Core Viewpoint - Recent clinical results have led to new considerations regarding the prospects of oral weight loss medications, with concerns raised about their effectiveness compared to injectable formulations [4][5]. Injectable Drugs Remain Dominant - By 2030, oral therapies are expected to capture about 25% of the global anti-obesity drug market, but injectable peptides are likely to maintain dominance in the U.S. market due to patient and physician preferences for maximum weight loss [5]. - William Blair predicts that 80-90% of Viking's VK2735 revenue will come from subcutaneous injections, with oral formulations contributing relatively little [5]. Advantages of Oral Small Molecules - In developing countries with inadequate infrastructure, oral small molecules may have advantages as they do not require cold chain storage, making them easier to distribute and consume [6]. Clinical Results and Benchmark Discrepancies - Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide injection) has set a benchmark for weight loss at 12-13% placebo-adjusted weight loss, while Eli Lilly's orforglipron only achieved 9.1% after 72 weeks, leading to a significant stock price drop [7][10]. - VK2735 showed a 10.9% placebo-adjusted weight loss in 13 weeks, but high patient dropout rates raise concerns about tolerability [10]. Competition Between Small Molecules and Peptides - Key candidates include Novo Nordisk's high-dose oral semaglutide, Eli Lilly's orforglipron, and Viking's oral VK2735, with differences in manufacturing, storage, and usage impacting market performance [11]. - Novo Nordisk's high-dose oral semaglutide demonstrated an average weight loss of 16.6%, maintaining strong market interest [11]. Data Interpretation and Trial Duration Differences - Analysts caution against direct comparisons between trials due to varying durations; VK2735's data covers only 13 weeks, while others span longer periods [12]. - Early data should not be directly compared to long-term results, as weight loss efficacy often stabilizes after 30 weeks [12]. Market Dynamics and Future Competition - The industry is closely monitoring whether oral therapies can truly change market dynamics, with Novo Nordisk leading in efficacy and supply capabilities [14]. - Eli Lilly plans to submit a registration application for orforglipron within the year, while Viking is exploring further development paths [14]. Conclusion - The emergence of oral weight loss medications adds a new dimension to the anti-obesity market, but injectable formulations remain the core choice in developed markets [15]. - The ultimate market dynamics will depend on efficacy, tolerability, and patient adherence as more competitors enter the field [15].

东方IC 进一步来讲，礼来旗下两款药物成为业绩增长的驱动力。其中，糖尿病治疗药物Mounjaro当季营收近52 亿美元，同比增长68%；减重药Zepbound单季销售额达33.8亿美元，同比激增172%。 来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】当地时间8月7日，美国制药企业礼来公司发布了2025年第二季度财报。财报显 示，第二季度，礼来实现营收达155.6亿美元，超出华尔街预期的146.9亿美元；净利润为56.6亿美元， 合每股6.29美元，而去年同期为29.7亿美元，合每股3.28美元。此外，剔除一次性无形资产相关项目 后，公司调整后每股收益为6.31美元，超出市场预期的5.57美元。 基于此，礼来上调了全年业绩预期，预计2025年全年调整后每股收益为21.75至23美元，较此前预估的 20.78至22.28美元有所上调；预计今年的年销售额将在600亿至620亿美元之间，高于此前580亿至610亿 美元的区间。而分析师此前预计，礼来2025年的营收约为600亿美元，每股盈利为21.74美元。 虽然礼来业绩报告向好，不过当地时间8月7日，其股价收跌14.14%。消息面上，礼来公布的最新临床 数据显示，在超过30 ...

消息面上，礼来公布的最新临床数据显示，在超过3000名肥胖或至少伴有一种体重相关合并症的超重但 无糖尿病的成人中，每日服用一次的GLP-1口服减重药Orforglipron，在72周用药时，最高剂量组平均减 重12.4kg，减重幅度达12.4%，这一结果未达市场预期。 （文章来源：北京商报） 北京商报讯（记者丁宁）8月7日，礼来美股盘中一度跌超14%。 ...

消息面上，礼来公布的最新临床数据显示，在超过3000名肥胖或至少伴有一种体重相关合并症的超重但 无糖尿病的成人中，每日服用一次的GLP-1口服减重药Orforglipron，在72周用药时，最高剂量组平均减 重12.4kg，减重幅度达12.4%，这一结果未达市场预期。 北京商报讯（记者 丁宁）8月7日，礼来美股盘中一度跌超14%。 ...