Core Insights - The fixed income and derivatives markets in 2025 were primarily driven by significant political, economic, operational, and climate risk events, with ongoing technological transformations reshaping trading and investment operations across financial institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Market volatility in 2025 was influenced by various factors, including the rapid changes in tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, and economic events such as government budgets, inflation data, and interest rate fluctuations [3]. - Concerns regarding artificial intelligence (AI) investments not delivering expected short-term returns led to periodic disruptions in both stock and bond markets, with fears that substantial AI-related expenditures could erode profitability [2]. - Despite the turbulent environment, the overall issuance of corporate and municipal bonds remained strong, indicating resilience in the fixed income market [3]. Group 2: Private Debt Market - The global private debt market has expanded since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by tighter bank lending regulations, and is now allowing participation from affluent individual investors [4]. - Recent high-profile defaults in the private credit market have raised concerns about a potential wave of defaults due to economic and market volatility [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The electronic trading of fixed income markets has progressed, with 50% of U.S. investment-grade bond trading now conducted electronically, generating vast amounts of market data for financial institutions [6]. - Financial institutions are leveraging cloud-based market data to develop new trading models and execution strategies [6]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Asian investors are increasingly viewing U.S. dollar-denominated debt as a strategic asset due to concerns about tariff impacts on regional economic growth, with U.S. Treasuries, asset-backed securities (ABS), mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and over-the-counter derivatives being popular choices [7]. Group 5: Climate Impact - Climate change events, such as the California wildfires in January 2025, have ongoing effects on market pricing, with analysts assessing the long-term impact of weather events on the repayment risks of municipal and corporate bonds [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Many trends observed in 2025, including those that caused significant market volatility, are expected to continue influencing the securities market in 2026, presenting ongoing pricing challenges for financial services engaged in low liquidity bond and derivatives trading [8].

Market Overview - Global risk assets are showing significant differentiation under the dual narrative of "tariffs + interest rate cuts" [1] - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, with the South Korean Composite Index leading with a 33.28% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Germany's DAX follow with increases of 24.14% and 19.77%, respectively [1] - The US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq and S&P 500, has seen increases of 8.32% and 7.10% [1] - A-shares in China have also performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 7.93% and 6.65% [1] Bond Market - Chinese government bond yields have shown a stable trend, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between approximately 1.66% and 1.75% [1] - In contrast, the US 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from 4.37% in early April to 4.22% by August 5, indicating rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Currency Market - The US dollar has begun to decline, with the dollar index dropping from 103.46 in March to 98.76 by August 5, a significant decrease [1] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is stable around 7.18, while the USD/JPY has depreciated to 147.18 [1] - The USD has appreciated against the Euro, with the exchange rate at 0.86 [1] Alternative Assets - Gold has performed exceptionally well, with the London spot gold price rising from approximately $3000/oz at the beginning of the year to $3375.30/oz by August 5, a 25.49% increase [2] - The oil market is under pressure, with ICE Brent crude oil down by 9.32% year-to-date [2] Family Office Trends - Global family offices are adjusting their risk tolerance and return expectations due to increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [2][3] - Domestic family offices prioritize "preservation of value," shifting from "outpacing inflation" to "not losing is gaining" [3] - Overseas family offices are more open to single-digit returns in the current market environment [3] Asset Allocation - According to UBS's latest report, family offices plan to reduce cash holdings to only 6% by 2025, while increasing investments in alternative assets, particularly private debt [4] - There is a notable increase in the allocation to fixed income and cash-like assets, as well as a rise in consultations regarding family trusts and insurance products [4] - Family offices are extending their due diligence periods for private equity investments, focusing more on cash flow and dividend terms [4] Regional Asset Distribution - Family office wealth is primarily concentrated in North America and Western Europe, with 80% allocated to developed market stocks and bonds [6] - The allocation to North America is projected to be 53% in 2025, a slight increase from the previous year [6] - There is a gradual shift in investment focus, with some family offices reallocating from the US to European markets [6] Investment Opportunities - There is a growing interest in the Greater China region, with 19% of global family offices planning to increase investments there, up 3 percentage points from 2024 [7] - Future investment directions are expected to focus on emerging technologies, including pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [7] - Domestic family offices are increasingly looking overseas for high returns, with a notable rise in interest towards regions like Singapore, Hong Kong, and emerging markets [8]

