10月30日，中美刚在釜山谈完，德国就"变了脸"，反应之快、态度变化之大令所有人都感到惊讶。 前几天，德国外长瓦德富尔还在硬气地对台海、南海等问题指手画脚，还取消了访华，中美谈完之后，他就迅速改变态度，把"访华"再度提上了日程，德国 总理默茨还直言访华没有前提条件。 看起来，德国还是得对"现实"低头了。 · 中美谈完了，盟友全"懵"了 自从特朗普向全球发起关税战之后，中美已经谈了5轮，特朗普对中国加征的关税一次次"展期"，特朗普加征100%关税的威胁也一次次"落空"。而在中美釜 山的元首会晤之后，加征关税更是直接暂停1年，"芬太尼税"还要取消，加上对中国相关制裁措施的暂停1年，美国的盟友全"懵"了：怎么谈来谈去，最后中 国这个"美国的对手"反而得到了最低的关税？ 大家都知道，自从特朗普挥舞起关税的大棒，全球各国都在"想办法"，不少国家都是通过对美国"妥协"的方式来换取关税的降低的。 比如日本和韩国，不仅要开放市场，还要对美国进行数千亿美元的投资——甚至特朗普还要求投资是"预付款"，才换来特朗普把关税降低到15%。 比如欧盟，这个美国最重要的盟友，又是给美国"好处"，又是试图"对等反制"，折腾了半天，最后特朗普 ...

中方的反制措施，尤其是更新了稀土出口管制，促使欧盟在近期举行的领导人峰会上形成了一致意见。法国和德国统一战线，主张考虑所有对华报复手段。 德国更是提出使用"反胁迫"机制，允许欧盟限制贸易、服务，甚至削减知识产权，限制外国直接投资和公共采购准入。许多人将这种措施视为"核选项"。虽 然这种法案从未在过去使用过，但现在却有可能针对中国。此举表明，面对中方通过稀土管制进行反制，欧洲显然束手无策。 德国要对中国使用"核选项"？事实上，问题的根源在荷兰，欧洲却反而要求中方不要扩大问题的范围，这种态度令人难以理解，甚至在此基础上，欧洲还提 出了第二个要求。欧洲主动站在前线，究竟意欲何为？在布鲁塞尔举行的欧盟领导人峰会上，德国为何提议考虑动用"核选项"？ 欧洲突然介入背后的原因有两个。首先，最直接的原因是担心自己会受到波及。欧洲的汽车产业极度依赖安世半导体的芯片，而美国已经有多家汽车厂因缺 芯停产，欧洲担心这种停产的影响会蔓延过来。尽管欧洲有一定的芯片库存，但数量有限，为了避免生产停滞，欧洲必须采取行动，施压尽快解决这一问 题。 其次，荷兰作为欧盟成员国，长期以来与中方存在一些矛盾。欧洲此次介入安世半导体的问题，也有其内在目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is set to discuss strategies regarding China's expanded rare earth export controls and the Netherlands' forced control over ASML's assets during the EU leaders' summit on October 23 [1] Group 1: EU's Response to China's Trade Measures - EU countries, particularly France and Germany, are advocating for a tougher stance on trade with China, with Germany suggesting the use of the "nuclear option" or "anti-coercion mechanism" in response to China's rare earth export controls [3][7] - The "anti-coercion mechanism," established in 2023, allows the EU to restrict trade and services, reduce certain intellectual property rights, limit foreign direct investment, and control public procurement access [5] Group 2: Germany's Trade Relations with China - Despite Germany's tough rhetoric, recent data shows that China has replaced the United States as Germany's largest trading partner from January to August this year, with trade volume reaching €163.4 billion, slightly above the €162.8 billion with the U.S. [9][11] - The rapid return of China as Germany's top trading partner indicates the strong economic interdependence between Germany and China, suggesting that attempts to weaken this relationship may be misguided [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent discussions between Chinese and European officials regarding export controls, particularly focusing on rare earth elements and the EU's response to China's measures [1][2][3] - Chinese Minister Wang Wentao emphasized that the recent export control measures on rare earths are a normal practice to enhance China's export control system and reflect its responsibility as a major country in maintaining global peace and stability [1][3] - The EU's Trade and Economic Security Commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, expressed understanding of China's export controls, citing national security concerns, while urging China to expedite the approval process for European companies' applications [1][2] Group 2 - The articles highlight the ongoing tensions in EU-China trade relations, particularly in light of the new rare earth export controls implemented by China on October 9, which require permits for the export of certain products and technologies [2][3] - There is a growing debate within the EU regarding its trade policy towards China, with countries like Germany and France advocating for discussions on potential retaliatory measures against China's export controls [4] - The introduction of the "anti-coercion mechanism" by the EU, which allows for trade restrictions and other measures, is seen as a significant step in the EU's strategy to respond to perceived threats from China [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that former President Trump is vocally opposing foreign digital regulations that he perceives as discriminatory against American tech companies while favoring Chinese firms [1][2] - Trump threatens to impose high tariffs and export controls on countries that enact digital taxes and regulations targeting U.S. tech companies [2][5] - The European Union (EU) has introduced the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act since 2022 to regulate the digital market and limit unfair competition from tech giants [5][12] Group 2 - EU officials have denied accusations that their regulations target any specific country, asserting that their laws apply equally to all companies operating within the EU [6][12] - The EU emphasizes that its regulatory measures are non-discriminatory and are based on democratic values, not subject to negotiation with other countries [6][12] - There is increasing pressure within the EU to activate the "anti-coercion" mechanism in response to Trump's threats, with some member states expressing support for this action [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is currently facing a strategic dilemma between yielding to the United States or seeking new partnerships in the East, amidst pressures from both the US and China [1] Group 1: Internal EU Dynamics - The EU is experiencing internal instability, with signs of division becoming increasingly apparent under the dual pressure from the US and China [1] - Ursula von der Leyen plays a crucial role but lacks the necessary strategic vision and decisiveness, severely limiting the EU's ability to act [1] - Emmanuel Macron's influence is notable, yet he struggles to effectively coordinate the EU's internal leadership and exert substantial influence over von der Leyen [1] Group 2: EU's Response to US Pressure - Von der Leyen's approach has been to delay implementing countermeasures, resulting in the cancellation of planned retaliatory tariffs on $21 billion worth of US goods [4] - The EU's strategy of forming a new trade alliance excluding the US and China, in collaboration with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), is ambitious but may not yield the desired results [5][7] - The EU's attempts to strengthen ties with relatively weaker countries like Indonesia, Japan, and Canada may not effectively counterbalance the US's power [9] Group 3: Trade Relations with the US - The EU is heavily reliant on trade with the US, exporting $605.8 billion and importing $370.2 billion in goods in 2024, which complicates its ability to confront the US [12] - The EU's key strategic industries are highly dependent on the US market, making it difficult to sacrifice any member state's interests without significant losses [12] Group 4: EU's Strategic Mindset - The EU's established strategy prioritizes addressing internal conflicts with the US before considering how to collectively respond to China, reflecting a mindset that views the US as an ally and China as an adversary [14] - This entrenched thinking hinders the EU's ability to navigate its current challenges effectively [14]

