责任编辑：陈平 2月20日，在全球宏观经济面临转型的关键时刻，FXGT表示，黄金与白银正迈入一场具有历史意义的 长周期牛市。尽管市场共识认为金价与银价在未来几年有望分别向10000美元和300美元的历史性关口发 起冲击，但投资者必须时刻警惕过程中伴随的剧烈波动。这种波动并非牛市终结的信号，而是市场向上 运行过程中的必要震荡。 针对近期的价格走势，金价在创下5600美元纪录后的技术性回调属于健康的清洗过程。事实数据表明， 全球债务总量已逼近350万亿美元的惊人规模，这一背景下，各国央行通过货币化手段缓解债务压力的 意愿愈发明显。FXGT表示，随着美联储等主要央行在通胀背景下或被迫重新审视利率政策，黄金作为 资产避风港及"全球替代货币"的地位将进一步巩固。由于现代GDP统计中包含了大量非生产性支出，货 币增发的速度远超实际经济增长，这正是黄金价值加速重估的根本逻辑。 而在贵金属的细分赛道中，FXGT认为白银的爆发潜力不容忽视。目前的实物供需缺口已达到临界点， 加之白银在工业领域无可替代的刚性需求，市场极易因实物短缺而在短期内引发价格翻倍。此外，矿业 股票的估值洼地亦提供了极具吸引力的配置机会。FXGT表示，目前的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the silver market, particularly the performance of the Guotou Silver LOF fund, have drawn attention due to significant price adjustments and investor concerns following international silver price declines [5][11]. Market Performance - On February 9, Guotou Silver LOF experienced a volatile trading session, initially hitting the daily limit down before rebounding to a peak increase of 8%, ultimately closing with a gain of 6.45% [7]. - International spot gold and silver prices surged, with spot gold rising over 1.5% to exceed $5040 per ounce, and spot silver increasing by over 4% to touch $81 per ounce [3][9]. - Domestic precious metal futures also saw significant gains, with platinum rising over 9% and Shanghai silver increasing over 8% [3]. Fund Valuation Adjustments - On February 2, Guotou Ruijin Fund announced a valuation adjustment for the Guotou Silver LOF due to a significant discrepancy between international silver prices and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures prices [5][11]. - The fund's valuation will now reference international market prices at 3 PM to better reflect asset values [11]. Investor Communication - In response to investor concerns, Guotou Ruijin Fund emphasized its commitment to prioritizing investor interests and has established a dedicated task force to address investor grievances through various resolution channels [6][11]. - The fund reassured investors of its capability to protect their legal rights amid the market's short-term volatility [6][11]. Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, some institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for gold and silver prices, citing factors such as the potential for interest rate cuts and a return to rational valuation attracting bottom-fishing capital [6][11]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments do not indicate a trend reversal, and the long-term bullish logic for gold and silver remains intact [6][11].

▲ATFX图 直到周二亚市时段，黄金和白银开始了反弹，市场开始评估此前破纪录涨势突然回落的走势。现货黄金 一度上涨4.2%，突破每盎司4855美元；白银一度上涨8.1%，突破每盎司85美元，此前周一下跌7%，并 在1月30日创下盘中历史新低。由于长期上升趋势依然完好，金价仍保持在关键技术支撑位上方。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 2月3日，ATFX：自上周特朗普总统提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席后，市场对降息的预期受到冲 击，周一的黄金价格延续了上周五十多年来的最大跌幅。周一公布的美国制造业经济活动改善，根据供 应管理协会（ISM）的数据，制造业活动已达到2022年以来的最高水平。提振收益率和美元，使得黄金 价格维持在5000美元关口以下。 现货黄金价格在1月30日暴跌近10%，创下1983年以来最大跌幅，跌破几天前刚刚触及的每盎司5000美 元的历史大关，抹去了今年以来的大部分涨幅。白银在同一交易日下跌27%，创下历史最大跌幅。 上个月贵金属价格飙升至历史新高，其迅猛上涨甚至令经验丰富的交易员都感到意外。投资者纷纷涌入 黄金和白银市场，原因是他们对地缘政治动荡、货币贬值以及美联储独立性受到威胁的担忧再度升温 ...

