1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The overall view of the log market is bearish. The spot price of logs has been continuously declining, the overseas market price has also significantly dropped, and the near - month contracts have declined due to delivery pressure before the delivery month. The influencing factors are as follows: the supply is neutral, the demand is bearish, the inventory is neutral, and the valuation is neutral [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to 2.013 million cubic meters in October [4]. - **Demand**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.03% [4]. - **Valuation**: Currently, the log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - **Investment View**: The overall view is bearish. The trading strategy for both unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. - **Main Data Summary**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.16% to 749; the total position increased by 7.36% to 25,666; the position of the main contract decreased by 4.96% to 14,519; the total inventory decreased by 3.13% to 287,700 cubic meters; the Shandong inventory increased by 0.45% to 199,500 cubic meters; the Jiangsu inventory decreased by 12.77% to 74,200 cubic meters; the total outbound volume increased by 8.65%; the New Zealand weekly shipment decreased by 30% [6]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Log futures declined this week. The reasons are the significant decline in spot prices during the off - season, which has fallen below the annual lowest level, and the approaching delivery month of the 01 contract, which has a certain bearish impact due to delivery pressure [8]. - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 25,666 lots, a 7.35% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main log futures contract was 14,519 lots, a 4.96% decrease from the previous week [11]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 12, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/850 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 710/770/940 yuan/m³. The prices of Jiangsu radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 670/730/800 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 720/760/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - **Shipment Volume**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6, and the total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to October. From November 29 to December 5, 2025, there were 7 vessels departing from New Zealand ports, with a total shipment of 260,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels directly shipped 260,000 cubic meters to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [25]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price in New Zealand port warehouses was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a 3.03% decrease from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong ports increased by 0.45% to 1.995 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 12.77% to 742,260 cubic meters [31]. - **Outbound Volume**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 33,900 cubic meters, an 11.51% increase from the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 27,100 cubic meters, a 3.44% increase from the previous week [35]. - **Timber Price and Processing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the timber price in Shandong was 1,220 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/m³; the timber price in Jiangsu was 1,240 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/m³. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 14.5 yuan/m³; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/m³ [37].

Group 1 - The first delivery of log futures in Guangxi was successfully completed by Guangxi Qinzhou Bonded Port Area Jushen International Logistics Co., marking a significant milestone in the region [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange approved the company as a designated delivery warehouse for log futures, making it the first of its kind in Guangxi [1] - The delivery process included inspection, loading, warehouse receipt generation, and settlement, all of which were completed according to standard procedures [1] Group 2 - The company is strategically located as the southernmost log futures delivery warehouse in China, providing a significant geographical advantage for importing logs from countries like New Zealand and Australia [2] - The designated delivery site serves as a critical link between the futures and spot markets, offering a "spot + futures" one-stop service that attracts timber traders and sources to Qinzhou [2] - This development is expected to help companies effectively manage price risks, reduce transaction costs, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the port's timber industry, enhancing Qinzhou Port's role as a key hub for the regional timber industry [2]

Core Insights - The successful completion of the first log futures delivery in Guangxi marks a significant milestone for the region and the company involved [1][4][6] Group 1: Company Achievements - Guangxi Qinzhou Free Trade Port Area Jushen International Logistics Co., Ltd. has become the first designated delivery warehouse for log futures in Guangxi, approved by the Dalian Commodity Exchange [4][6] - The company has achieved a "zero breakthrough" in the log futures delivery sector, indicating its entry into this market [6] Group 2: Industry Impact - The successful delivery is expected to provide a stable supply of raw materials for wood processing enterprises in Guangxi and the southwestern region, contributing to high-quality regional economic development [6] - As the southernmost log futures delivery warehouse in China, the company plays a crucial role in the import trade of logs from New Zealand and Australia [6] - The designated delivery site serves as a connection point between the futures and spot markets, offering a "spot + futures" one-stop service that attracts timber traders and helps control price risks while reducing transaction costs [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is generally loose due to the approaching off - season and the supply being relatively stable while demand may decline significantly under the influence of the summer real - estate off - season [4][39] - Although the domestic supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is high, suppressing the market, the import price is inverted, providing strong support at the bottom [4][39] - The pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. It is recommended to mainly adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [5][40] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - Supply side: In July, the log supply showed characteristics of "tight international supply, fluctuating domestic supply, and inventory accumulation". New Zealand's direct shipments to China in the first three weeks of July were only 920,000 JASm³, lower year - on - year. Domestic arrivals fluctuated sharply, with a cliff - like drop in the first ten - day period and concentrated arrivals in the last ten - day period. The total inventory at the end of the month was 3.29 million cubic meters, a 2.17% increase month - on - month [3][39] - Demand side: Construction demand was under continuous pressure. The fund availability rate was only 58.97% on July 22, and that of housing construction projects was as low as 52.1%, resulting in continuously low orders for construction timber. In August, due to the hot weather, it was the traditional off - season for real - estate and infrastructure construction, and demand might decline significantly [3][39] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Supply is generally stable with a slight decrease, but demand may decline significantly under the influence of the summer real - estate off - season, making the log market generally loose [4][39] - In terms of valuation, the domestic supply - demand fundamentals are loose, and the high inventory suppresses the market. The surge in delivery intention at the end of the month removes the possibility of a squeeze to some extent, suppressing the upward space. However, the import price is inverted, providing strong support at the bottom [4][39] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. Continue to mainly adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies. After the first delivery, the trading volume of the market is generally good, and issues such as the size difference, delivery efficiency, delivery storage capacity, and inspection standards in the delivery details have been resolved, basically removing the possibility of a squeeze [5][40] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [5][40] 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Radiation pine: Domestic spot prices showed regional differentiation, with import prices rising and finished timber prices remaining stable. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiation pine logs in Rizhao Port, Shandong decreased slightly from 750 yuan/cubic meter at the beginning of the month to 740 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 4 - meter medium - A radiation pine logs in Taicang Port, Jiangsu first decreased and then increased. The CFR price of radiation pine increased from 108.5 - 111 US dollars/JAS cubic meter in June to 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter in July [9][10] - Spruce and fir: Domestic spot prices rose at the end of the month, import prices continued to rise, and finished timber prices remained stable. The spot price of spruce and fir in Rizhao Port, Shandong increased from 1090 yuan/cubic meter at the beginning to 1150 yuan/cubic meter at the end of the month. The CFR price of spruce increased from 123 euros/JAS cubic meter in June to 126 euros/JAS cubic meter in July [11][12] - Log futures: The price trend was "rising first and then fluctuating", with the main contract price reaching a new high in the middle of July but showing differentiation at the end of the month due to delivery pressure. The first large - scale delivery was completed, and the delivery scope extended from coastal to inland areas [17][18] 3.2.2 Supply Slightly Decreases but Remains Generally Stable - New Zealand shipments: The total shipments in July were tight, with significant weekly fluctuations. The shipments in the first three weeks were only 920,000 JASm³, and the supply gap was not fully compensated [22] - Domestic arrivals: The arrivals were first depressed and then increased, with concentrated arrivals at the end of the month. The arrivals in the second week were only 177,000 cubic meters, and in the third week, they increased to 449,000 cubic meters [23] - Port inventory: It decreased slightly but remained high overall. The total inventory first decreased and then increased, with regional differences. Radiation pine dominated the inventory changes, and there was a continuous structural shortage [27][28] 3.2.3 Weak Real - Estate and Poor Business Operations Lead to Declining Downstream Demand - Construction demand: Real - estate development investment continued to shrink, with a 11.2% year - on - year decrease in the first six months. New construction area decreased, and the completion area improved limitedly. The sales and capital of real - estate enterprises were under pressure, and the demand for construction timber was affected [33][35] - Infrastructure investment: The growth rate of infrastructure investment declined from a high level. Although there were new large - scale projects, the new construction projects were weak, and the capital availability rate was low. The demand for timber varied regionally [35][36] 3.2.4 Uncertainty in Futures Pricing under the First Log Delivery is Resolved - The linkage between futures and spot prices has been significantly enhanced. The size difference has been gradually determined, and the DCE plans to control the size difference between futures and spot within 3% in the second half of 2025 [37]

