Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline on September 4, with major indices dropping collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.83% to 12118.7 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.25% to 2776.25 points. The STAR 50 Index saw a decline of over 6% [2]. Market Correction - The recent downturn is characterized as a normal short-term technical correction, with an expected decline of less than 10% and a brief duration. The primary reason for this correction is attributed to the rapid increase in the market, which rose over 700 points from 3200 to nearly 3900 points [4][5]. - The market's previous surge led to a significant accumulation of profit-taking positions, particularly in popular stocks, which contributed to the current sell-off [5][6]. Investor Sentiment - The market's rapid rise created an environment of heightened investor enthusiasm, leading to increased leverage and a record high margin balance of 2.3 trillion yuan. This situation also raised concerns about potential risks associated with such rapid gains [5][6]. - The current market sentiment reflects a collective expectation of a correction, resulting in panic selling across various indices [6]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor and communication equipment stocks, is experiencing significant sell-offs due to previous speculative trading without solid earnings support. This has led to a sharp decline in stock prices as market sentiment shifts [8]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic sector is showing resilience, driven by expectations of "capacity reduction and anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing overcapacity issues and reducing competition within the industry [10]. Investment Strategy - Investors holding speculative stocks are advised to take profits during this correction and consider reallocating to more stable, undervalued blue-chip stocks. Those who are currently at a loss should remain patient and wait for the market to stabilize before making further adjustments [9]. - The photovoltaic sector's rebound is seen as a potential opportunity, although caution is advised as overall market adjustments could still impact this sector [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has strengthened, and the short - term trend is bullish. The iron ore fundamentals have weakened, suggesting short - term range trading and medium - term short positions. Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a range. Ferroalloys' market sentiment is cooling, and prices will move within a range [3][7][10][14][18] Summaries by Variety Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: De - capacity and anti - involution drive the black series up, with strengthened market sentiment. The fundamentals change little, with high steel mill profitability, high hot metal production, rising rebar output, stable apparent demand, good overall steel export demand, and limited supply - demand contradictions. With basis repair and improved expectations, the short - term trend is bullish, with a price range of [3060, 3100] [1][4][5] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Output rises slightly, apparent demand drops slightly month - on - month, and inventory changes little. Supply - demand is generally balanced, export demand remains, and contradictions are limited. The upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment, and the short - term performance may be bullish, with a price range of [3190, 3230] [1] Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot metal production, which is expected to decline slowly later. The supply side sees the end of shipping volume surges but an increase in arrivals. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are making rigid - demand restocking. The overall supply - demand structure weakens month - on - month. Short - term range trading is recommended, and medium - term short positions should be laid out, with a price range of [720, 750] [1][8][9] Coke - Independent coking enterprise output has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise output remains high. Total inventory drops month - on - month, but the absolute level is high. Hot metal production rises month - on - month, ensuring raw material demand. Supply - demand changes little. Short - term market sentiment improves, but there is moving - average resistance above, and it may return to a range - bound pattern, with a price range of [1420, 1455] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal output drops slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines resume production in July, and later supply tends to increase. The upstream inventory absolute level is still high, spot trading improves, market sentiment generally improves, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 60 - day moving average, with a price range of [830, 860] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) - **Silicomanganese**: Last week, the fundamentals saw both supply and demand increase, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although hot metal production is running at a high level, actual demand may decline under pressure due to the arrival of the off - season. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and it will be under pressure before the fundamentals improve significantly, with a price range of [5550 - 5750] [1][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals see both supply and demand increase, and the cost side provides weak support for prices. As July - August is the peak coal consumption season, prices are expected to recover driven by costs. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories have plans to resume production later, and the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and real - world pressure will suppress the rebound height, with a price range of [5270 - 5460] [1][19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has strengthened, and it is expected to operate strongly in the short term. For rebar, the reduction of over - capacity and anti - involution drive the upward movement of the black series, and the market sentiment turns positive. The fundamentals of steel have little change, with high profitability of steel mills, high hot metal production, increasing rebar output, stable apparent demand, good overall export demand for steel, and limited supply - demand contradictions. