Core Viewpoint - The short-term uncertainty in the market remains high, but the medium to long-term outlook for precious metals prices still has upward potential due to various supportive factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent market liquidity recovery, a weaker US dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East have contributed to the stabilization and rebound of precious metal prices [1]. - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, with a slight acceleration in the pace of accumulation in January, which positively impacts gold sentiment [1]. - The most panic-driven selling phase in the precious metals market appears to be over, but caution remains due to upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including US non-farm payroll and CPI data [1][2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - CIBC forecasts a bullish outlook for gold, predicting prices to reach $6,000 per ounce by 2026 and $6,500 by 2027, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, safe-haven demand, and ongoing dollar depreciation [3]. - WisdomTree's analysis indicates that the significant sell-off in gold at the end of January was a reset of positions and volatility, not a reassessment of gold's long-term investment value [4]. - The recent drop in gold prices aligns with historical patterns where extreme declines are linked to shifts in monetary policy credibility and expectations regarding real interest rates and the dollar [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Gold prices are digesting fluctuations at a high level, and the structural support remains solid. If the macro data does not significantly reverse the loose expectations, gold still has a basis for an upward trend [1]. - Silver: Silver is adjusting following the gold price, and the elasticity logic has not been damaged. It still has relative profit - making space under the premise of high - level gold prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Current Situation**: After a significant fluctuation at the end of January, the gold price has been oscillating above $5000. The short - term pullback is mainly due to profit - taking and position re - balancing, without triggering systematic capital outflows [1]. - **Logic**: During the recent gold price correction, the ETF had only a small outflow of about 20 tons, which is more like a phased profit - taking. The demand from official sectors is still the core long - term support, as the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold holdings in January. Although the short - term interest rate path needs to be observed based on inflation and employment data, the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026 has not been falsified. The uncertainty of US foreign and security policies keeps the demand for safe - haven asset allocation high [1]. - **Outlook**: If the macro data does not significantly reverse the loose expectations, gold still has a basis for an upward trend [1]. Silver - **Current Situation**: After a rapid rise, silver has entered a high - level consolidation stage following the gold price. Short - term fluctuations mainly reflect the decline in risk appetite and profit - taking by long - positions [2]. - **Logic**: The follow - up attribute of silver to gold still exists, and its elasticity advantage has not been systematically weakened [2]. - **Outlook**: Silver still has relative profit - making space under the premise of high - level gold prices. If the macro - expectations tilt towards looseness and re - inflation, silver is expected to show high - beta characteristics again [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: Not provided in detail - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [43]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on February 9, 2026, is 4200.39, with a daily increase of 3.78%, a 5 - day increase of 0.91%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.84% [44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the international precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership and monetary policy stability [4][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices fell sharply, with spot gold dropping below the important psychological level of $5000 per ounce, experiencing a decline of over 7% [2]. - Silver saw an even more drastic decline, plummeting over 16% and falling below $100 per ounce [2]. - The futures market also weakened, leading to a systemic adjustment across other precious metals like platinum and palladium [2]. Group 2: Trigger Factors - The core trigger for this downturn was the market's reassessment of the Federal Reserve's new chairperson, Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump, which alleviated concerns about the independence of the central bank [4]. - The market had previously been worried about external interference in monetary policy, which had driven significant investments into gold and silver as safe-haven assets [4]. Group 3: Policy Expectations - Analysts noted a "policy expectation repricing," where the previous trading logic favored expectations of monetary easing and currency depreciation, leading to a surge in gold as a hedge against currency system risks [5]. - The shift towards expectations of central bank stability and policy independence has compressed the structural premium previously associated with gold [5]. Group 4: Macro Factors - Changes in dollar expectations have also played a crucial role in the gold price correction, as the previous year saw a weakening dollar supporting precious metals [5]. - With signs of dollar stabilization, the market's pricing of "one-sided dollar depreciation" has cooled, leading to profit-taking from high positions in gold [5]. Group 5: Market Structure - The significant gains in precious metals over the past year created a crowded trading environment, which intensified the current adjustment as core narratives shifted [6]. - The combination of concentrated positions and sudden changes in expectations led to amplified price volatility [6]. Group 6: Broader Market Impact - The decline in precious metals has also affected resource stocks and mining companies, with related ETFs showing notable pullbacks, indicating a systemic risk reduction across multiple markets [6]. - This downturn is viewed not as the end of gold's long-term investment logic but as a transition from a single narrative-driven market to one influenced by multiple variables [6].