Core Points - The article discusses the inspection process for timber species during the delivery of logs, detailing the responsibilities of buyers and sellers in the inspection and quality verification process [1][2][3] Group 1: Inspection Process - The inspection of timber species is initiated based on the buyer's request, and if the seller agrees, adjustments can be made [1] - If the seller does not agree with the buyer's claim, a designated quality inspection agency will conduct the inspection [1] - Buyers can submit up to three logs for species inspection within a batch, and the inspection fee is initially borne by the buyer [1][2] Group 2: Inspection Outcomes - If all three logs submitted for inspection are broadleaf, the delivery of that batch is terminated [2] - If at least one log is coniferous, other inspections and calculations proceed normally, and the logs must be stored at a designated location [2] - If the inspection results show that none of the logs meet the quality specifications, the delivery is terminated, and the seller bears the storage costs [2] Group 3: Compensation and Fees - For logs that do not meet quality specifications, the seller must compensate the buyer at a rate of 200 yuan per non-compliant log [2][3] - If one or two logs are submitted for inspection, the batch is still released, and compensation applies if the results are non-compliant [3]

Group 1 - The delivery unit for log futures contracts is set at 90 cubic meters, with a tolerance of ±3 cubic meters for each batch [1] - The quality description provided by the seller must include details such as species, form, length, and appearance defects of the logs [1] - Logs of the same inspection batch must be of the same species if the species listed is certain types of pine, while different species are allowed for other types of coniferous logs [1] Group 2 - The measurement of a single log's diameter is determined by a designated quality inspection agency [2] - The total volume of logs in an inspection batch is calculated by summing the volumes of individual logs that meet the delivery quality standards [2] - The average diameter of logs in an inspection batch is derived from the total volume divided by the number of logs, followed by calculations based on the average volume and specified length [2] Group 3 - The quality description issued by the seller at the time of delivery can serve as the basis for settlement quality adjustments [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs in China shows a stable and slightly increasing trend this week, but there is still pressure on the arrival of goods in June due to the high willingness of traders to receive goods at low foreign - market prices in May. The spot market is weak and stable, and the weak - balance pattern in the fundamentals continues. The current futures price has rebounded, and there may be differences in the futures price under the logic of delivery cost after the 07 contract enters the delivery month. It is recommended to mainly observe on the single - side trading, and pay attention to the changes in the monthly spread and participate in the reverse spread trading as the main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The prices of log 2507 and log 2509 decreased by 0.13%, while the price of log 2511 remained unchanged. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads all decreased by 1.0, and the basis of 07 and 09 contracts increased by 1.0 [2] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign - market quotes also remained unchanged [2] - Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 0.73 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly supply: The port shipping volume increased by 39.0 (24.17%) to 200.3 million cubic meters, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0 (13.79%) to 66.0 [2] Inventory - Weekly inventory: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 2.0 ( - 0.59%) to 339.0 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong increased by 2.0 (1.06%) to 191.50 million cubic meters, while the inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 1.5 ( - 1.35%) to 111.98 million cubic meters [2][3] Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily outbound volume in China increased by 0.03 (0%) to 6.31 million cubic meters. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong increased by 0.07 (2%), and that in Jiangsu decreased by 0.01 (0%) [3]