出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜汪梦婷 9月4日，A股市场再度出现大幅调整，三大指数集体跳水。 截至收盘，上证指数跌1.25%，报3765.88点；深证成指跌2.83%，报12118.7点；创业板指跌4.25%，报2776.25点；此外，科创50指数跌超6%，芯片、 算力 集体大跌。 这已是市场连续第三个交易日下跌，引起投资者广泛关注与担忧：市场究竟怎么了？急速下跌主要出于什么原因？后市行情又将如何演绎？ 9月4日下午，搜狐财经特别连线前海开源基金董事总经理、首席经济学家杨德龙，就近日A股市场行情进行解读，并对科技、消费板块以及黄金等资产的投 资机会进行了展望。 杨德龙表示，本次下跌属于正常的短期技术性回调，回调幅度预计在10%以内，持续时间不会太长。对于回调的根本原因，他认为在于前期市场涨势过 急，"从3200点起步直至逼近3900点，大盘在短时间内上涨超700点，积累了大量获利盘"。 对于行情性质，他认为是"慢牛"、"长牛"。在他看来，这轮行情有望持续2-3年，不是短期脉冲式上涨。短期回调并未改变市场中长期向上趋势，急跌反而 为前期踏空的资金提供了良好的布局机会。 对于跌幅居前的科技板块，他认为属于"博傻"炒作后的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has strengthened, and the short - term trend is bullish. The iron ore fundamentals have weakened, suggesting short - term range trading and medium - term short positions. Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a range. Ferroalloys' market sentiment is cooling, and prices will move within a range [3][7][10][14][18] Summaries by Variety Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: De - capacity and anti - involution drive the black series up, with strengthened market sentiment. The fundamentals change little, with high steel mill profitability, high hot metal production, rising rebar output, stable apparent demand, good overall steel export demand, and limited supply - demand contradictions. With basis repair and improved expectations, the short - term trend is bullish, with a price range of [3060, 3100] [1][4][5] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Output rises slightly, apparent demand drops slightly month - on - month, and inventory changes little. Supply - demand is generally balanced, export demand remains, and contradictions are limited. The upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment, and the short - term performance may be bullish, with a price range of [3190, 3230] [1] Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot metal production, which is expected to decline slowly later. The supply side sees the end of shipping volume surges but an increase in arrivals. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are making rigid - demand restocking. The overall supply - demand structure weakens month - on - month. Short - term range trading is recommended, and medium - term short positions should be laid out, with a price range of [720, 750] [1][8][9] Coke - Independent coking enterprise output has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise output remains high. Total inventory drops month - on - month, but the absolute level is high. Hot metal production rises month - on - month, ensuring raw material demand. Supply - demand changes little. Short - term market sentiment improves, but there is moving - average resistance above, and it may return to a range - bound pattern, with a price range of [1420, 1455] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal output drops slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines resume production in July, and later supply tends to increase. The upstream inventory absolute level is still high, spot trading improves, market sentiment generally improves, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 60 - day moving average, with a price range of [830, 860] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) - **Silicomanganese**: Last week, the fundamentals saw both supply and demand increase, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although hot metal production is running at a high level, actual demand may decline under pressure due to the arrival of the off - season. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and it will be under pressure before the fundamentals improve significantly, with a price range of [5550 - 5750] [1][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals see both supply and demand increase, and the cost side provides weak support for prices. As July - August is the peak coal consumption season, prices are expected to recover driven by costs. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories have plans to resume production later, and the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and real - world pressure will suppress the rebound height, with a price range of [5270 - 5460] [1][19][20]

| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 去产能反内卷带动黑色系上行，市场情绪转强。钢材基本面变化不大，钢 短期偏强 | | | 厂盈利水平较高，铁水产量仍然高企，螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本 | | | 持平，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好，供需矛盾比较有限。基差修复背景叠 | | | 加预期改善，行情短期偏强运行。【3060，3100】 | | 热卷 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 短期偏强 | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾有限。基本面变化不大，上行主要受情绪改善推 | | | 动，短期表现或偏强。【3200，3240】 | | 铁矿石 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 区间参与 | | | 供给端发货冲量结束，后期外端港口有检修，发货难增。整体供需结构环 | | | 比转弱，但矿价仍坚挺。短期区间参与【725,760】 | | 焦炭 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量仍然较高。总库存环比下降， 震荡 | | | 绝对水平偏高。铁水产量环比上升，对原料需求保障，供需变化不大 ...