Core Viewpoint - The report from the European Central Bank indicates that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, following the US dollar, as central banks diversify their foreign exchange reserves to mitigate geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2024, central banks' net gold purchases reached 1,045 tons, marking the third consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons, which is double the average annual purchase in the 2010s [2]. - The total gold holdings of central banks have now reached 36,000 tons, with demand remaining at historical highs, accounting for over 20% of global demand [2][4]. - A survey indicated that 29% of participating central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2018 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Economic Factors - The current gold bull market is driven by concerns over the declining creditworthiness of the US dollar, geopolitical tensions, and fears of economic recession, similar to the conditions during the 1970s and 1980s [3]. - The actual gold price in 2024 has surpassed the peak during the 1979 oil crisis when adjusted for inflation, indicating strong market support for gold [2]. - 69% of surveyed central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will increase over the next five years, while 62% expect a decrease in the dollar's share [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for gold from central banks is expected to continue in the medium to long term, particularly in light of potential risks associated with US debt and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - There remains significant room for increasing the share of gold reserves in foreign exchange reserves, with developed economies holding approximately 17.3% and emerging markets around 10.4% [6].

5月22日，现货黄金盘中一度突破3340美元/盎司，续创5月9日来新高。5月23日，截至发稿，现货黄金 在3303美元/盎司附近震荡上涨。 相关ETF方面，5月23日，上海金ETF（159830）跌幅0.71%。 上海金ETF（159830）紧密跟踪上海金（SHAU.SGE）；费率方面，上海金ETF（159830）管理费率 0.25%，基金托管费率为0.05%，均低于同标的产品平均水平，同时该ETF支持T+0交易。 消息面上，据新华社，美国会众议院通过大规模减税法案，国债恐继续激增。共和党议员占多数的美国 国会众议院22日以微弱优势通过一项大规模税收与支出法案。美国联邦预算问责委员会此前警告，该法 案将大幅推高联邦债务。最新数据显示，美国国债规模已攀升至36.2万亿美元。国际信用评级机构穆迪 公司16日宣布，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至 Aa1。 展望后市，据21世纪经济报道此前消息，瑞银预计，今年底金价仍或将达到3500美元/盎司，在上行 （避险）情景下有望到达3800美元/盎司。 华福证券指出，短期看，一方面部分全球风险事件边际暂缓，同时考虑到部分投资者获利了 ...