Core Viewpoint - The defensive position of the US dollar is facing significant challenges as the current US government adopts a more laissez-faire stance on the dollar's exchange rate, leading to substantial fluctuations in the dollar index (DXY) which recently dropped 125 basis points to around 95.8, the lowest level since early 2022 [1][2] Group 1: Dollar and Market Dynamics - The recent policy direction has injected strong momentum into safe-haven assets, resulting in a nearly frenzied rise in gold and silver prices at the end of January [1][2] - The dollar's decline, combined with strategic accumulation by institutions like Tether, forms the underlying logic for the gold and silver bull market at the beginning of 2026 [4] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Trends - Gold prices have surged to $5,250 per ounce, while silver has reached $115 per ounce, underscoring the irreplaceable safe-haven attributes of precious metals in the current uncertain environment [4] - Tether significantly increased its gold holdings by approximately 27 tons in Q4 2025, raising its total reserves to about 104 tons, indicating a shift in demand driven by crypto asset giants [3] - The market for tokenized gold assets (XAUT) has surpassed $2.3 billion, while the market cap for the mainstream stablecoin USDT has exceeded $180 billion, altering the pricing dynamics of precious metals [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the January meeting, aligning with market expectations, and is not expected to reopen the rate cut window until June, creating a "policy vacuum" that supports gold and silver prices [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor future government statements regarding exchange rates and the anticipated interest rate cuts in June, as the volatility of precious metal assets is expected to remain high during the dollar's bottoming process [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced a significant surge, with both metals reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest update, London gold reached a peak of $4,967.37 per ounce before slightly retreating to $4,918.783, marking a decrease of 0.35% [1][2]. - London silver showed a more robust performance, increasing by 2.01% to $98.081 per ounce, with a peak of $99.392, nearing the $100 per ounce mark [1][3]. - COMEX gold futures saw a minor increase of 0.03%, trading at $4,915 per ounce, with a high of $4,970 [4]. - COMEX silver futures rose by 1.58%, reaching $97.895 per ounce, with a peak of $99.395 [5]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened safe-haven buying due to geopolitical conflicts, particularly U.S. tariffs on Europe and tensions in the Middle East, alongside a decline in trust towards dollar assets [5][6]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, reducing the holding costs for gold and silver, while global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, providing strong support for gold prices [5][6]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Unlike gold, silver's price increase is driven by both financial and industrial demand, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and renewable energy, leading to a five-year supply shortage [6]. - Factors such as tightening export controls and historically low inventories have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in silver's price elasticity being significantly higher than that of gold [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold and silver markets may enter a phase of short-term volatility while maintaining a long-term upward trend, driven by the interplay between profit-taking and underlying support logic [7]. - Short-term traders are advised to avoid chasing highs and to focus on key support levels, while long-term investors should consider gold and silver as core assets for hedging against dollar risk and geopolitical uncertainties [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced a significant surge, with both metals reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest update, London gold reached a peak of $4,967.37 per ounce before slightly retreating to $4,918.783, marking a decrease of 0.35% [1][2]. - London silver showed a more robust performance, increasing by 2.01% to $98.081 per ounce, with a high of $99.392, just shy of the $100 mark [1][3]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.03% to $4,915 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4,970 [4]. - COMEX silver futures surged by 1.58% to $97.895 per ounce, reaching a peak of $99.395 [5]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to tariffs imposed by the U.S. and conflicts in the Middle East [5][6]. - A decline in trust towards dollar-denominated assets has led to increased investment in gold and silver as safe-haven assets [5]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, reducing the holding costs for gold and silver, while central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, providing strong support for prices [5][6]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Unlike gold, silver's price increase is driven by both financial and industrial demand, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and new energy, leading to a continuous supply shortage over the past five years [6]. - Factors such as tightening export controls and historically low inventories have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in silver's price elasticity being significantly higher than that of gold [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may enter a phase of short-term volatility while maintaining a long-term upward trend, influenced by profit-taking and underlying support dynamics [7]. - Short-term traders are advised to avoid chasing highs and to focus on key support levels, while long-term investors should consider gold and silver as hedges against dollar risk and geopolitical uncertainties [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamental factors supporting the bull market in gold and silver remain unchanged, and new supporting factors are emerging. After a period of consolidation, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to rise again and reach new historical highs [6][7] 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver first declined and then rebounded. By the end of last Friday, the international gold price returned above $4,500 per ounce, and the international silver price returned to $79.7 per ounce [2] Short - term Negative Factors - According to Bloomberg's 2026 weight configuration, the weight of silver will be significantly reduced from the current 9.6% to 3.94%, forcing funds and ETFs tracking the index to sell a large number of silver positions. The CME raised the performance margin for precious metals on January 8, which is the third such notice in nearly a month, having a short - term negative impact on precious metal prices. Before the release of the December 2025 non - farm payroll data, the market was cautious, leading to a short - term pullback in gold and silver prices [3] Impact of Non - farm Payroll Data - The December 2025 non - farm payroll report showed that the number of new jobs added was 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 70,000. The data for November was revised down from 64,000 to 56,000, and the data for October was revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000, with a total downward revision of 76,000 for the two months. The new job growth was the weakest since 2003. