原油周报 缺乏驱动下的窄幅波动 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号： Z0016296 2025年7月25日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 WTI Brent Oman SC -1 0 1 2 3 4 24-7 24-8 24-9 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-1 25-2 25-3 25-4 25-5 25-6 25-7 M1-M2 M1-M3 -1 0 1 2 3 4 24-7 24-8 24-9 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-1 25-2 25-3 25-4 25-5 25-6 25-7 M1-M2 M1-M3 -2 0 2 4 24-7 24-8 24-9 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-1 25-2 25-3 25-4 25-5 25-6 25-7 M1-M2 M1-M3 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 24-7 24-8 24-9 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-1 25-2 25 ...

高盛：炼油产能吃紧将支撑柴油裂解价差持续高企 金十数据7月25日讯，高盛集团指出，尽管柴油炼油利润可能从当前极高水平小幅回落，但在全球加工 能力紧张的背景下，其价格仍将长期高于历史均值。分析师Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby等人在周四发布的报 告中表示，这种工业燃料近期表现强劲，全球库存持续下降而金融需求激增。欧洲炼厂意外停产，加上 委内瑞拉、加拿大和欧佩克+等地的馏分油原料原油供应短缺，进一步加剧了市场紧张。高盛分析师 称："我们预计柴油利润将从当前极高水平适度回落。"但鉴于炼油产能的结构性紧张持续存在，其价格 仍将"高于疫情前平均水平"。 ...

Group 1 - The global oil market is entering a new period of increased volatility due to unpredictable supply changes, misleading demand signals, geopolitical uncertainties, and deteriorating economic sentiment [1] - Recent abnormal fluctuations in diesel price spreads indicate that traders need a more comprehensive analytical framework to understand the market [1] - The traditional indicators, such as the diesel price spread, are failing to accurately reflect mid-term demand due to extreme weather conditions in Europe and North America [1] Group 2 - The refining industry is facing a capacity crisis, with global refining margins remaining at historically high levels despite concerns over an economic recession [2] - A total of 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in Europe is confirmed to be closing, including facilities in Grangemouth and several German refineries [2] - The impact of these closures has not yet fully reflected in current prices, indicating potential future price increases [2] Group 3 - The key observation point is whether the arbitrage trade from the Middle East and India to Europe will restart, serving as an early warning signal for regional supply tightness [3] - The phenomenon of "disappearing barrels" continues to perplex analysts, as the actual tightness in physical inventories far exceeds official supply-demand forecasts [3] - If U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela lead to further reductions in crude oil exports, it could trigger significant market disruptions this year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel market in China is experiencing a rebound after three months of decline, driven by increased buying at low prices and low inventory levels, alongside a stable international crude oil market [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gasoline prices have been rising since May 20, with the average wholesale price reaching 7714 yuan/ton as of June 3, marking a near one-month high but still within the year's low price range [2]. - Diesel prices have also shown an upward trend, with the average wholesale price at 6802 yuan/ton, approaching previous highs, although there are risks of a pullback at elevated levels [2][4]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, with many sales units actively pushing prices higher, although purchasing activity from downstream sectors may be limited at high price levels [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of diesel is tight in some regions, supported by low inventory levels, while gasoline demand has not seen substantial improvement despite some marginal recovery [4][6]. - The first batch of collective procurement prices for gasoline and diesel from Sinopec in Northeast China has increased, with gasoline prices rising by 50 yuan/ton and diesel by 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [5]. - The gasoline and diesel crack spreads have shown divergent trends, with gasoline experiencing a decline in consumption and a drop in crack spread, while diesel remains supported by low inventory levels [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The international crude oil market is expected to remain stable, but the upward momentum for gasoline and diesel prices may be limited due to weak demand and potential easing of tight supply conditions [8]. - Gasoline demand is anticipated to remain weak in June, with seasonal factors and competition from alternative energy sources impacting consumption [8]. - Diesel demand is also expected to decline, particularly with the onset of the rainy season in southern China and reduced agricultural demand in northern regions [8].