深度分析：揭开欧洲政治内幕 说到现在的欧洲，大家都知道，形势非常严峻。俄乌战争打了这么久，局势就像一个无底洞，多少资金 投入进去都见不到尽头。欧洲各国财政捉襟见肘，根本无力继续提供援助。然而，乌克兰依然在不断请 求资金支持，怎么办呢？德国开始考虑其他方式。 德国总理默茨，这位一上台就展现出强硬风格的领导人，盯上了俄罗斯被冻结在欧洲银行里的约2100亿 欧元资产。大部分这些资金都存放在比利时的清算银行里，默茨看中这笔资金，把它当成了一个天赐的 机会。既然大家都没有钱支持乌克兰，干脆拿俄罗斯的资金来对付俄罗斯，岂不是一举两得？这样不仅 解决了资金问题，还能让莫斯科感到更大的压力。 大家好，欢迎来到今天的国际观察。我们常听到一句话：没有永远的朋友，只有永远的利益，这句话放 在今天的欧洲，真是再合适不过了。就在不久前的布鲁塞尔欧盟峰会上，德国总理默茨原本满怀期待， 准备利用被冻结的2100亿欧元俄罗斯资产来支持乌克兰，但让他没想到的是，法国总统马克龙突然站在 了反对派一方。 财政算盘：2100亿欧元的诱惑与隐忧 自贸协议：意外的二次背刺 除了俄罗斯资产的问题，欧盟和南方共同市场的自贸协定谈判也在布鲁塞尔峰会上成为焦点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Europe is providing substantial aid to Ukraine not merely as an act of generosity but as a strategic move to counter Russian military expansion and ensure its own security amidst economic pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Economic and Geopolitical Context - European countries are facing significant economic challenges, including soaring coal and natural gas prices, which have severely impacted manufacturing sectors, leading to layoffs and production cuts in major companies like BASF and Volkswagen [3]. - Despite these economic difficulties, Europe has chosen to increase financial support for Ukraine, reflecting a strategy of "short-term economic sacrifice for long-term security" [3][9]. - The energy transition in Europe is seen as a critical challenge, with leaders recognizing the need to reduce dependence on Russian energy sources to stabilize the geopolitical environment essential for economic recovery [3][11]. Group 2: Internal Political Dynamics - There exists a sharp contradiction within EU member states between political support for Ukraine and the need to maintain economic stability, exemplified by Belgium's cautious handling of frozen Russian assets [5][9]. - The Baltic states, particularly Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, have significantly increased their defense budgets, surpassing 3% of GDP in 2023, driven by heightened security concerns regarding Russia [5][9]. - Internal divisions within the EU are evident, with Hungary's opposition to aid for Ukraine creating obstacles for unified support, highlighting the complex balance of interests among member states [7][9]. Group 3: Strategic Independence and Future Outlook - As the U.S. shifts its focus towards the Asia-Pacific region, European leaders are increasingly advocating for "European strategic autonomy" to reduce reliance on American support and enhance their own defense capabilities [7][9]. - The ongoing conflict has prompted Europe to escalate economic sanctions against Russia, including freezing and confiscating Russian assets, despite the short-term energy supply challenges this creates for Europe [9][11]. - The transition to green energy is accelerating in Europe, with countries like Germany increasing investments in renewable energy sources, which is seen as a strategy to combat reliance on Russian energy and secure future economic independence [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - Europe is facing unprecedented challenges in 2025, including prolonged impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, changing US-European relations, and ongoing economic stagnation, necessitating a strategic and cognitive rebalancing for the future [13][14][22]. Group 1: European Challenges - The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict has strained European resources, with countries facing budget crises that limit their ability to support Ukraine effectively [14][15]. - Economic growth in the EU is weak, with only 0.4% growth in 2023, 1% in 2024, and an expected 1.4% in 2025, while major economies like Germany are projected to experience negative growth [16]. - The EU's reliance on Russian energy and markets has severely impacted its economic stability, compounded by increased tariffs from the US on EU products [16]. Group 2: Changing US-European Relations - The US has shifted its stance towards Europe, viewing it as an economic and ideological adversary, which has significant implications for transatlantic relations [17]. - The Trump administration's national security strategy reflects a growing disdain for Europe, suggesting a need for Europe to reassess its dependency on the US for security [17][19]. - The perception of the US as a diminishing ally has prompted European leaders to advocate for greater strategic autonomy, although this effort faces substantial internal and external challenges [18][19]. Group 3: Strategic Autonomy Efforts - European leaders are increasingly calling for reduced dependence on the US, with initiatives like the "Rearm Europe" financing plan aiming to mobilize €800 billion over the next decade for defense [18]. - The EU's commitment to strategic autonomy is complicated by internal divisions, with varying levels of threat perception among member states affecting collective defense spending [20][21]. - The rise of right-wing parties in key EU countries poses a threat to the unity required for effective defense integration and strategic autonomy [21]. Group 4: Need for Rebalancing - Europe must rebalance its relationship with the US to achieve true strategic autonomy, leveraging its economic and technological strengths while reducing military dependency [22]. - A focus on economic development alongside security needs is essential to avoid exacerbating social and political instability within Europe [23]. - The EU's approach to foreign policy must evolve from ideological rigidity to pragmatic cooperation, particularly in its dealings with major powers like China and the US [23].

