Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver prices on October 21 is attributed to profit-taking, easing global trade tensions, and a stronger US dollar, which has made precious metals more expensive for buyers [1][3]. Price Movements - On October 21, spot gold experienced a drop of over 5%, falling below $4,130 per ounce, marking the largest daily decline since August 2020. Spot silver saw an even larger decline, dropping over 7% and falling below $49 per ounce [1][3]. - Prior to this drop, gold had surged nearly 3% to surpass $4,300 per ounce on October 16, and silver had increased over 2% to exceed $54 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [3]. Market Influences - Analysts indicate that profit-taking and a reduction in safe-haven demand due to easing trade tensions are primary factors behind the recent price declines. Additionally, news regarding the potential end of the US government shutdown has further diminished market risk aversion [3][5]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also introduced volatility in the gold market, with European leaders expressing strong support for a ceasefire and increased pressure on Russia [1]. Future Outlook - Analysts from WisdomTree and UBS suggest that while gold prices may continue to rise, the current pace of increase is aggressive, leading to potential pullbacks whenever new highs are reached [5]. - HSBC forecasts that the momentum for gold prices could persist until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the US, with a target price of $5,000 per ounce [6]. - Long-term bullish sentiment on gold remains intact, with factors such as US fiscal deficits and the depreciation of the dollar continuing to support gold as a hedge against currency weakness [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking, easing global trade tensions, and a stronger US dollar, which has made precious metals more expensive for buyers [1][3][5]. Price Movements - On October 16, gold prices surged nearly 3% to over $4300 per ounce, while silver rose over 2% to above $54 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [3]. - On October 21, gold prices fell over 5%, dropping below $4130 per ounce, and silver prices fell nearly 8%, dropping below $49 per ounce [1][3]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop is a result of profit-taking and a reduction in safe-haven demand due to easing trade tensions and potential resolution of the US government shutdown [3][4]. - Despite the recent declines, analysts believe that gold prices will continue to rise in the long term due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors [5][6]. Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the US, with a target price of $5000 per ounce [6]. - Analysts from UBS and other institutions predict that gold could reach $4700 per ounce, supported by political and trade uncertainties, declining real interest rates, and rising government debt [5][6][7].

Market Overview - Current gold price is reported at $3387.48 per ounce, with an increase of $18.29, representing a 0.54% rise, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to trade disputes involving the U.S. and India [1] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has further supported gold prices, although a rebound in the U.S. dollar and rising stock markets have somewhat limited the price increase [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart indicates that gold is trading above the middle Bollinger Band, with MACD showing a bullish crossover and RSI indicating a rebound from oversold conditions, suggesting a clear demand for a price recovery [1] - On the 4-hour chart, gold is positioned below the upper Bollinger Band, with initial signs of a bearish crossover in MACD and RSI indicating a retreat from overbought conditions, highlighting a need to monitor support at $3300 and resistance at $3400 [1] - The 1-hour chart shows gold trading below the upper Bollinger Band, with MACD lines in a state of indecision and RSI indicating a pullback from overbought levels, suggesting a potential for price retracement with support at $3300 and resistance at $3400 [1] Future Trading Strategies - For aggressive traders, a long position can be initiated near the $3300 support level, with a target range of $3315-$3325 [3] - Conservative traders may consider entering long positions at the $3250 support level, targeting $3270-$3280 [3] - For short positions, aggressive traders can look to sell near the $3400 resistance, targeting $3395-$3385, while conservative traders may wait for a stronger resistance at $3450, targeting $3445-$3435 [3] Gold Market Sentiment - The gold futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term due to the influence of rising international gold prices [3] - The linked gold products are also expected to be supported by rising safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, while long-term investments in gold accumulation are favored due to anticipated interest rate cuts [3] - Overall, the gold market is supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing trade tensions, but future price movements will depend on subsequent developments in the news [3]