摩根资产管理资深环球市场策略师朱超平认为，年初至今，全球风险资产表现强劲，在企业盈利韧性与 科技创新的双重支撑下，全球公募基金市场的长线回报前景依然乐观。特别值得关注的是东亚市场的公 司治理改革浪潮，中国、韩国等市场的企业正通过提升治理水平、加大股份回购、增强信息透明度等举 措改善资本回报，推动企业策略与股东利益深度对齐。 （文章来源：新华财经） "中国A股长期回报前景良好，以美元计价，在未来10-15年预计年化回报率为7.7%。"摩根资产管理环 球多资产策略师盛楠表示，这一预期主要基于三大驱动因素：一是经济增长的长期韧性、盈利增长的韧 性与风险因素的逐步明朗化，为风险资产提供了上行空间；二是更有力的增强股东回报政策，包括鼓励 股份回购、强化现金分红等政策或有望支持A股长期回报；三是估值的潜在空间，随着公司治理的持续 优化以及国际投资者对中国资产配置的逐步加深，A股市场估值有望迎来重估。 针对资产配置的优化方向，盛楠表示，回顾资本市场三十年演变，将另类资产纳入投资组合已成为提升 收益的有效路径。这类资产不仅能增厚潜在回报、平抑组合波动，更能显著提升组合的夏普比率 （Sharpe Ratio），优化风险收益结构 ...

全球最大规模资管巨头贝莱德公司的最新调查显示，管理着23万亿美元资产的全球保险公司正计划进一 步增加私人市场持股，将其作为平滑长期回报的战略举措。此次调查覆盖463位保险业高管，其中93% 的受访者表示，预计未来12个月内将根据市场走势增加对私募资产的持仓，仅3%的高管预计会减少私 人投资。投资级私募信贷——包括基础设施债务和私募债券等细分领域——仍是投资者最为青睐的资产 类别。 近年来，保险公司持续积极拥抱另类资产，而私募股权公司通过收购保险公司推动私人信贷增长的趋 势，已引发立法者关注。他们指出，这个规模达1.7万亿美元的市场存在潜在风险，包括违约风险、私 人债务工具评级可能被虚高，以及相比银行更少的报告要求等问题。 调查发现，尽管大型保险公司——尤其是人寿保险公司——多年来已在私人信贷领域投入大量资金，但 一些规模较小的公司如今也开始转变方向，大幅增加另类资产配置。 自2008年金融危机后利率长期接近零水平以来，保险公司便更多转向私募市场寻求收益。埃里克森指 出，这引发了市场疑问：若利率环境变化，保险公司是否会减持这些资产? 而过去几年的加息周期已为这一问题提供了"响亮的答案"——保险公司不仅未削减，反 ...

Market Overview - Global risk assets are showing significant differentiation under the dual narrative of "tariffs + interest rate cuts" [1] - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, with the South Korean Composite Index leading with a 33.28% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Germany's DAX follow with increases of 24.14% and 19.77%, respectively [1] - The US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq and S&P 500, has seen increases of 8.32% and 7.10% [1] - A-shares in China have also performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 7.93% and 6.65% [1] Bond Market - Chinese government bond yields have shown a stable trend, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between approximately 1.66% and 1.75% [1] - In contrast, the US 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from 4.37% in early April to 4.22% by August 5, indicating rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Currency Market - The US dollar has begun to decline, with the dollar index dropping from 103.46 in March to 98.76 by August 5, a significant decrease [1] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is stable around 7.18, while the USD/JPY has depreciated to 147.18 [1] - The USD has appreciated against the Euro, with the exchange rate at 0.86 [1] Alternative Assets - Gold has performed exceptionally well, with the London spot gold price rising from approximately $3000/oz at the beginning of the year to $3375.30/oz by August 5, a 25.49% increase [2] - The oil market is under pressure, with ICE Brent crude oil down by 9.32% year-to-date [2] Family Office Trends - Global family offices are adjusting their risk tolerance and return expectations due to increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [2][3] - Domestic family offices prioritize "preservation of value," shifting from "outpacing inflation" to "not losing is gaining" [3] - Overseas family offices are more open to single-digit returns in the current market environment [3] Asset Allocation - According to UBS's latest report, family offices plan to reduce cash holdings to only 6% by 2025, while increasing investments in alternative assets, particularly private debt [4] - There is a notable increase in the allocation to fixed income and cash-like assets, as well as a rise in consultations regarding family trusts and insurance products [4] - Family offices are extending their due diligence periods for private equity investments, focusing more on cash flow and dividend terms [4] Regional Asset Distribution - Family office wealth is primarily concentrated in North America and Western Europe, with 80% allocated to developed market stocks and bonds [6] - The allocation to North America is projected to be 53% in 2025, a slight increase from the previous year [6] - There is a gradual shift in investment focus, with some family offices reallocating from the US to European markets [6] Investment Opportunities - There is a growing interest in the Greater China region, with 19% of global family offices planning to increase investments there, up 3 percentage points from 2024 [7] - Future investment directions are expected to focus on emerging technologies, including pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [7] - Domestic family offices are increasingly looking overseas for high returns, with a notable rise in interest towards regions like Singapore, Hong Kong, and emerging markets [8]