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has changed little, supply - demand is relatively balanced, export demand remains, and the upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment [1][3][4]. - For iron ore, although the supply - demand structure has weakened month - on - month, the ore price remains firm. The demand for iron ore is still supported by steel enterprises' profits, and the supply is difficult to increase due to the end of shipping volume rush and port maintenance [1][6][8]. - For coke, the supply - demand changes are small, and it may return to a volatile state. The output of independent coking enterprises has decreased recently, but the output of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the absolute level is high. The increase in hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials [1][11][12]. - For coking coal, the supply tends to increase, and it may return to a volatile state. The domestic coking coal production has decreased slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production in July. The upstream inventory is still at a high absolute level, and the spot trading has improved [1][15][16]. - For ferroalloys, the market sentiment has improved, and the prices are expected to operate strongly. For ferromanganese, the price of manganese ore at ports is expected to be strong in the short term, but the actual demand may decline due to the off - season. For ferrosilicon, there are both production cuts and restarts in production areas, and the overall operating rate remains low, with relatively high factory inventory [1][18][19]. Summary by Variety Rebar - **Price Information**: Futures prices of rebar01, rebar05, and rebar10 are 3090, 3099, and 3076 respectively, with price increases of 11, 12, and 11. Spot prices in different regions range from 3110 - 3230, with some regions having price increases [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is high, hot metal production is high, rebar output continues to increase, apparent demand is basically flat, and overall export demand for steel is good, with limited supply - demand contradictions [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the context of basis repair and improved expectations, the market will operate strongly in the short term, with a price range of [3060, 3100] [1][5]. Hot - rolled Coil - **Price Information**: Futures prices of hot - rolled coil01, hot - rolled coil05, and hot - rolled coil10 are 3136, 3134, and 3208 respectively, with price increases of 8, 5, and 17. Spot prices in different regions range from 3140 - 3370, with some regions having price increases [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has changed little, supply - demand is relatively balanced, and export demand remains [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment, and it may perform strongly in the short term, with a price range of [3200, 3240] [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Futures prices of iron ore01, iron ore05, and iron ore09 are 707, 751, and 733 respectively, with price increases of 11, 10, and 11. Spot prices of different iron ore powders range from 620 - 757, with price increases of 10 [6]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The demand for iron ore is still supported by steel enterprises' profits, but the supply is difficult to increase due to the end of shipping volume rush and port maintenance [1][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Participate in the market within the range in the short term, with a price range of [725, 760] [1][9]. Coke - **Price Information**: Futures prices of coke01, coke05, and coke09 are 1491.0, 1535.0, and 1445.5 respectively, with price increases of 11.5, 28.0, and 3.5. Spot prices in different regions range from 980 - 1220, with some regions having price increases [11]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The output of independent coking enterprises has decreased recently, but the output of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the absolute level is high. The increase in hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials [1][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It may return to a volatile state, with a price range of [1320, 1455] [1][13]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Futures prices of coking coal01, coking coal05, and coking coal09 are 914.0, 939.0, and 856.0 respectively, with price increases of 22.5, 23.5, and 12.5. Spot prices in different regions range from 934 - 1210, with no price changes [15]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The domestic coking coal production has decreased slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production in July. The upstream inventory is still at a high absolute level, and the spot trading has improved [1][16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It may return to a volatile state, with a price range of [845, 875] [1][17]. Manganese Silicon (Ferromanganese) - **Price Information**: Futures prices of manganese silicon01, manganese silicon05, and manganese silicon09 are 5662, 5655, and 5624 respectively, with price decreases of 12, 14, and 18. Spot prices in different regions range from 5500 - 5550, with some regions having price increases [18]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: High - grade ore sources are relatively concentrated, and miners' price - holding sentiment is strong. There are both production cuts and restarts in production areas, and the operating rate in Yunnan has increased significantly. The actual demand may decline due to the off - season [1][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market sentiment has improved, and the price may operate strongly in the short term, with a price range of [5610, 5810] [1][20]. Silicon Iron (Ferrosilicon) - **Price Information**: Futures prices of silicon iron01, silicon iron05, and silicon iron09 are 5246, 5280, and 5270 respectively, with price decreases of 82, 82, and 74. Spot prices in different regions range from 5200 - 5250, with some regions having price increases [18]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: There are both production cuts and restarts in production areas, and the overall operating rate remains low, with relatively high factory inventory [1][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market sentiment has improved, and the price may operate strongly in the short term, with a price range of [5295, 5485] [1][20].