Report Date - The report is dated October 29, 2025 [1][5][8] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including copper, zinc, lead, etc., with most commodities expected to show oscillatory trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][7] - **Zinc**: Continuing to oscillate. The trend strength is 0 [2][8][10] - **Lead**: Overseas inventories are continuously decreasing, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][11] - **Aluminum**: Continuing to oscillate. Alumina is in short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength for all is 0 [2][13][14] - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and nickel prices are oscillating in a narrow range. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot tender price is at a high level, showing a strong - side operation. The trend strength is 1 [2][18][21] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is obvious bottom support. The trend strength is 1 [2][22][25] - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there is a risk of a decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][23][25] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][26][27] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, steel prices are oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][28][31] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][33][35] - **Coke**: Oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][36][38] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][37][38] Others - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][39][42] - **Para - Xylene**: In a high - level oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **PTA**: Oil prices have corrected, and valuations have declined. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weak, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][50][52] - **LLDPE**: Mainly oscillating. No trend strength provided [2] - **PP**: Stopping falling in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. No trend strength provided [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure. No trend strength provided [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading has weakened, and pressure is gradually increasing. No trend strength provided [2] - **Styrene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. No trend strength provided [2] - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. No trend strength provided [2] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is oscillating weakly in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Retreating in the short term, with continued increased volatility. No trend strength provided [2] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating and consolidating. No trend strength provided [2] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Rebounding in the short term due to positive demand feedback. No trend strength provided [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [4] - **Palm Oil**: The de - stocking in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower support. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans have rebounded, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal is rebounding and oscillating. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean No.1**: Oscillating on the strong side. No trend strength provided [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating weakly. No trend strength provided [4] - **Sugar**: Weak overseas and strong domestic. No trend strength provided [4] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton has increased, supporting the futures price of cotton. No trend strength provided [4] - **Egg**: Maintaining adjustment. No trend strength provided [4] - **Live Pig**: The sentiment in the spot market has declined, awaiting confirmation. No trend strength provided [4] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength provided [4]

数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国原木行业市场动态分析及投资潜力研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年4月中国原木进口数量为293万立方米，同比下降19.4%，进口金额为 4.66亿美元，同比下降27%。 近一年中国原木进口情况统计图 ...

