility, and supply chain resilience, due to the potential demand for alternative suppliers in the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The U.S. International Trade Commission is expected to make a preliminary ruling on industry damage by February 17, 2026, with the Department of Commerce planning to release preliminary rulings on countervailing and anti-dumping investigations on March 27 and June 10, 2026, respectively [3] - CIMC Vehicles has established a dedicated project coordination team at its headquarters to ensure the orderly delivery of necessary documents and materials for the investigation, given the supply chain relationship between Vanguard Global and CIMC's subsidiary in Qingdao [3] - Vanguard Global has set up a specialized project organization in the U.S. and hired a professional legal team to actively respond to the investigation, aiming to maintain a stable supply chain and accelerate the expansion of its component production capacity in the U.S. [3] - The investigation is currently in the investigation phase, with a final result expected to be announced in approximately 12 to 18 months [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has officially launched an anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigation into Van-type trailers and their subassemblies from Mexico, Canada, and China, following a petition from the American Trailer Manufacturers Coalition [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation is led by Vanguard Global Trailer Holding, a subsidiary of CIMC Vehicles, along with its three subsidiaries [1]. - The American Trailer Manufacturers Coalition includes three major trailer manufacturers: Great Dane LLC, Wabash National Corporation, and Stoughton Trailers LLC [2]. - The petition claims that the export volume of Van-type trailers from Mexico has been high, exerting market pressure on the U.S. domestic industry [2]. Group 2: Timeline and Process - The U.S. International Trade Commission is expected to make a preliminary ruling on industry damage by February 17, 2026 [3]. - If the preliminary ruling is affirmative, the Department of Commerce will issue preliminary determinations for the anti-subsidy investigation by March 27, 2026, and for the anti-dumping investigation by June 10, 2026 [3]. - The entire investigation process is expected to take 12 to 18 months to complete [4]. Group 3: Company Response and Strategy - CIMC Vehicles has established a project coordination team at its headquarters to ensure the orderly delivery of necessary documents for the investigation [4]. - Vanguard Global has set up a dedicated project organization in the U.S. and hired a professional legal team to actively respond to the investigation [4]. - The company aims to maintain the stability of its existing supply chain while accelerating the expansion of production capacity for Van-type trailers in two locations in the U.S. [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has officially launched an anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigation into Van-type trailers and their subassemblies imported from Mexico, Canada, and China, following a petition from the American Trailer Manufacturers Association, which claims that imports from Mexico are exerting market pressure on the domestic industry [1][4]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation was initiated due to high export levels of Van-type trailers from Mexico to the U.S., which are believed to be impacting the domestic market [1]. - The investigation encompasses multiple trade partners, including Canada and China, indicating a broad scope of scrutiny [1]. - The process of the investigation is expected to take approximately 12 to 18 months to complete and publish final results [4]. Group 2: Company Response - CIMC Vehicles plans to integrate its North American trailer business into Vanguard Global Trailer Holding in 2024, which will lead the response to the investigation [2]. - Vanguard Global has established a dedicated project organization in the U.S. and hired a professional legal team to actively address the investigation [3]. - The company aims to ensure the smooth operation of the existing supply chain for Van-type trailers while accelerating capacity expansion at two locations in the U.S. [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - The American Trailer Manufacturers Association consists of only three companies, while major players like Hyundai Translead and Vanguard Global are not part of this alliance, potentially placing them in a more advantageous position [4]. - The investigation may create a demand for alternative suppliers among U.S. manufacturers, presenting opportunities for suppliers with advantages in product quality, technical compatibility, and supply chain resilience [4].