Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline on September 4, with major indices dropping collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.83% to 12118.7 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.25% to 2776.25 points. The STAR 50 Index saw a decline of over 6% [2]. Market Correction - The recent downturn is characterized as a normal short-term technical correction, with an expected decline of less than 10% and a brief duration. The primary reason for this correction is attributed to the rapid increase in the market, which rose over 700 points from 3200 to nearly 3900 points [4][5]. - The market's previous surge led to a significant accumulation of profit-taking positions, particularly in popular stocks, which contributed to the current sell-off [5][6]. Investor Sentiment - The market's rapid rise created an environment of heightened investor enthusiasm, leading to increased leverage and a record high margin balance of 2.3 trillion yuan. This situation also raised concerns about potential risks associated with such rapid gains [5][6]. - The current market sentiment reflects a collective expectation of a correction, resulting in panic selling across various indices [6]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor and communication equipment stocks, is experiencing significant sell-offs due to previous speculative trading without solid earnings support. This has led to a sharp decline in stock prices as market sentiment shifts [8]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic sector is showing resilience, driven by expectations of "capacity reduction and anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing overcapacity issues and reducing competition within the industry [10]. Investment Strategy - Investors holding speculative stocks are advised to take profits during this correction and consider reallocating to more stable, undervalued blue-chip stocks. Those who are currently at a loss should remain patient and wait for the market to stabilize before making further adjustments [9]. - The photovoltaic sector's rebound is seen as a potential opportunity, although caution is advised as overall market adjustments could still impact this sector [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has strengthened, and the short - term trend is bullish. The iron ore fundamentals have weakened, suggesting short - term range trading and medium - term short positions. Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a range. Ferroalloys' market sentiment is cooling, and prices will move within a range [3][7][10][14][18] Summaries by Variety Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: De - capacity and anti - involution drive the black series up, with strengthened market sentiment. The fundamentals change little, with high steel mill profitability, high hot metal production, rising rebar output, stable apparent demand, good overall steel export demand, and limited supply - demand contradictions. With basis repair and improved expectations, the short - term trend is bullish, with a price range of [3060, 3100] [1][4][5] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Output rises slightly, apparent demand drops slightly month - on - month, and inventory changes little. Supply - demand is generally balanced, export demand remains, and contradictions are limited. The upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment, and the short - term performance may be bullish, with a price range of [3190, 3230] [1] Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot metal production, which is expected to decline slowly later. The supply side sees the end of shipping volume surges but an increase in arrivals. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are making rigid - demand restocking. The overall supply - demand structure weakens month - on - month. Short - term range trading is recommended, and medium - term short positions should be laid out, with a price range of [720, 750] [1][8][9] Coke - Independent coking enterprise output has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise output remains high. Total inventory drops month - on - month, but the absolute level is high. Hot metal production rises month - on - month, ensuring raw material demand. Supply - demand changes little. Short - term market sentiment improves, but there is moving - average resistance above, and it may return to a range - bound pattern, with a price range of [1420, 1455] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal output drops slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines resume production in July, and later supply tends to increase. The upstream inventory absolute level is still high, spot trading improves, market sentiment generally improves, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 60 - day moving average, with a price range of [830, 860] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) - **Silicomanganese**: Last week, the fundamentals saw both supply and demand increase, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although hot metal production is running at a high level, actual demand may decline under pressure due to the arrival of the off - season. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and it will be under pressure before the fundamentals improve significantly, with a price range of [5550 - 5750] [1][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals see both supply and demand increase, and the cost side provides weak support for prices. As July - August is the peak coal consumption season, prices are expected to recover driven by costs. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories have plans to resume production later, and the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and real - world pressure will suppress the rebound height, with a price range of [5270 - 5460] [1][19][20]

| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 去产能反内卷带动黑色系上行，市场情绪转强。钢材基本面变化不大，钢 短期偏强 | | | 厂盈利水平较高，铁水产量仍然高企，螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本 | | | 持平，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好，供需矛盾比较有限。基差修复背景叠 | | | 加预期改善，行情短期偏强运行。【3060，3100】 | | 热卷 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 短期偏强 | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾有限。基本面变化不大，上行主要受情绪改善推 | | | 动，短期表现或偏强。【3200，3240】 | | 铁矿石 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 区间参与 | | | 供给端发货冲量结束，后期外端港口有检修，发货难增。整体供需结构环 | | | 比转弱，但矿价仍坚挺。短期区间参与【725,760】 | | 焦炭 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量仍然较高。总库存环比下降， 震荡 | | | 绝对水平偏高。铁水产量环比上升，对原料需求保障，供需变化不大 ...