近一年中国原木进口情况统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国原木行业市场动态分析及投资潜力研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年8月中国原木进口数量为211万立方米，同比下降24.5%，进口金额为3 亿美元，同比下降39%。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of mainstream delivery products of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of September 7, there were 10 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 6 going to mainland China and 4 going to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port decreased by 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 0.67 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. - As of the week of September 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [6]. - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 decreased by 1.1% compared to last week, and the monthly spread tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - The prices of mainstream radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 745 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 765 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 850 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 785 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 7, 10 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 6 bound for mainland China and 4 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea. It is expected that 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - Provided the specific shipping schedule data of New Zealand logs, including departure time, load, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.68 million cubic meters (down 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.12 million cubic meters (down 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week) [6][12]. - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1279 million cubic meters (down 0.0224 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port's was about 0.4407 million cubic meters (up 0.0111 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou Port's was about 0.3726 million cubic meters (up 0.0216 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port's was about 0.1021 million cubic meters (down 0.017 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0433 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0067 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 798 yuan/cubic meter, a 1.1% decrease from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 11 - 01 monthly spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 11 - 03 at - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 at - 6 yuan/cubic meter [18]. Price and Spread - Provided the spot price data of logs and downstream construction timber, showing that most prices remained stable compared to last week [21][23]. - Presented the regional price differences of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [24][26]. - Showed the price differences between different tree species and specifications, such as the difference between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [38][39]. Other - Analyzed other price - influencing factors, including freight rates and exchange rates. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [52][53].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market dynamics and investment potential of the Chinese log industry from 2025 to 2031 [1] Import Data Summary - In June 2025, China's log import volume reached 2.83 million cubic meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] - The import value for the same period was $430 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The company has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is generally loose due to the approaching off - season and the supply being relatively stable while demand may decline significantly under the influence of the summer real - estate off - season [4][39] - Although the domestic supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is high, suppressing the market, the import price is inverted, providing strong support at the bottom [4][39] - The pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. It is recommended to mainly adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [5][40] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - Supply side: In July, the log supply showed characteristics of "tight international supply, fluctuating domestic supply, and inventory accumulation". New Zealand's direct shipments to China in the first three weeks of July were only 920,000 JASm³, lower year - on - year. Domestic arrivals fluctuated sharply, with a cliff - like drop in the first ten - day period and concentrated arrivals in the last ten - day period. The total inventory at the end of the month was 3.29 million cubic meters, a 2.17% increase month - on - month [3][39] - Demand side: Construction demand was under continuous pressure. The fund availability rate was only 58.97% on July 22, and that of housing construction projects was as low as 52.1%, resulting in continuously low orders for construction timber. In August, due to the hot weather, it was the traditional off - season for real - estate and infrastructure construction, and demand might decline significantly [3][39] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Supply is generally stable with a slight decrease, but demand may decline significantly under the influence of the summer real - estate off - season, making the log market generally loose [4][39] - In terms of valuation, the domestic supply - demand fundamentals are loose, and the high inventory suppresses the market. The surge in delivery intention at the end of the month removes the possibility of a squeeze to some extent, suppressing the upward space. However, the import price is inverted, providing strong support at the bottom [4][39] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. Continue to mainly adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies. After the first delivery, the trading volume of the market is generally good, and issues such as the size difference, delivery efficiency, delivery storage capacity, and inspection standards in the delivery details have been resolved, basically removing the possibility of a squeeze [5][40] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [5][40] 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Radiation pine: Domestic spot prices showed regional differentiation, with import prices rising and finished timber prices remaining stable. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiation pine logs in Rizhao Port, Shandong decreased slightly from 750 yuan/cubic meter at the beginning of the month to 740 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 4 - meter medium - A radiation pine logs in Taicang Port, Jiangsu first decreased and then increased. The CFR price of radiation pine increased from 108.5 - 111 US dollars/JAS cubic meter in June to 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter in July [9][10] - Spruce and fir: Domestic spot prices rose at the end of the month, import prices continued to rise, and finished timber prices remained stable. The spot price of spruce and fir in Rizhao Port, Shandong increased from 1090 yuan/cubic meter at the beginning to 1150 yuan/cubic meter at the end of the month. The CFR price of spruce increased from 123 euros/JAS cubic meter in June to 126 euros/JAS cubic meter in July [11][12] - Log futures: The price trend was "rising first and then fluctuating", with the main contract price reaching a new high in the middle of July but showing differentiation at the end of the month due to delivery pressure. The first large - scale delivery was completed, and the delivery scope extended from coastal to inland areas [17][18] 3.2.2 Supply Slightly Decreases but Remains Generally Stable - New Zealand shipments: The total shipments in July were tight, with significant weekly fluctuations. The shipments in the first three weeks were only 920,000 JASm³, and the supply gap was not fully compensated [22] - Domestic arrivals: The arrivals were first depressed and then increased, with concentrated arrivals at the end of the month. The arrivals in the second week were only 177,000 cubic meters, and in the third week, they increased to 449,000 cubic meters [23] - Port inventory: It decreased slightly but remained high overall. The total inventory first decreased and then increased, with regional differences. Radiation pine dominated the inventory changes, and there was a continuous structural shortage [27][28] 3.2.3 Weak Real - Estate and Poor Business Operations Lead to Declining Downstream Demand - Construction demand: Real - estate development investment continued to shrink, with a 11.2% year - on - year decrease in the first six months. New construction area decreased, and the completion area improved limitedly. The sales and capital of real - estate enterprises were under pressure, and the demand for construction timber was affected [33][35] - Infrastructure investment: The growth rate of infrastructure investment declined from a high level. Although there were new large - scale projects, the new construction projects were weak, and the capital availability rate was low. The demand for timber varied regionally [35][36] 3.2.4 Uncertainty in Futures Pricing under the First Log Delivery is Resolved - The linkage between futures and spot prices has been significantly enhanced. The size difference has been gradually determined, and the DCE plans to control the size difference between futures and spot within 3% in the second half of 2025 [37]

Group 1: Silicon Material Market - The spot price of silicon material has increased, with polysilicon prices rising over 7% to surpass 45,000 yuan per ton [1][3] - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen by 12.4% week-on-week, with a price range of 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton [3][5] - The supply-demand relationship in the photovoltaic industry is improving, which is crucial for price stabilization [5] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - Cangge Lithium Industry has suspended production, leading to a more than 5% increase in lithium carbonate prices, approaching 70,000 yuan per ton [1][6] - The company plans to achieve a lithium carbonate production of 11,000 tons by 2025, with a projected net profit of 49 million yuan for the first half of the year [8] - The impact of Cangge Lithium's temporary suspension on the overall lithium carbonate supply is minimal, affecting less than 1% of the monthly industry supply [8] Group 3: Lumber Market - The main contract for lumber has seen a price increase of 4.16%, driven by reduced supply and low inventory levels [9] - The low shipment volume of New Zealand lumber has tightened market supply, contributing to upward price pressure [9] - Port inventories are at low levels, supporting lumber prices amid a supply-demand imbalance [9][10]