Core Viewpoint - The EU is currently in critical negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, with President Trump threatening a 30% tariff on EU products, prompting a response from EU leaders who are seeking to negotiate rather than retaliate aggressively [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariff Threats - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the postponement of retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US products, originally set to take effect on July 15, to early August, emphasizing a preference for negotiation [1][4]. - Von der Leyen stated that the EU will continue to prepare additional countermeasures while prioritizing negotiations with the US [1][7]. - The EU is planning to engage with countries like Canada and Japan to coordinate responses to the US tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Internal EU Reactions and Criticism - Some European business organizations and politicians criticized von der Leyen's approach as weak, suggesting that failure to respond effectively to Trump's tariffs would be a significant setback [1][4]. - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's threats and urged the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if negotiations fail [4][9]. - Italian officials and agricultural organizations warned that the proposed tariffs could have devastating effects on Italy's food exports, estimating direct losses of around €2.3 billion [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Negotiation Dynamics - Germany, being the largest exporter to the US, reported a 7.7% decline in exports to the US in May, highlighting the economic impact of the tariff threats [5][7]. - EU leaders are divided on whether to pursue a quick trade agreement similar to the UK's or to continue negotiations for a better outcome [4][9]. - EU officials believe that Trump's threats may be a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy change, with expectations that a reasonable solution can still be reached [4][5].

Group 1: EU and US Trade Negotiations - The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, 2025, which has caused significant concern within the EU [2] - EU leaders, including Commission President von der Leyen and Council President Costa, emphasize the importance of fair trade and express readiness to negotiate while warning of potential countermeasures [3] - French President Macron and other EU officials call for immediate action and preparation of credible countermeasures if no agreement is reached by the deadline [3] Group 2: South Korea's Trade Strategy - South Korea is seeking to negotiate tariff reductions with the US, inspired by the recent US-UK trade agreement [4][5] - The automotive sector is a focal point for South Korea, with exports to the US projected to reach $34.2 billion in 2024, accounting for 26.8% of total exports to the US [6] - Experts suggest that South Korea could leverage US needs in shipbuilding and LNG projects to negotiate better terms for automotive and semiconductor exports [6] Group 3: Economic Implications - A successful trade agreement between the EU and the US could stabilize supply chains and protect the interests of businesses and consumers on both sides [7] - Conversely, failure to reach an agreement could lead to significant economic losses for both the EU and South Korea, impacting key industries and overall economic growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - European countries expressed opposition to the U.S. announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods, emphasizing the need for unity and negotiation to protect mutual interests [1] Group 1: Reactions from European Leaders - French President Macron stated that the European Commission should demonstrate the EU's determination to defend its interests amid the current situation [1] - German Economy Minister Habeck, Dutch caretaker Prime Minister Rutte, and Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson also voiced their opposition to the U.S. tariffs, urging continued negotiations for a mutually beneficial outcome [1] Group 2: Potential Actions by the EU - If no agreement is reached by August 1, the EU should activate all available tools, including the anti-coercion mechanism, to prepare credible countermeasures [1]