Market Performance - Global risk assets are showing significant differentiation under the dual narrative of "tariffs + interest rate cuts" [1] - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, with the South Korean Composite Index leading with a 33.28% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Germany's DAX have increased by 24.14% and 19.77% respectively, while US indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500 have risen by 8.32% and 7.10% [1] - A-shares have also performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 7.93% and 6.65% respectively [1] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong has seen a remarkable increase of 83.25% [1] Bond Market - Chinese government bond yields have shown a stable trend, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between approximately 1.66% and 1.75% [1] - In contrast, US 10-year Treasury yields have decreased from 4.37% in early April to 4.22% by August 5, indicating rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Currency Market - The US dollar has been on a downward trend, with the dollar index falling from 103.46 on March 19 to 98.76 on August 5 [1] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is stable around 7.18, while the USD/JPY has depreciated to 147.18 and the USD/EUR has appreciated to 0.86 [1] Alternative Assets - Gold has performed exceptionally well, with the London spot gold price rising from approximately $3000/oz at the beginning of the year to $3375.30/oz by August 5, marking a 25.49% increase [2] - Conversely, the oil market is under pressure, with ICE Brent crude oil down by 9.32% year-to-date [2] Family Office Trends - Family offices are becoming more conservative in their investment strategies due to increasing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3] - Domestic family offices prioritize "preservation of value," shifting their focus from "beating inflation" to "not losing is gaining" [3] - Overseas family offices are still seeking higher returns, with single-digit growth now being acceptable in the current market environment [3] Asset Allocation - According to UBS's latest report, family offices are reducing cash holdings, with only 6% planned for cash by 2025, while increasing investments in private debt to enhance portfolio returns [4] - There is a notable increase in fixed income and cash-like assets, as well as a rise in consultations for "safety net" tools like family trusts and large deposits [4] - The due diligence period for private equity has lengthened, with stricter requirements for cash flow and dividend terms [4] Global Asset Allocation Shifts - Family offices' wealth is primarily concentrated in North America and Western Europe, with 80% allocated to developed market stocks and bonds [6] - The allocation to North America is projected to be 53% in 2025, a slight increase from the previous year, while the Asia-Pacific region's allocation has decreased to 7% [6] - Some family offices are beginning to adjust their risk exposure to the US market, with a shift of stock allocations from the US to Europe [6] Investment Focus in Asia-Pacific - There is a growing interest in the Greater China region, with 19% of global family offices planning to increase investments there, up 3 percentage points from 2024 [7] - Future investment directions are expected to focus on emerging technologies, including pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [7] Overseas Investment Trends - Domestic family offices are increasingly seeking high returns overseas, with a consensus on diversifying market risks [8] - There is a noticeable increase in asset allocation demand towards Hong Kong and emerging regions [8] - Clients are also paying attention to cross-border tax implications related to overseas investments [8]