1月26日，周一，亚欧时段，现货黄金震荡上行，现交投于每盎司5096美元附近。此前一度创下5111美 元附近的历史新高，延续前五个交易日涨势。随着投资者在持续的地缘政治和贸易相关不确定性中继续 寻求传统避险资产，金价仍持看涨倾向。此外，美联储进一步放松政策的前景、各国央行的持续买入以 及交易所交易基金的创纪录资金流入，都为金价的持续上涨提供了支撑。 技术面：上周五笔者给出提示，黄金价格回撤4900附近多，可以操作波段100-200点。其次在后续走势 中多次提示回撤多看波段5000美元及更上方5100美元附近。周初早间黄金价格暴涨触及5093美元附近承 压后，进行了日内短暂的回撤修复至5052美元附近止跌。在介入到亚欧时段黄金价格再次持续高涨，上 破5100美元之上，触及5111美元附近承压。再次刷新历史高点。短期各盘面时段形态走势仍以多头为 主。建议多关注黄毛唐发表的动态。 1月26日，周一，亚欧时段，现货黄金震荡上行，现交投于每盎司5096美元附近。此前一度创下5111美 元附近的历史新高，延续前五个交易日涨势。随着投资者在持续的地缘政治和贸易相关不确定性中继续 寻求传统避险资产，金价仍持看涨倾向。此外，美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the geopolitical tensions arising from the U.S. military action against Venezuela, which is closely linked to the country's oil resources and is expected to increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - Venezuela has approximately 3,500 tons of potential gold reserves, with a production of 31 tons in 2024, positioning it in the middle tier globally [1] - The U.S. military intervention signifies a strong stance towards resource-rich Latin American countries, potentially threatening the trade flow of key minerals and increasing the geopolitical risk premium on gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend [2] - Long-term factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, declining U.S. dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold indicate that the bullish trend for gold and silver remains unchanged [2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to its industrial and strategic resource attributes [2]

Group 1 - The SPDR Gold Trust reported a holding of 1,064.56 tons of gold as of December 22, with an increase of 12.02 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On December 22, the spot gold price closed at $4,442.41 per ounce, reflecting a 2.39% increase, with an intraday high of $4,448.89 and a low of $4,336.91 [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [3] - Tensions escalated following President Trump's order to "lock down" sanctioned oil tankers related to Venezuela, and reports indicated Washington's preparation for further sanctions on Russia's energy sector if peace talks in Ukraine fail [3] - Central banks worldwide have continued to purchase gold, with a net increase of 53 tons in official gold reserves reported in October, marking the largest monthly net demand for gold this year [3] - For the first ten months of the year, global central banks reported a net purchase of 254 tons of gold, maintaining solid positive growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a significant drop on October 22, with both spot gold and gold futures prices plummeting, marking the largest single-day decline since August 2020, primarily due to profit-taking by investors, a stronger dollar, and a rebound in market risk appetite [1][3]. Price Movement - On October 22, spot gold prices fell by 5.5%, closing at $4,115.26 per ounce, the lowest level in a week [1] - December gold futures dropped by 5.7%, settling at $4,109.10 per ounce, representing the largest single-day decline since August 2020 [1][3]. Preceding Bull Market Factors - The gold price surge prior to the drop was driven by three main factors: 1. Increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, making gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [3][5]. 2. Geopolitical uncertainties leading to heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [5]. 3. Central banks' ongoing gold purchases to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on a single currency, providing long-term support for gold prices [5]. Trigger for the Drop - The immediate cause of the price drop was concentrated profit-taking by investors, as indicated by a significant shift in market sentiment following the recent peak [7]. - The dollar index rose by 0.4%, increasing the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, which added downward pressure on prices [7]. Market Reaction - The decline in gold prices triggered a chain reaction in the precious metals market, with silver, platinum, and palladium also experiencing significant sell-offs [7]. - Silver saw the most substantial drop, falling by 7.6% to $48.49 per ounce, while platinum and palladium dropped by 5.9% and 5.3%, respectively [7][8]. Future Outlook - Investors are now focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report, with expectations of a 3.1% year-over-year increase in inflation, which could reinforce predictions of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8]. - Long-term support for gold remains strong if the Fed proceeds with rate cuts, although short-term volatility is expected as profit-taking continues and market reactions to economic data unfold [8].

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver prices on October 21 is attributed to profit-taking, easing global trade tensions, and a stronger US dollar, which has made precious metals more expensive for buyers [1][3]. Price Movements - On October 21, spot gold experienced a drop of over 5%, falling below $4,130 per ounce, marking the largest daily decline since August 2020. Spot silver saw an even larger decline, dropping over 7% and falling below $49 per ounce [1][3]. - Prior to this drop, gold had surged nearly 3% to surpass $4,300 per ounce on October 16, and silver had increased over 2% to exceed $54 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [3]. Market Influences - Analysts indicate that profit-taking and a reduction in safe-haven demand due to easing trade tensions are primary factors behind the recent price declines. Additionally, news regarding the potential end of the US government shutdown has further diminished market risk aversion [3][5]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also introduced volatility in the gold market, with European leaders expressing strong support for a ceasefire and increased pressure on Russia [1]. Future Outlook - Analysts from WisdomTree and UBS suggest that while gold prices may continue to rise, the current pace of increase is aggressive, leading to potential pullbacks whenever new highs are reached [5]. - HSBC forecasts that the momentum for gold prices could persist until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the US, with a target price of $5,000 per ounce [6]. - Long-term bullish sentiment on gold remains intact, with factors such as US fiscal deficits and the depreciation of the dollar continuing to support gold as a hedge against currency weakness [6][7].