Group 1 - UBS's report indicates that family offices are gradually reducing cash holdings and increasing interest in gold, precious metals, and private debt [1][2] - 19% of global family offices plan to increase investments in the Greater China region, up 3 percentage points from 2024, with 30% in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting a growing interest in this market [1] - The preference for the Greater China region is attributed to China's robust economic growth, expanding consumer market, and rapid development in technology innovation [1] Group 2 - Family offices are expected to reduce cash allocation to 6% by 2025, reflecting a shift towards assets with growth potential, particularly in developed market equities [2] - Interest in private debt has significantly increased among family offices, aiming to enhance overall portfolio returns through diversification [3] - Approximately one-third of family offices plan to increase allocations to gold and precious metals, indicating a rising demand for risk-hedging assets [3] Group 3 - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand, reaching 1249 tons in Q2 2025, driven by strong investment inflows amid geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Family offices are balancing investments between technology stocks and precious metals, indicating a strategy to capture growth opportunities while hedging against risks [4] - The long-term low-interest rate environment is pushing family offices to explore non-traditional investment avenues, including private equity and infrastructure [5] Group 4 - 45% of Middle Eastern family offices plan to increase investments in the Greater China region over the next five years, highlighting the region's growing appeal [7] - China and India are the most focused markets for family offices in the next 12 months, with 39% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase investments in mainland China [7] - Approximately 78% of Asia-Pacific family offices prefer active investment strategies to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns [7] Group 5 - The development of family offices in China is driven by rapid economic growth and the need for wealth management tools for succession planning [8] - China's ongoing high-level opening-up policies and the dual drivers of consumption and technology are creating fertile investment opportunities [8] - The current market conditions present opportunities for investors to capitalize on valuation gaps and achieve cost-effective positioning [8]

Core Insights - UBS conducted a global family office survey with 317 participants, revealing a historical high in wealth scale and a trend of increasing total net worth among family offices since 2020 [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Trends - Family offices are reducing cash allocations, with a planned cash holding of only 6% by 2025, shifting towards global equities due to low cash yields [2] - There is a significant increase in private debt investments among family offices to enhance returns and diversify portfolios, with 48% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase developed market equities [3] - Approximately one-third of family offices plan to increase allocations to gold and precious metals, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, where the interest is notably high [4] Group 2: Interest in Chinese Assets - Global family offices show increasing interest in Chinese assets, with 19% planning to allocate more to this region, a 3 percentage point increase from 2024 [5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, 30% of family offices intend to increase their allocation to China, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, with the Middle East showing the highest interest at 45% [5][6] - China and India are identified as the most favored emerging market destinations for investment over the next 12 months, with 39% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase their holdings in mainland China [7] Group 3: Long-term Investment Focus - Family offices prefer active management strategies, with 78% in the Asia-Pacific region employing such approaches, focusing on sectors like pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [8] - There is a strong emphasis on sustainable and impact investing, with 44% of global family offices supporting education through charitable means, and 61% in the Asia-Pacific investing in healthcare technology and related projects [8] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - To mitigate potential risks, family offices adopt diversified investment strategies, with 40% employing active management and professional investment managers [9] - Nearly one-third of family offices utilize hedge funds to manage market volatility, while others increase allocations to illiquid assets, high-quality fixed income, and precious metals to enhance portfolio resilience [9]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is undergoing a transformation, prompting investors and policymakers to act cautiously amid uncertain policies and market volatility. Despite these challenges, major economies remain resilient, and central bank interest rate cuts are expected to create opportunities in global equities [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. real GDP growth is projected to slow from nearly 3% in 2023-2024 to 1.6% in 2025, primarily due to weakening private demand and the impact of tariffs on prices and consumer confidence [2]. - Average tariffs of approximately 15% are expected to cause economic losses and a temporary rise in inflation, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut interest rates three times in the latter half of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The rising geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs and reduced commitments to European security, may lead to increased unity in Europe as countries seek new trade agreements and recognize the advantages of collective negotiation [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - Despite a bleak growth outlook, corporate performance is expected to remain strong, supporting a slightly aggressive asset allocation and inflation-hedging strategies. The focus will be on global equities, commodities, gold, and infrastructure investments for stable cash flows [4]. - The changing correlation between the dollar, stocks, and bonds highlights the importance of diversifying currency allocations [4]. Group 4: Bond Market Insights - Investors are likely to demand higher premiums on U.S. Treasuries due to unclear trade policies and rising public debt. The central bank's interest rate cuts will support short-term bonds, benefiting European and emerging market bonds [5]. Group 5: Stock Market Considerations - Stocks may record low single-digit returns in the latter half of the year, with industry selection becoming crucial. The attractiveness of the European market is expected to benefit small-cap stocks, with a focus on domestic-driven sectors to mitigate tariff risks [6]. Group 6: Emerging Markets Opportunities - Emerging market stocks are anticipated to gain traction in the latter half of 2025, with India and ASEAN becoming key beneficiaries of global supply chain shifts. The "Make in India" initiative is attracting multinational companies, particularly in defense and IT sectors [7]. Group 7: Alternative Investments - The challenging geopolitical environment is prompting investors to diversify into private and alternative assets, with private debt and infrastructure expected to remain attractive due to strong direct lending and fundraising [8].