新华财经北京9月2日电两大基本面利多驱动下，周二（9月2日）亚洲交易时段，国际现货金价强势冲高 并突破3500美元／盎司关口，短短一周涨超100美元，再创历史新高。 另从美元信用方面来看，近期美联储理事库克被美国总统特朗普免职，引发了市场对美联储独立性的质 疑，进一步削弱了市场对美元资产的信心。 对于黄金市场而言，在全球贸易摩擦未见根本缓和，从而带来再通胀预期，以及各主要经济体宽松的货 币政策，将令黄金继续受益。与此同时，全球地缘政治风险将继续助推市场的避险需求，尤其是中东局 势继续恶化、俄乌冲突持续。此外，全球央行继续增持黄金，不仅仅是为了外汇储备的多元化，更是对 冲美元信用下降的风险。黄金作为传统的避险资产，其长期需求仍将持续得到市场的追捧，牛市行情仍 有望延续。 展望本周，市场关注焦点除地缘政治局势进展外，周五美国即将公布的8月非农就业数据，也将对本周 黄金走势产生一定影响。从技术面来看，黄金一举突破前期重要压力3450~3455美元／盎司区域并再度 冲击3500美元／盎司整数关口，表明短期上行动能较为强劲，上方关注3550~3570美元／盎司区域压力 强度；下行关注3450~3455美元／盎司区间支撑 ...

为持续向投资者普及ETF基础知识，招商证券携手十大基金公司，联合全景网共同举办2025年招商证 券"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播，旨在帮助投资者提升资产配置与风险管理能力，促进ETF市场的健 康发展。 2025年6月19日，"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播邀请到了博时基金指数与量化投资部基金经理王祥、 博时基金投资者关系部首席培训官洪露娉一起探讨《从下跌到快速反弹，金价的"涨跌密码"是什 么？》。 王祥认为，美国关税政策调整、俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等，本质是对于现有的经济秩序和美元背后的背书 产生了冲击，黄金作为避险资产能够对冲风险，同时它又有货币资产属性基础在里面，具备比较长期的 配置价值。即使局部的拥挤度过热，短期价格触及历史高位，但也很难出现比较明显的调整。 去全球化、国际运转秩序裂缝 黄金中长期逻辑一直存在 洪露娉：黄金近两年市场表现较好，也获得了很多投资者的青睐。近期国际黄金市场在下跌后又快速反 弹，您认为是哪些因素导致的？ 王祥：黄金市场这两年的走势确实比我们预期的最乐观的局面还要走得更强一点。年初我们对于黄金年 度的涨幅预期是20%左右，现在已经明显超出了，而且站上3,000美元以后，走势仍然较为 ...

世界黄金协会7月31日发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在高金价环境下，二季度 全球黄金需求总量（包含场外买卖）达1249吨，同比增加3%。黄金ETF投资仍是推高黄金总需求的关 键驱动力，二季度流入量达170吨。上半年全球黄金ETF需求总量达397吨，创下自2020年以来的最高上 半年纪录。 今年以来，黄金价格继续走高，带动了金银比的继续上行，年内金银比最高已达100以上，跟着近期黄 金价格开始震动，白银的价格逐渐开始提升以修复金银比，到2025年7月25日，金银比现已回落至 86.13，但相对2024年均值仍有必定空间，一起在国际形势不稳定的宏观背景下，对黄金继续看好，一 起美元全球位置逐渐动摇的长时间逻辑正在加速落地，有望对金价带来持久的推进，金价上行也将继续 拉高金银比，继续推进银价上行。 谦恒策略以为，美国6月失业率也下行至4.1%，低于预期与前值，叠加近期美国对欧盟、墨西哥等关税 方针又有反复，全体通胀预期端难以出现大幅下行，估计将对金价形成必定支撑。另外，近期特朗普屡 次表态期望"美联储降息"，并且美联储多位官员对降息的情绪现已松动，目前市场预期9月降息重启的 背景下，降息预期发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from the European Central Bank indicates that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, following the US dollar, as central banks diversify their foreign exchange reserves to mitigate geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2024, central banks' net gold purchases reached 1,045 tons, marking the third consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons, which is double the average annual purchase in the 2010s [2]. - The total gold holdings of central banks have now reached 36,000 tons, with demand remaining at historical highs, accounting for over 20% of global demand [2][4]. - A survey indicated that 29% of participating central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2018 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Economic Factors - The current gold bull market is driven by concerns over the declining creditworthiness of the US dollar, geopolitical tensions, and fears of economic recession, similar to the conditions during the 1970s and 1980s [3]. - The actual gold price in 2024 has surpassed the peak during the 1979 oil crisis when adjusted for inflation, indicating strong market support for gold [2]. - 69% of surveyed central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will increase over the next five years, while 62% expect a decrease in the dollar's share [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for gold from central banks is expected to continue in the medium to long term, particularly in light of potential risks associated with US debt and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - There remains significant room for increasing the share of gold reserves in foreign exchange reserves, with developed economies holding approximately 17.3% and emerging markets around 10.4% [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish outlook on gold prices in the medium to long term, driven by factors such as rising U.S. debt, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increasing global geopolitical risks [2][3][4] - As of May 22, spot gold prices reached a new high of $3,340 per ounce, with fluctuations around $3,303 per ounce reported on May 23 [1] - The U.S. national debt has surged to $36.2 trillion, prompting concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and leading to a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) experienced a decline of 0.71% on May 23, with management and custody fees lower than the average for similar products, and it supports T+0 trading [2] - UBS forecasts that gold prices could reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year, with a potential peak of $3,800 per ounce in a risk-off scenario [2] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices may occur due to profit-taking by investors, but the long-term trend remains upward due to declining dollar credit and increased central bank gold purchases [3][4]