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest level in 2025, reflecting some resilience in the labor market. However, in 2025, the total number of new jobs added was 584,000, far lower than 2 million in 2024, the weakest increase since 2020. After the release of the report, the probability of a rate cut in January dropped from 10% to nearly 0%, and the probability in March dropped to 30%, with the first expected rate cut postponed to June 2026. Although the non - farm payroll report reduced the short - term probability of a rate cut, gold prices rose instead of falling, indicating that the negative news had been priced in. In the medium term, the weakening of the US job market supports the continuation of the gold and silver bull market [4][5] Fundamental Support - The continuous rise in precious metal prices is supported by fundamentals. The international situation is becoming more volatile, which promotes the rise in gold prices. The supply - demand situation of silver remains tight, and China's restriction on refined silver exports since January 1 may exacerbate the global supply shortage [6][7]

Group 1 - The silver market is struggling to maintain prices above $80 per ounce despite a strong start to the new year, primarily due to margin adjustments by the CME Group leading to sell-offs [2] - Fund manager Jen Bawden predicts silver prices could rise to $200 per ounce, citing a physical supply shortage exacerbated by China's export restrictions, which affect approximately 70% of global supply [2] - The competition for the remaining 22,000 tons of silver in London is intensifying among China, the solar industry, and central banks, indicating a shift towards a national security issue [2] Group 2 - Current price fluctuations in London silver are enhancing bullish momentum, supported by positive signals from the relative strength index after reaching oversold levels [3] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for silver and gold due to factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, declining dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2] - Bawden views any price pullbacks as long-term buying opportunities and is optimistic about the prospects of silver mining companies, holding positions in several silver-related stocks and ETFs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the geopolitical tensions arising from the U.S. military action against Venezuela, which is closely linked to the country's oil resources and is expected to increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - Venezuela has approximately 3,500 tons of potential gold reserves, with a production of 31 tons in 2024, positioning it in the middle tier globally [1] - The U.S. military intervention signifies a strong stance towards resource-rich Latin American countries, potentially threatening the trade flow of key minerals and increasing the geopolitical risk premium on gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend [2] - Long-term factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, declining U.S. dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold indicate that the bullish trend for gold and silver remains unchanged [2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to its industrial and strategic resource attributes [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market has shown little change at the beginning of 2026 compared to 2025, with rising global stock markets and significant increases in gold and silver prices continuing their historic bull market [1] - Gold prices surged by 2.7% to $4444.52 per ounce in the first complete trading week of the new year, nearing the record high of $4550 set on December 26 [1] - Silver prices experienced a dramatic increase, jumping 5.1% in one day and approaching the $80 mark, with the Shanghai silver futures contract rising by 8.00% to ¥19630.00 per kilogram [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela, including the arrest of President Maduro, is viewed as a key factor driving the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets [2] - Analysts suggest that if geopolitical tensions escalate or if upcoming U.S. data indicates a need for more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may reach new record highs [2] - The situation in Venezuela is seen as a catalyst for further price increases in gold and silver, which have already seen substantial gains of 64% and 147% respectively over the past year [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently supported above the trend line of the latest bull market, with support at around $4300 and resistance at the historical high from December [3] - Silver has entered a parabolic uptrend, with a steep short-term upward trajectory and support at approximately $72, while also facing resistance at historical highs [11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The non-commercial net long positions in gold have increased, but remain low relative to gold price performance, primarily held by speculators [4] - In silver, non-commercial net positions have missed one of the most extreme short squeeze events, indicating strong underlying buying interest [14] - The volatility index for silver has reached unstable levels, suggesting a high-risk environment for pricing [15] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts from Crescat Capital remain bullish on the silver market, suggesting that the current rally is far from over despite market consensus leaning towards mean reversion [18] - UBS highlights the dual risks facing the gold-silver ratio, with potential scenarios that could lead to significant price movements for silver based on industrial demand and inflation concerns [22]