Group 1 - The core issue is Europe's diminishing role in global diplomacy, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where Europe has been sidelined in peace negotiations [4][9][10] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe has provided over €187 billion in aid to Ukraine, which is comparable to Greece's entire GDP, highlighting the financial burden on European nations [6][6] - The absence of Europe in key negotiations, such as the recent talks between the US and Russia, underscores a significant shift in global power dynamics, with Europe feeling increasingly marginalized [4][9][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of Europe's 500-year dominance, which is now perceived to be ending, as emerging powers reshape global order [11][12][18] - European leaders are increasingly aware of their reliance on the US and the need to engage with China, as evidenced by upcoming high-level visits to China from various European leaders [30][33] - The tension between economic interests in China and security dependence on the US creates a dilemma for Europe, complicating its foreign policy and strategic autonomy [35][39][40] Group 3 - The article highlights the internal divisions within the EU, where different member states have varying priorities and strategies regarding foreign relations, making unified action difficult [42][47] - The phrase "if you are not at the table, you are on the menu" reflects Europe's current predicament, as it struggles to assert its influence in global affairs [47] - The future of Europe remains uncertain, as it grapples with whether to reclaim its position at the negotiating table or accept a secondary role in global politics [48]

一方面，它可能成为欧洲防务建设的"推进器"，服务于法国长期倡导的"欧洲战略自主"目标，让法国在 平衡对北约和美国的双重依赖与自主发展之间，获得更大的主动权——尽管新航母多项关键装备依赖美 国技术，可能削弱其"战略自主"的成色。另一方面，新航母将直接服务于法国的海外利益需要。其设计 宗旨明确包含"威慑、胁迫或干预任务"，这对拥有世界第二大海洋专属经济区的法国而言至关重要。法 国可能意在通过建造新航母展示其军力投放能力、核威慑能力及高端装备制造能力，而新航母的吨位、 核动力与电磁弹射等配置，也清晰释放出对标中美海军力量的信号——这既是对"戴高乐主义"独立自主 传统的延续，更彰显了法国主动谋求更高国际地位的雄心。 此外，将酝酿多年的航母计划正式落地，也可能是马克龙政府在执政中后期谋求转移国内矛盾、纾解执 政压力的关键策略。作为"大国重器"，航母能将法国追求的国家能力具象化，塑造危机意识下的国家团 结叙事，超越党派纷争，激发民众的民族自豪感与凝聚力，从而将国内舆论焦点从经济困境和社会矛盾 转移至外部安全议题，既缓解自身执政压力，也能让民众更易接受法国在俄乌冲突与欧洲安全问题上的 主张。 对外战略考量在马克龙宣布的此次 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in perception among America's close allies, who now view the U.S. as unreliable and a negative force on the global stage following recent diplomatic policy changes [1][2] - A majority of Canadians, Germans, and French respondents believe the U.S. poses a challenge to their countries rather than being a supportive ally, with notable percentages expressing distrust in the U.S. during crises [2][3] - The article notes that European leaders are actively trying to manage the increasingly strained bilateral relations with the U.S., with Germany accelerating defense spending reforms in response to U.S. policy unpredictability [3][4] Group 2 - The relationship between the U.S. and Canada has deteriorated sharply due to trade wars and aggressive rhetoric from the U.S., leading to significant economic consequences for Canadian industries [4] - Despite the negative perceptions abroad, nearly half of Americans still believe the U.S. supports global allies and is a trustworthy force, although there is a stark divide in opinions between Democrats and Republicans regarding the U.S.'s international image [4][5] - The article indicates a dramatic shift in Democratic voters' views on the U.S. as a positive global force, with only 58% holding this belief compared to 77% of Trump supporters, reflecting a growing partisan divide [5]

据法国《世界报》报道，新航母将采用核动力推进系统，排水量接近8万吨，舰长约310米、宽约85 米，大幅超越现役航母的4.2 万吨排水量、261米舰长和65米舰宽。新航母最高航速预计可达27节（约 50 公里/小时），能容纳超过2000名士兵，搭载30 架舰载机。在航空配置方面，新航母预计将搭载"阵 风"海军型战斗机、美国E-2D"先进鹰眼"预警机以及多型舰载无人机。该舰还将配备"阿斯特"系列垂直 发射防空导弹、可同时追踪多达 1000 个目标的"海火"相控阵雷达，以及近程防御系统。 本报驻法国特约记者 邵 琦 当地时间21日，法国总统马克龙在位于阿联酋阿布扎比、毗邻霍尔木兹海峡的法国军事基地宣布，法国 将建造一艘新航空母舰。据介绍，这艘新航母建成后将成为欧洲有史以来建造的最大军舰，并被纳入法 国核威慑体系的核心组成部分。法新社称，就在建造新航母计划公布之际，作为欧盟第二大经济体，法 国政府已经陷入预算僵局。法国民众因此质疑造船的钱要从哪里来。 总成本约为102.5亿欧元 阿联酋是法国在中东地区的重要战略合作伙伴，目前约有900名法军士兵驻扎该国。在与驻扎在阿布扎 比的法国军队共同庆祝即将到来的圣诞节时，马克龙 ...

Group 1 - Europe is facing severe challenges, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, soaring energy costs, and high inflation leading to political instability in some countries [1][3] - The cost of living has significantly increased, with bread prices in Germany rising by 40% and electricity bills in France doubling, causing hardships for citizens [3] - Major industrial companies like BASF are relocating to China due to high energy costs, while automotive giants like Volkswagen and BMW are reducing production capacity in Europe, leading to job losses and increased protests [3] Group 2 - Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has re-emerged as a significant voice, emphasizing that Europe's survival depends on its own unity rather than reliance on external powers [5][7] - Merkel criticized Europe's over-dependence on the U.S. and called for a reevaluation of energy cooperation with Russia, suggesting that Europe must find a way to stabilize its energy supply [5] - She advocated for stronger unity among EU member states and the importance of establishing new partnerships, particularly with China, to ensure Europe's survival [5][7] Group 3 - Merkel's influence stems from her past leadership during crises, where she successfully navigated challenges like the Eurozone crisis and Brexit, earning her high regard in Europe [7] - Current European leaders are beginning to echo Merkel's calls for strategic autonomy, with French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz showing openness to reevaluating relations with China [7] - Merkel's recent statements have sparked discussions among European leaders about the need for unity and self-reliance, highlighting the importance of addressing internal challenges rather than relying solely on external allies [7]

美欧关系的裂痕，已经不是一天两天了，但沉寂多年的默克尔站了出来，话不多，但句句戳在欧洲的痛点上。她指出，美国太傲慢了，欧洲不能再被牵着鼻 子走了。 她的发声，不仅是对美国的质问，更是对整个欧洲的一次提醒：靠山不再稳固，欧洲得学会自己站稳。 而这一次，默克尔的"中间药方"，似乎正朝着中国最期待的方向走去。 要说欧洲最近几年过得怎么样，用一个字形容就是"难"。 俄乌冲突的战火持续了四年，欧洲掏了大把的钱支持乌克兰，可战争没完没了，能源价格却飙了个天价，直接把企业的日子压得喘不过气来。 德国的一些制造业巨头，干脆把工厂搬去了别的国家。就算欧洲人再嘴硬，也不得不承认，自己的产业链已经开始动摇了。 这种危机可不是短时间内能解决的，连默克尔都说，这是整个欧洲的"长期问题"。 可偏偏在这个时候，美国的态度也越来越强硬，不仅不愿意再给欧洲"免费安全保障"，还用贸易关税当武器，逼着欧洲在对华政策上跟着它的节奏走。 尤其是在高科技领域，美国想拉着欧洲一起给中国设限，但欧洲的很多国家更愿意低头做生意。这种既想赚钱又不想得罪美国的局面，直接让欧洲处在了一 个左右为难的尴尬位置。 说到中欧关系，过去几年其实也不太平。虽然中国和欧洲一直 ...

Core Viewpoint - Merkel's recent statements emphasize the need for Europe to assert its independence from the U.S. and to unify in the face of external pressures, particularly regarding trade, security, and immigration issues [1][3][9]. Group 1: U.S. Relations - Merkel expressed a strong stance against U.S. pressure, particularly regarding trade tariffs, indicating that the U.S.-Germany divide has reached a critical point [3]. - She criticized the U.S. for attempting to dominate European security through NATO and emphasized that Germany will not compromise on energy security and industrial interests [3][6]. - Merkel's remarks signal a shift towards European autonomy, urging European nations to resist U.S. bullying and to stand firm on their own interests [3][7]. Group 2: Energy Policy - Merkel addressed the long-standing criticism of Germany's reliance on Russian gas, clarifying that the Nord Stream pipeline agreements were made under previous administrations due to the high costs of alternative fuels [4]. - She defended the use of natural gas as a transitional energy source towards renewable energy, arguing that nuclear energy is not essential for achieving climate goals [4]. Group 3: Immigration Issues - Merkel reiterated her 2015 commitment to managing immigration, stating that Europe must secure its external borders while recognizing that prosperity and rule of law attract migrants [4]. - She warned that merely focusing on immigration issues will not suffice to counter the rise of far-right parties, advocating for practical solutions instead [4]. Group 4: Relations with Russia - Merkel maintained a pragmatic approach towards Russia, acknowledging the importance of dialogue with Putin while cautioning against completely severing ties [6]. - She reiterated her opposition to Ukraine's NATO membership, suggesting that relying on NATO for Ukraine's protection is unrealistic, which serves as a reminder for European diplomacy amid the ongoing conflict [6]. Group 5: European Unity - Merkel's return to the political scene comes at a critical time for Germany and the EU, with internal divisions and external pressures from the U.S. [6][9]. - She emphasized the necessity for Europe to unite and not allow the U.S. to divide individual countries, particularly in areas like AI regulation [6][9]. - Merkel's leadership style, characterized by pragmatism and consensus-building, is seen as essential for navigating the current European challenges [9].